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Fold Equity

Fold Equity

When determining the expected value of a bet, we have to take the likelihood that villain folds into account. The term used for this is fold equity. The EV of a bet is defined as

EVbet = (fold equity)*(pot before our bet) + (1-fold equity) * (actual equity* pot after villain calls - amount to call)

Simplified this is simply

EVbet = FE * EVfold + (1-FE)*EVcall.

From there, it is easy to see that a good amount of fold equity can alter the expectation of our hand and turn what might be a marginal bet into a good one.

Example: Villain raised ATC on the button but would fold everything but AJ+, TT+ to a raise. Since I had such massive fold equity, i 3b him with a J7s.


Created by JKDS on 23 Jul, 2009
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