NLHE Foundations Course #02: Hand Analysis

[spoonitnow]

Villain - 33/29. ATS 90% from BU, FT3B after stealing 57%.


ATS 90% - Range: 22+(78), A2s+(48), K2s+(44), Q2s+(40), J2s+(36), T2s+(32)

92s+(28), 82s+(24), 72s+(20), 62s+(16), 52s+(12), 42s+(8), 32s(4), A2o+(192)

K2o+(176), Q2o+(160), J2o+(144), T4o+(96), 94o+(80), 84o+(64), 74o+(48),

63o+(48), 52o+(48), 42o+(32), 32o(16) - 1494 combos


Folding 57% - Folding Range: K2s-K7s(24), Q2s-Q7s(24), J2s-J7s(24),

T2s-T6s(20), 92s-96s(20), 82-86s(20), 72s-75s(16), 62s-64s(12), 52s-53s(8)

42s+(8), 32s(4), K2o-K8o(112), Q2o-Q8o(112), J2o-J8o(112),

T4o-T7o(64), 94o-97o(64), 84o-86o(48), 74o-75o(32), 63o-64o(32), 52o+(48),

42o+(32), 32o(16) - 852 combos.


852/1494 = 57%


Villain is continuing w/ something like - 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s,

A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o.


3bet range should be merged - value heavy. 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+.

How does this look guys? It almost seems silly to suggest we could 3bet hands like QJs and KJo for value but I feel like villain is continuing so wide that we crush him with most broadways. Could we 3bet even wider?

Just remember that your pre-flop equity against his range doesn't tell the whole story when it comes to the EV of 3-betting.

[Cobra_1878]

Just remember that your pre-flop equity against his range doesn't tell the whole story when it comes to the EV of 3-betting.

Missed this somehow - can you talk a little bit more about this please Spoon?

[spoonitnow]

Missed this somehow - can you talk a little bit more about this please Spoon?

People just tend to think that EV and equity are the same thing and assume that having an equity advantage translates directly to an EV advantage when it doesn't.

For an example, suppose I'm 3-betting only for value (ie: a depolarized or "merged" range), and I have 60 percent equity against my opponent's calling range. If I play my range poorly, and he plays his range well, then it can be -EV for me overall.

There are lots of advantages that can be had in poker, but those advantages really only tell you who will come out on top if both sides play equally well. Position (like equity) is another good example of an advantage that can be squandered if you don't play sufficiently better than your opponent.