NLHE Foundations Course #02: Hand Analysis

[1QDOG7]

Here’s mine…
This is a spot where I was considering a 4-bet bluff. Didn’t have enough hands on villain for any accurate read but he had 3-bet my steals a couple of times. For the sake of this exercise I’ll assume these stats are reliable.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

Hero (BTN): 146.5 BB
SB (SB): 100 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 36)
BB (BB): 142.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG (UTG): 85 BB (VPIP: 28.36, PFR: 17.91, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 71)
CO (CO): 103.5 BB (VPIP: 21.26, PFR: 14.01, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 210)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero:
Jd 6d

fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, fold, Hero?


3B% of 16. As he’s raising my BTN open I’ll assume the wider part of his 3B range which would look like:
33+,A3s+,KTs+,A7o+ = 200 combos
If I 4-bet in this situation this situation I would typically bet just under 3x his raise so I’m considering a 4bet of 35BB.
I estimate he will continue against this raise with a range of:
TT+ AQs+ AKo = 51 combos
So He’s folding 149 combination of starting hands
= Fold frequency of 0.75
My raise makes the pot 54BB. 35/54 = 0.648
0.648 < 0.75 so I’m going to conclude that a bluff in this spot is profitable?
I know the range I’ve given him here is highly debateable given the small sample size and that most opponents will tighten up more than this to a 4-bet, but I just settled on these ranges to practice this week’s lesson.

[MarinaD]

Here’s mine…
This is a spot where I was considering a 4-bet bluff. Didn’t have enough hands on villain for any accurate read but he had 3-bet my steals a couple of times. For the sake of this exercise I’ll assume these stats are reliable.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

Hero (BTN): 146.5 BB
SB (SB): 100 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 36)
BB (BB): 142.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG (UTG): 85 BB (VPIP: 28.36, PFR: 17.91, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 71)
CO (CO): 103.5 BB (VPIP: 21.26, PFR: 14.01, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 210)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero:
Jd 6d

fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, fold, Hero?


3B% of 16. As he’s raising my BTN open I’ll assume the wider part of his 3B range which would look like:
33+,A3s+,KTs+,A7o+ = 200 combos
If I 4-bet in this situation this situation I would typically bet just under 3x his raise so I’m considering a 4bet of 35BB.
I estimate he will continue against this raise with a range of:
TT+ AQs+ AKo = 51 combos
So He’s folding 149 combination of starting hands
= Fold frequency of 0.75
My raise makes the pot 54BB. 35/54 = 0.648
0.648 < 0.75 so I’m going to conclude that a bluff in this spot is profitable?
I know the range I’ve given him here is highly debateable given the small sample size and that most opponents will tighten up more than this to a 4-bet, but I just settled on these ranges to practice this week’s lesson.

I think that there are some mistakes.
Since you've already put 4bb with your open raise, you are only risking 31bb, not 35bb.
The total pot would be = 4bb (your or) + 13bb (his 3bet) + 1bb (the big blind) + 31bb (your 4bet) = 49bb

So 31/49= 0.632

Also, i would make the 4bet a bit smaller. Between 28bb-32bb.

It's difficult to give an unknown villain a 3bet range.
16% can look like:

Yours:
16a.jpg

With more blockers:
16b.jpg

Or some other morphology.

In this case i don't think it's relevant because you are not blocking lots of combos with your J6s and i think his all in range is the same despite his morphology. But your analysis may vary with a hand with blockers like KQ for example.

[1QDOG7]

All good points. Thanks man. More practice needed methinks.