NLHE Foundations Course #02: Hand Analysis

I think you shouldn't rule out all combos of KK+ from Villain's range.
After all, he has a 3bet of 0. It's only 173 hands, but you haven't yet seen any evidence that Villain ever 3bets PRE, much less 4bets.

After 173 hands, there is still ~25% chance that Villain has simply not been dealt KK+ yet.

Consider including only some of the KK+ combos when you do your calculation.

Ok thanks!
But the best play is to 4Bet KK? I mean there is no reason to balacne your range at 2NL.
Is the rest correct?

Originally Posted by Pursu7it

Ok thanks!
But the best play is to 4Bet KK? I mean there is no reason to balacne your range at 2NL.
Is the rest correct?

It's not about what is best so much as it's about what Villain thinks is best. We don't know for sure what Villain thinks, but most TAG Villains will play aggressively w/ KK+ (in my experience - if yours is different, then go with yours). This is in opposition to the stat that says 3bet 0. As such, I propose a compromise, where maybe you include 1/2 the combos of KK+ (or fewer).

Is the rest correct?
The math looks good to me.
I won't 2nd guess the ranges you assigned to Villain.

EDIT: that last line is a bit odd, given the rest of the post. I mean: The difference is only 1 - 3 combos, which wont effect the %-ages enough to make a significant difference.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $5.40
MP: $10.00
CO: $10.50
BTN: $22.13
SB: $15.39
Hero (BB): $10.55

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K Q

fold, MP raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95, 3 players) 4 5 J
Hero checks, MP bets $0.60, fold, Hero raises to $2.00, fold

Hero wins $2.05

Villain is 19/14. CB 75%.

OK, so villains range when he cbets is something like; AK(12), AQ(12), AJ(12), AT(16) Axdd(8), KQ(9), KJ(9), KT(12), QJ(9), QT(12), JT(12), AA(6), KK(3), QQ(3), JJ(3), TT(6), 99(6), 88(6), 77(6), 66(6), 55(3), 44(3). In total, 194 combos.

Villain folds AK(12), AQ(12), AT(16), KQ(9), KT(12), QT(12), JT(6), TT(6), 99(6), 88(6), 77(6), 66(6). In total, 109 combos.

Hands villain is folding 109. Total combos is 194. 109/194 = 0.56, villain is folding 56% of the time.