PTW, i
don't want to come off harshly because you've already taken somewhat of a beating in this thread. but your poker logic seems to be hugely misguided here.
- you advocate folding on the
flop when we have damn near enough
equity to
shove all the money in
for value.
- you advocate folding the
turn when we have enough
equity to make a +EV
call against basically
any range except something like {
TT,88,97}, and he doesn't have 12 of the 16
combos in that
range in his preflop or
flop range anyway (namely 97). and he certainly has weaker hands than these in his
range, like
JJ+.
for a bit of perspective, even if we somehow knew for certain that his
range was
TT,88,
JJ - it would be a +EV
call. obviously the more overpairs we add in, the less statistically likely it is that he has a
set, and the more
equity we have. same can be said for AhKh, AhQh type hands.
- and you seem to be stating that you would take certain actions x% of the time in this
spot -
these spots are +EV 100% of the time, not just 60% or 40% or whatever %.
don't rob yourself of the value by only doing something x amount of the time. determine the EV, and then play your hand accordingly. all the time.
for what it's worth, the only possible way we can really badly fuck this hand up after the
flop comes down is if we
fold at any stage, any % of the time.