Villain has opened every
button for 3 orbits:
SB: $10.24 (102.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $17.73 (177.3 bb)
CO: $7.60 (76 bb)
BTN: $11.62 (116.2 bb)
Preflop:
Hero is BB with K
3
CO folds,
BTN raises to $0.25,
SB folds,
Hero calls $0.15
His
range is very wide, we'll just say the
top 50% of hands as an estimate.
Flop: ($0.55) 4
2
7
(2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $0.30,
Hero calls $0.30
He has cbet both of the 2 times I've seen him see a
flop, the sample is too small to be particularly useful, but with the somewhat
loose preflop
stats, I'll give him a wide
range of made hands, semibluffs and
air, let's go with:
22+,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s ,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
Turn: ($1.15) 6
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
When he checks
behind, I'll eliminate from his
range hands he'd want 3 streets of value for like overpairs and sets, plus decent semibluffing hands like
open ended straight draws. That leaves him with
marginal top pair hands, smaller pairs and
air like bare overcards.
33,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s, A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
River: ($1.15) J
(2 players)
The
river comes an
overcard that doesn't
improve any drawing hands. Of his
range above, I think he'll
fold bare overcards and anything else weaker than a
pair of 7s, so his calling or raising
range is:
AJs,A7s,KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,AJo,A7 o,KJo,QJo,JTo
and his folding
range is:
33,AQs+,ATs-A8s,A6s-A2s,KQs,KTs,QTs,AQo+,ATo-A8o,A6o-A2o,KQo,KTo,QTo
That's 214
combos out of 322, or 66% or 2/3. That's a really big percentage - in a vacuum, I could bet twice the pot, risking 2 units to win 3, which would require him to
fold 2/3 of the time. It's not necessary to bet anywhere near that much, and I can make a highly profitable much smaller
bluff of half the pot:
Hero bets $0.60