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Otherwise TAGG (nit?) BTN has ATS 47% (14/30 times) over 323 hands. Of 8 times when he's faced a 3bet resteal, he has folded all 8.
MP: 106.5 BB
CO: 161.5 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.56, PFR: 14.33, Hands: 323)
SB: 53.5 BB
Hero (BB): 106.5 BB
UTG: 101 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T J
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB
I view a 3bet with JTo as a bluff because he's unlikely to continue with a wide range given his stats. His steal range is probably something like:
22+ (78 combos)
A2+ (208 combos)
K2+ (192 combos)
Q2s+ (44 combos)
Any 2 suited cards 8 or higher not counted above (24 combos)
76s+ (8 combos)
86s+ (8 combos)
Q9o, JTo, J9o, T9o (48 combos)
The above stealing range is 604 combos out of 1326, or 46%. So the percentage of hands is correct. I don't mind suggestions on the actual hands in the range.
Given his TAGG-nit stats, I think he's only continuing with solid hands like:
88+ (42 combos)
AT+ (48 combos)
A9s+ (8 combos)
KQ (16 combos)
KJs (4 combos)
That would be 108 combos (about 8%).
Doing Spoon's quick calculation, I bet 6BB into a pot of 3.5BB. So, 6/9.5 = 63.2%. If he folds more often, we're good. If he's continuing only 108 of 604, he's folding close to 84% of the time.
By the way, I will try to find a hand where I went deeper and then bluffed and post it later.
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