Quote Originally Posted by othd13 View Post
i think villain seem nits and his cold call range on big blind like this:AQ-AJ(32),KQ(3*4=12),77->TT(24),T9s,QJs,ATs(12),KJs(3)
-> total :83 combo
on flop 4h, Qs, 9h he will continew with this range(I) :77-TT(24),T9s,QJs,KJs(4+4+3=11),KQ(12),AQ(16), AhTh(1)
-> 64 combo
-> his fold frequency : 19/83=24%

with this bet size of hero on flop need 21/66=32% oppoent fold to make this move is profitable
24<32-> this bluff cbet here is not good

If we think this opponent fold his bottaim pairs+ gutshot his range continew like this:99-TT(12),T9s,QJs(8),KQ(12),KhJh,AhTh(2),AQ(16)
total: 50combo-> his fold frequency on this case(II): 33/83=39,7% and we need only 32% fold frequency wiht betsize on flop-> with case(II) is a profitable move bluff on flop
A quick look over your work looks about right. Just remember that you can do this type of analysis every single time you're deciding on a bluff, whether it's your hand or a hand that you're analyzing that was posted in the Small Stakes NLHE forum here.