When determining the expected value of a bet, we have to take the likelihood that
villain folds into account. The term used for this is
fold equity. The EV of a bet is defined as
EVbet = (
fold equity)*(pot before our bet) + (1-
fold equity) * (actual
equity* pot after
villain calls - amount to
call)
Simplified this is simply
EVbet = FE * EVfold + (1-FE)*EVcall.
From there, it is easy to see that a good amount of
fold equity can alter the expectation of our hand and
turn what might be a
marginal bet into a good one.
Example: Villain raised ATC on the button but would fold everything but AJ+, TT+ to a raise. Since I had such massive fold equity, i 3b him with a J7s.
Created by
JKDS on 23 Jul, 2009
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