OK, the hand I found is semi-bluff turn in position w/ 97s. They don't fold much at 2nl, so I don't bluff much. I'll analyze preflop as is, but I want to look at the turn as if I had 99 instead. I have two reasons for this:

  1. Calling the 3bet preflop with 97s is questionable.
  2. This line/board/villain has been causing me problems with hands like 99 and 88 when I get 3bet preflop and catch high card flops.


BB is 22/18 over 139 hands with 15% 3bet vs. steal attempts (2/13 opportunities).


UTG: 56 BB
CO: 100 BB
Hero (BTN): 211.5 BB
SB: 114 BB
BB: 170.5 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 139)


SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 9


fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB raises to 5 BB, Hero calls 3 BB


Flop: (10.5 BB, 2 players) A 2 T
BB bets 6.5 BB, Hero calls 6.5 BB


Turn: (23.5 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 11 BB


Preflop. If he does 3bet approximately 15% vs. steals, we're looking for about 200 combos, something like:

88+ (42 combos)
A9+ (80 combos)
A2s+ (32 combos)
KQ, KJs (20 combos)
76s+ (24 combos)

which gives 198 combos or 14.9% of the 1326 possible opening combos. I'll make the note that 97s has only 35% equity against this range, a lot of ground to make up. Fold preflop is better than calling.

Flop. He cbets 78% (7/9 chances). We don't have his cbet flop after 3bet percentage, because he hadn't been in that situation yet in this sample. His flop aggression frequency is 60% and flop AF = 9.0. After cbetting the flop, I think he could have the following:

  1. Big hands: AA, TT, AT, A2 (24 combos)
  2. PP's: KK, QQ, JJ, 99, 88 (25 combos)
  3. Straight Draws: KQ, KJs, QJs (using all 4 combos of KJs/QJs => 24 combos)
  4. Flush Draws: 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h (0 combos, since I have 9h7h)
  5. Ax (67 combos, none of which can be AhXh since the Ah flopped)
  6. 2nd Pair: JTs, T9s (5 combos)


That's 145 combos, or a bit more than 70% of his opening range. He'll probably just c/f things like 8c7c type hands that totally missed.

Turn. With his aggression so high, it's hard to image him checking the turn with two pair. With this board, he would probably bet AA and KK right out, too, and certainly TT. So here's my range for him on the turn:

  1. KK, QQ, JJ, 99, 88 (24 combos)
  2. KQ, KJs, QJs (19 combos)
  3. Ax (67 combos)
  4. JTs, T9s (5 combos)


Admitting that my turn bet is too small, I think he's continuing with:
  1. KK (3 combos)
  2. KQ, KJs, QJs (19 combos)
  3. AK, AQ, AJ (33 combos)


So he's continuing with 55 of 115 combos, and therefore folding 52.2%.

Hero's bet is 11 BB into a pot of 23.5 BB. So we take 11/34.5 = 32%.

If we think of doing this simply as a bluff (with hands like 88 or 99), the raw bluff should be profitable.