|


He is opening 33 in BU. He is folding to 3bet 46% (0% en BU so far) and he has a 4bet of 20 (6% of his 33OR), so i think a passive defense is better.
My reasoning behind his river range is that his cbet and x/f stats are a little on the low side. So i guess that he is checking with something like second pairs and TP no kicker.
Since the only way i can win this unimproved hand is bluffing, i decide to bluff the turn and river.
I think his range on the river is something like QQ(6), JJ(6), TT(3), KT(9), K9(9), K8s(3), K7s(3).
Given his fold to river bet of 66, i think he is capable of folding a second pair, so his folding range would be: QQ(6), JJ(6), TT(3).
Total range: 39 combos
Folding range: 15 combos
15/39= 0.384
If i bet 1/2 pot i need a 33% success
If i bet 2/3 i need a 40% of success
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $15.20 (60.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $29.79 (119.2 bb)
UTG+1: $25 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $47.35 (189.4 bb)
MP1: $24.65 (98.6 bb)
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
MP3: $27.70 (110.8 bb)
CO: $9.65 (38.6 bb)
BTN: $42.57 (170.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with T A
6 folds, BTN raises to $0.62, SB folds, Hero calls $0.37
Flop: ($1.34) K 3 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: ($1.34) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.64, BTN calls $0.64
River: ($2.62) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.31, BTN folds
|