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Villain is one of the more aggressive regs I play against. We have a lot of history PF with 3bs and some postflop 3b pots. Nothing too memorable in single raised pots.
27/20/2.5 40% stl, 7% 3b PF, 25% fold to 3b PF (lol) , folds to flop and turn cbets 40% of the time.
Button ($183.43)
SB ($111.11)
BB ($200)
Hero (UTG) ($205.45)
MP ($293.70)
CO ($86.45)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 , 10
Hero raises $6, MP calls $6, 4 folds
Flop: ($15) 7, Q, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP calls $10
Turn: ($35) K (2 players)
Hero bets $23.33, MP calls $23.33
River: ($81.66) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $44.83, 1 fold
Total pot: $81.66
Results below:
I think once we get to the river his range is QT, QJ, and busted draws most of the time. He may have something like KT or KJ which he floated the flop with and was planning on making a move on the turn if we checked. I highly doubt he has 6c8c/4c6c or has 5cXc as that would have been a raise on the flop from this player. Doubt he has KQ (or sets) due to no raises postflop on this wet board.
Folds:
QT (12)
QJ (12)
Flush draw clubs: A2, A3, A4, A6, A8, A9, AT, AJ,
Flush Draw diamonds: 89, AJ,
34 combos
Calls/Raises:
KT (12), KJ (12), 6d8d (1)
25 combos
59 Combos total. 25/59 = 42% so folding 58% of the time
$44.83 + $81.66 = $126.49
44.83/126.49 = 35% of the he needs to fold to breakeven. From his range he is folding 58% of the time.
I did not include AQ in his calling range as I feel with our dynamics it would’ve been a 3b preflop. Even if we did include AQ, the amount of hands he folds still makes the river bet profitable.
Normally I will get in a situation like this and just think in real time “His range has a lot more Draw/Q hands that he will fold than hands with K or something that may call” without actually doing the math later on. Ofcourse my math could be completely off here lol or didn’t account for some hands he may have in his fold or calling range. Still I like these exercises as it makes you think off the table.
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