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Originally Posted by johnny_fish
This hand doesn't really matter, I just wanted some insights/comments about pushing draws (or generally 40-60 hands) in general. Fold equity and, to a lesser extent, table image interests me.
Anyway, my reasoning about this particular hand:
His UTG+2 6BB raise indicates AQ+/ JJ+. His flop bet into 3 opps gives further evidence for an overpair.
Board: 4s 5h 6s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.3939 % 38.59% 00.81% { 7h7s }
Hand 2: 60.6061 % 59.80% 00.81% { JJ+ }
EV=F x ( 102+231.8) + (1-F) x .394 x (463.6+49) - 231.8
Assuming F=.50, then EV is +35$, rake not included ( break-even point is at 23%, it almost surely is higher than that, since overcards will fold).
Results: Call by QQ, which held up.
With hindsight, I probably should've raised to 120. That looks less like a semi- bluff, so FE increases.
Did anyone notice Villain could have put me on a trapping AA?
Pushing draws...
I've found that in an agressive NLHE ring game, often times I find that massive pots on the flop are often between a made hand and a big drawing hand. When I get it all-in with a huge draw, I have to be the one pushing (unless I'm getting the correct odds to call a push), the pot should already be large, and if the push being +EV depends on villain folding x% of the time, I have to be confident in that. In hold 'em, draws generally can only compete with made hands on the flop, with 2 cards to come. On the turn they are severely outmatched, which is why you don't want to get a sizeable part of your stack in on the flop, only to miss and be confronted with a large bet on the turn.
On to the actual hand: I like the play. Calling here is out of the question. 77 can only compete with an overpair with 2 cards to come. I wouldn't be strongly opposed to a fold, but I personally think a push is the best play here. It is most certainly a small edge, high variance play, but certainly +EV. To make plays like this you should probably have more than the standard ~15ish buyins because you will definately see some swings with this play.
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