Is This Situation Profitable Or Was I Just Being Stupid?

[derekeverett]

O.k. I'm still learning a lot about this stuff.. but obviously I'm not quite there yet. Truth be told I don't feel real good about my play in this hand but at the same time I'm wondering at what point equity makes calling a good idea.

This was only my third hand at this table and I had no reads or data on Villain.

I was going to fold to the SB raise but with the other two callers I figured I was getting close to the pot odds I needed to see a flop.. hoping to hit big in a multi-way pot. Was this mistake #1?

I've been told, and experienced somewhat that SB squeezing represents strength.. this led me to put him on ATs-AKs,AJo-AKo,10's-AA's. Was this mistake #2?

After the fact, I put this flop through Poker Stove and I had 68% equity here against the range I assigned the villain. Does this justify my call here? I'm not real clear on how to determine this. Mistake #3?

I think I was likely already overvaluing the gut-shot straight draw and the turn didn't help that. At this point I'm thinking any heart, 10, or 7 is putting me ahead. 65% equity according to Poker Stove.

Anybody with anything constructive to say here.. I assure you I'm all ears.


$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($8.68)
UTG+1 ($12.38)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($10.56)
CO ($6.65)
hero (BTN) ($10)
SB ($10.05)
BB ($19.14)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) hero is BTN
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, hero calls $0.10, SB raises to $0.80, 1 fold, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.70, CO calls $0.70, hero calls $0.70

Flop: ($3.40, 4 players)
SB bets $2.34, 2 folds, hero calls $2.34

Turn: ($8.08, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $6.91 Hero ???

[thelorax]

calling ip after the pot goes 3way is fine.
you can prob raise/jam(?) flop as you get value from fd's and you have decent equity vs overpairs that prolly arent folding.

[derekeverett]

you can prob raise/jam(?) flop as you get value from fd's and you have decent equity vs overpairs that prolly arent folding.

I was wondering if that was going to be suggested. Looking back I wish that's what I would have done.

[Stacks]

Call turn now. But you don't have 65% equity as you believe you do. What range are you using for SB that gives you 65% equity?

[derekeverett]

Call turn now. But you don't have 65% equity as you believe you do. What range are you using for SB that gives you 65% equity?

Same range that I stated in the OP. (aa,kk,qq,jj,TT,AT-Aks,Aj-Ako)

[thelorax]

once he bets the flop into 3 opponents you can pretty much eliminate most air in his range.
i dont think hes doing this with AQ AJ or AK (unles theyre hh), but reads on villain would be helpful.

Edit: you should think about the range youre assigning a bit more.

[derekeverett]

once he bets the flop into 3 opponents you can pretty much eliminate most air in his range.
i dont think hes doing this with AQ AJ or AK (unles theyre hh), but reads on villain would be helpful.

Edit: you should think about the range youre assigning a bit more.

I agree that I don't think he's leading with air.. so I'm pretty much down to an over-pair.

He might have 10's.. QJ would like this flop too but is he squeezing OOP with that? or 88?

Admittedly I have a lot of work to do with assigning ranges but not much else makes sense to me.

[thelorax]

right, so run a rage consisting of say TT+ AT and AJhh+ and see what kind of equity you have on the flop.

as far as 88 being in his range...do you use a hud?
his vpip/pfr stats would be helpful in determining this.

[derekeverett]

right, so run a rage consisting of say TT+ AT and AJhh+ and see what kind of equity you have on the flop.

as far as 88 being in his range...do you use a hud?
his vpip/pfr stats would be helpful in determining this.

I do have a hud, but as mentioned I had just joined the table and had nothing on him yet.

I re-calculated with those specific hands and my equity is closer to 40% against that specific a range.

Do you think that putting him on that specific a range (I refer to the AhJh-AhKh) is giving him a bit to much credit in most cases? His betting seemed more defensive to me. Consistent with him having an over-pair.

I agree though some stats could have made such a difference here.

[Shotglass]

His betting seemed more defensive to me. Consistent with him having an over-pair.

Since you just joined the table, I'd try to avoid the soul reads about 'his betting seemed defensive' and just try to assign him a range that matches his play in this hand.

[derekeverett]

Since you just joined the table, I'd try to avoid the soul reads about 'his betting seemed defensive' and just try to assign him a range that matches his play in this hand.

Honestly that's exactly what I was doing. His betting felt like he was defending an over-pair from the draws forming on the board. Made the most sense to me.

[thelorax]

i mean for a more conservative range you could take out TT, since we have a blocker.
just mess around with stove a bit.
..try running something like AJs+ and JJ+

[PlayToWin]

Super easy fold preflop, flop, or Turn.

[EasyPoker]

As played, I would fold turn, although I'd like Stacks to explain further why he'd call.

However, as things were pre, I'd raise.

[Razvan729]

As played, I would fold turn, although I'd like Stacks to explain further why he'd call.
However, as things were pre, I'd raise.

pot is 14,99
we have to call 6,91
villain range 88,TT+, AJhh+,AT

so bet/(bet+pot)=6,91/(6,91+14,99)=6,91/21,9=31,5%
our equity vs opp range 38%

from the fact that our quity is higher then pot odds we have a +EV call.

even if we give villain a very tight range like TT,88,66,55,KK,AA we still have 32% equity and it's still a slight +EV call.

[d0zer]

Super easy fold preflop, flop, or Turn.

you want to fold preflop getting a billion to one in a 4-way with a great multi-way hand? and then fold the flop with a shitton of equity?

not sure if srs

[thelorax]

Super easy fold preflop, flop, or Turn.

can you explain your rationale here for all streets?

[Stacks]

Folding preflop would be terrible. Folding flop would be terrible. Turn is a trivial call.

We need 31.5% equity. Against a range of {88,TT+,AT) we have enough equity to call. If he is shoving turn with other better Tx hands like JT-KT, we still have equity to call. Then you attribute for the flush draws that we are ahead of, and our equity only increases.

[bikes]

Super easy fold preflop, flop, or Turn.

this is either a horrible level or you have massive fundamental leaks

just jam the flop

[PlayToWin]

can you explain your rationale here for all streets?

Last night I had been drinking, so now I wouldn't say a fold is super easy. I think I call this about 60% preflop. With the large raise, I'm sure I'm behind, but multiway it would be nice to see a flop.

On flop I would probably call (also hoping villian checks Turn so we can float), but I think a fold is better because I don't think there are any weaker flush draws in his range.

Turn - I fold here without better reads on villian. I don't like being a callin station with a ten-high flush draw. We missed the flush (which may not be good anyway) and it's not a cheap draw with a near pot-sized bet. I know we have other outs and there's no money left behind if we call, but I'm still folding.

Most of the other responses you got are from better players than me. I guess I'm weak-tight.

[eugmac]

On flop I would probably call (also hoping villian checks Turn so we can float), but I think a fold is better because I don't think there are any weaker flush draws in his range.

You do realize we're ahead of all flush draws right?

[d0zer]

I think I call this about 60% preflop

is it profitable in this exact spot only 60% of the time?

[scott_owen]

I don't like calling preflop raises that big, even multiway because you really do need to win a whole stack to make it worthwhile. I don't mean to say it was bad though, its just. A bit higher variance than I like because I feel that avoiding tilt is +ev ..this hand got you putting more than half a buyin into the pot with barely 35% equity and regardless of it being acceptable pot odds that will screw with my head.


I think the important question you needed to ask is about the flop and your plan for the hand preflop. This kind of hand is looking to bet hard on flops it hits. When you called here you sacrifice any potential fold equity, you really screw yourself by not putting pressure on any flush draws and leave yourself pretty exposed against flush draws that are ahead of you when it hits. Your hand has pretty poor equity on the flop for the turn, or on the turn for the river. But you likely have an edge for turn + river.

If you raise it to ~6.50 then your going to eliminate flush draws or get massive value from them because you have a pair. If overpair or set shoves back over the top your getting way better odds than you do on the turn and you may even get some hands like A10 maybe JJ to fold. You may also be placed on a set and scare the shit out of QQ+ meaning that if they call the flop they likely check the turn and you can take the river for free if you like.

[PlayToWin]

You do realize we're ahead of all flush draws right?

Sure. Does that mean we're winning the hand? I also realize that flush draws are a huge part of our equity, unless he's got a bigger FD.

[PlayToWin]

is it profitable in this exact spot only 60% of the time?

The way I play, I'll call here slightly more often than I'll fold.

[Stacks]

[d0zer]

The way I play, I'll call here slightly more often than I'll fold.

So what determining factor do you use to decide whether or not in this specific spot you'll call or fold? do you have a random number generator in your head?

[Stacks]

On flop I would probably call (also hoping villian checks Turn so we can float), but I think a fold is better because I don't think there are any weaker flush draws in his range.

Seriously, folding the flop is unbelievably bad. You have SOOOOOOO much equity.

Turn - I fold here without better reads on villian. I don't like being a callin station with a ten-high flush draw.

Ten High flush draw + pair + gutshot... Since you advocate folding turn, please provide a reasonable range that we do not have enough equity against to call the turn shove.

Sure. Does that mean we're winning the hand?

If he has a flush draw, it means we are winning the hands more often than he is, aka we are a favorite.

[Stacks]

So what determining factor do you use to decide whether or not in this specific spot you'll call or fold? do you have a random number generator in your head?

I remember something in Harrington of Holdem, where he would use the second hand on his watch. So, I'd obviously assume that when PTW is deciding whether to call or fold, if when he looks at the second hand on his watch he sees the hand between 1-36, he will call. And if it's between 37-60, he folds. But that's only an assumption.

[PlayToWin]

So what determining factor do you use to decide whether or not in this specific spot you'll call or fold? do you have a random number generator in your head?

The 60% call is obv a guess. I can't back it up. I just know I don't always play similar hands the same way.

[PlayToWin]

OK, I broke out PokerStove. I gave villian a tight range due to the size of the raise {QQ+, AhJh+}. We have a lot more equity than I thought. It's 50/50 on the flop.

The Turn is the big decision since it takes 70% of our stack to call. I'm not sure why Stacks calls this trivial. On the Turn we lose equity and it's 58%/42%. I know we have to put some big sooted cards in villians range, but I tend to think it should be weighted more towards big pairs. If we give him a range of QQ+, our equity is only 37%.

We don't know if villian has air in his range so given my ranges, our Turn equity is either 42% or 37%. I kinda like the fold.

[eugmac]

We don't know if villian has air in his range so given my ranges, our Turn equity is either 42% or 37%. I kinda like the fold.

NO

The reason was posted already:

pot is 14,99
we have to call 6,91
villain range 88,TT+, AJhh+,AT

so bet/(bet+pot)=6,91/(6,91+14,99)=6,91/21,9=31,5%
our equity vs opp range 38%

from the fact that our quity is higher then pot odds we have a +EV call.

even if we give villain a very tight range like TT,88,66,55,KK,AA we still have 32% equity and it's still a slight +EV call.

[Stacks]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ws-173190.html

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

[PlayToWin]

Should this: bet/(bet+pot)=6,91/(6,91+14,99)=6,91/21,9=31,5%
be this: so bet/(bet+pot)=6.91/(6.91+8.08)=6.91/14.99=46%

I'm just asking so don't go apeshit.

*I just saw Stacks reply. Going to bed now but I'll go through it tomorrow.

[eugmac]

Should this: bet/(bet+pot)=6,91/(6,91+14,99)=6,91/21,9=31,5%
be this: so bet/(bet+pot)=6.91/(6.91+8.08)=6.91/14.99=46%

I'm just asking so don't go apeshit.

*I just saw Stacks reply. Going to bed now but I'll go through it tomorrow.

6.91[amount to call] / (8.08 [current pot] + 6.91 [his all in]+6.91[amount to call])

You've made the common error of forgetting to add the "amount to call" to the denominator.

[Razvan729]

math is bet/(bet+pot)

pot is 8,08 before he bets... when villain bets 6,91 pot is 14,99 and we have to call 6,91 into 14,99 so math is 6,91/(6,91+14,99)=31,5% pot odds.

read stacks links and see... it took me a long while also until i understood all this.

another way to calculate the EV + or - is this

E*P - (1-E)*B, where E= our equity vs his range, P= pot, B= bet we have to call

so vs the tightest range possible here 55,66,88,TT, KK,AA we have 32% equity.

math: 0,32*14,99$-(1-0,32)*6,91$=4,7968$-0,68*6,91$=4,7968$-4,6988$=0,098$ a value higher then 0 so its a call.

but that is a very tight range, lets give a more common range that people raise pre like that and shove on turn. we'll have a range like TT+,AKhh,AQhh, vs this, our equity is 39,5%.

let's do math again

0,395*14,99$-(1-0,395)*6,91$=5,921$-4,18$=1,741$


with the very tight range the money we win are 0,1$ while with a most common range that people will shove the win is 1,75$, you'd like more a call in the second case, but no matter #1 or #2 range, we still make money by calling and not losing, so it's a call always profitable, even if one time money are less then the other.

thing is, even if playing this increases variance, on long run this will make you money and if you can fold this pre/flop/turn at microstakes cause here donks will stack off light and you make money even playing 6/5 with a hit/fold style, i really dont think you can pass any +EV plays in higher stakes where ppl are a lot better and your winnings will depend on every cent.

and there is no better place to learn how to play +EV for the long run then microstakes, so even here, this hand is never a fold cause you make money by caling here.

in my opinion , by calling here we gain some more, because ppl will see this, but not all will understand that our play was good,s lot will see it as a fishy call and they will start shoving lighter in us and like this we make some more money. but just the way i see it, last paragraph i aint sure is ok.

[rpm]

Super easy fold preflop, flop, or Turn.

@ the bold,
are you serious? what do you think his flop range is, and what makes you want to fold here facing this bet from that range?

edit: ok i see from a later post that you realise we are flipping at very worst vs almost any conceivable flop range.

[rpm]

just to try and add something constructive:

your preflop limp is good. you have the best position on the table, and you are entering a multiway pot with a hand that plays great multiway (especially in position, just for added emphasis), a large stack-to-pot-ratio (SPR). i would probably be folding to the squeeze, as he has sized his bet reasonably so, although his range is probably very strong, you are unlikely to have great enough implied odds to make a call profitable. though that is probably disputable and accurately determining these preflop implied-odds spots is a weakness of mine. the fact that you noted the strength of SB's range is good. and the range you put him on seems pretty accurate.

you basically cannot have asked for a better flop than this one. you never really have less than (as a guess) 45% equity against any conceievable range for your opponent. i think this is the strongest flop cbetting range i can give this guy credit for:

Board: Td 5h 8h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.444% 48.44% 00.00% 12949 0.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 51.556% 51.56% 00.00% 13781 0.00 { TT+, AhKh, AhQh }

and you are basically a coin flip against it. i prefer to shove here. the reason i prefer to shove is that when we call the flop, we miss the turn (by "miss" i mean do not make two pair/3-of-a-kind/flush) something like 28% of the time, and when this happens it basically chops our equity in half. meaning we find ourselves in a situation where we have bloated the pot to the point where there is ~1 pot sized bet left in the effective stacks, with a hand that had a lot of value, yet may not be able to continue profitably when faced with further aggression. so i prefer to shove the flop while we still have AT LEAST 48% equity. possibly even more (if he calls with stupid shit like AKo or 99). instead of putting half our stacks in with a hand we may be forced to fold to aggression on later streets.


as played, there is a pretty cut-and-dry way to determine whether or not to call on the turn. and i'm sure someone has linked you to it already. i can't be bothered doing the precise maths, but at a glance, it seems like you're getting roughly 2.2 or 2.3:1. meaning you need something like 30% equity. against TT+ you have 37%. against TT+,AhKh,AhQh you have 39%. regardless, it seems to be a +EV call. (though as i said, i personally prefer putting the money in on the flop)

for more info (and an infinitely better explanation) about the equity of "drawing hands" over different streets, consult IowaSkinsFan's articles "There's no such thing as a made hand" parts one and two.

hope that helped!

edit: so i went on and did the pot odds/equity calculation and realised calling the turn all-in is still +EV, but i stand by my preference for shoving the flop.

edit #2: here are the threads i was referring to
ISF - There's No Such Thing As a Made Hand
ISF - There's No Such Thing As a Made Hand: Part 2

[rpm]

PTW, i don't want to come off harshly because you've already taken somewhat of a beating in this thread. but your poker logic seems to be hugely misguided here.

- you advocate folding on the flop when we have damn near enough equity to shove all the money in for value.

- you advocate folding the turn when we have enough equity to make a +EV call against basically any range except something like {TT,88,97}, and he doesn't have 12 of the 16 combos in that range in his preflop or flop range anyway (namely 97). and he certainly has weaker hands than these in his range, like JJ+.

for a bit of perspective, even if we somehow knew for certain that his range was TT,88,JJ - it would be a +EV call. obviously the more overpairs we add in, the less statistically likely it is that he has a set, and the more equity we have. same can be said for AhKh, AhQh type hands.

- and you seem to be stating that you would take certain actions x% of the time in this spot - these spots are +EV 100% of the time, not just 60% or 40% or whatever %. don't rob yourself of the value by only doing something x amount of the time. determine the EV, and then play your hand accordingly. all the time.

for what it's worth, the only possible way we can really badly fuck this hand up after the flop comes down is if we fold at any stage, any % of the time.

[eugmac]

PTW, i don't want to come off harshly because you've already taken somewhat of a beating in this thread. but your poker logic seems to be hugely misguided here.

- you advocate folding on the flop when we have damn near enough equity to shove all the money in for value.

- you advocate folding the turn when we have enough equity to make a +EV call against basically any range except something like {TT,88,97}, and he doesn't have 12 of the 16 combos in that range in his preflop or flop range anyway (namely 97). and he certainly has weaker hands than these in his range, like JJ+.

for a bit of perspective, even if we somehow knew for certain that his range was TT,88,JJ - it would be a +EV call. obviously the more overpairs we add in, the less statistically likely it is that he has a set, and the more equity we have. same can be said for AhKh, AhQh type hands.

- and you seem to be stating that you would take certain actions x% of the time in this spot - these spots are +EV 100% of the time, not just 60% or 40% or whatever %. don't rob yourself of the value by only doing something x amount of the time. determine the EV, and then play your hand accordingly. all the time.

for what it's worth, the only possible way we can really badly fuck this hand up after the flop comes down is if we fold at any stage, any % of the time.

for having the patience to write all that out. I apologize for my snappish one-line replies when clearly a long, clear explanation was what PTW needed in order to be of real help.

[Carroters]

Just fold the flop guys. Well maybe shove 12% to balance, but seriously that's all.

[d0zer]

The 60% call is obv a guess. I can't back it up. I just know I don't always play similar hands the same way.

Here's what I'm getting at:

This specific spot is either +EV or it isn't. If it is, you shouldn't be folding any % of the time and if it isn't, you shouldn't be calling any % of the time.

Harrington / Sklansky style randomizations are intended for balancing against very sophisticated opponents when you start having to worry about game theory optimal play. You're not even close to that level so you're going to end up making -EV plays if you're playing the same spot differently.

[Hoopy]

Jamming flop seems more +EV than calling, as played call turn.

Just fold the flop guys. Well maybe shove 12% to balance, but seriously that's all.

trolls ITT

[eugmac]

Harrington / Sklansky style randomizations are intended for balancing against very sophisticated opponents when you start having to worry about game theory optimal play. You're not even close to that level so you're going to end up making -EV plays if you're playing the same spot differently.

Even then, vs said sophisticated opps, this flop is not the situation where you'd mix up your play by making a massively bad fold, if I understand the concept of these randomizations.

[scott_owen]

I don't wish to debate that raise/jam flop is the way to go here, however I'm curious about calculating the equity. It seems that this logic should apply to all situations of this nature but nobody here does this in posts as far as I'm aware.

I propose that if you shove, you can not use the range you place villain on to calculate equity if he calls. This is because you'll be shoving a further ~7 into the ~5.5 pot.

7+5.5=12.5.
required equity for villain to call is ~56% ..feel free to correct my math, I know I haven't account for everything and its not exact. I'm just saying in some situations your going to see overpairs and big flush draws fold. Which will dramatically reduce our equity for when we do see this to the river

[Stacks]

Villain would also need 31.5% equity to call a flop shove. He would have to call $6.86 into a pot of $14.94. So (6.86) / (6.86 + 14.94) = 6.86 / 21.8 = ~31.5%

And you would not use his betting range to determine your pot equity. You would need to assign him a calling range, then figure your hand's equity against that range. Then take into account your fold equity, to determine if this is a profitable shove or not (it is profitable obviously).

I'm just saying in some situations your going to see overpairs and big flush draws fold. Which will dramatically reduce our equity for when we do see this to the river

If this is true, then this affects our fold equity. The higher our fold equity, the less pot equity we need for a shove to be profitable. So if he is folding overpairs and big flush draws, which would be a mistake if he knows our hand as he would have the necessary pot equity to call a shove, then our fold equity increases, thus we don't need as much pot equity for it to be profitable. Plus we have made him make a mistake, which is profitable for us.

[scott_owen]

Villain would also need 31.5% equity to call a flop shove. He would have to call $6.86 into a pot of $14.94. So (6.86) / (6.86 + 14.94) = 6.86 / 21.8 = ~31.5%

i'm clearly lost on the math..

someone posted (bet)/(bet+pot)

on the flop the pot is $3.40, then villain bets $2.34. Hero would then shove to $9.30.
this would make the pot (3.4 + 2.34 + 2.34(our called part of the bet))=8.08
the bet villain has to call is 9.30-2.34=6.96..

bet / (bet+pot) = 6.91 / (6.91+8.08) = 6.91 / 14.99 = 0.46

villain needs 46% equity?

so what is it, do i not get it or did you miss calc the pot total? you seem to be adding the bet and the pot together to arrive at the value of the pot.. which would make sense if the formula didnt read "/(bet+pot)"

[scott_owen]

blaaa clearly this has been answered before, sorry.

just read the calling all ins post..

seems i need a second for this to sink into my head so i can understand why it should work like that

[Stacks]

i'm clearly lost on the math..

someone posted (bet)/(bet+pot)

on the flop the pot is $3.40, then villain bets $2.34. Hero would then shove to $9.30.
this would make the pot (3.4 + 2.34 + 2.34(our called part of the bet))=8.08
the bet villain has to call is 9.30-2.34=6.96..

bet / (bet+pot) = 6.91 / (6.91+8.08) = 6.91 / 14.99 = 0.46

villain needs 46% equity?

so what is it, do i not get it or did you miss calc the pot total?

If we are to shove the flop, the pot isn't going to be $8.08. If facing villain's $2.34 bet, we shove our remaining $9.20, then the pot will be (3.40 + 2.34 + 9.20) = 14.94. Therefore when doing the math it looks like:

(bet) / (bet + pot)
(6.86) / (6.86 + 14.94)
6.86 / 21.8
= 31.5%

[scott_owen]

yeh i see.. i made a simple calculator for the formula in excel and ran some easy to read numbers. I see why it works that way. My mind was just separating the pot and bet, like uncalled bets aren't part of the pot value and are accounted for in the formula when we add the bet and pot together.

[Muzzard]

wtf thread jam flop

but fold pre

[PlayToWin]

Watev, i don't feel like I've taken a beating yet. We've had major storms/power outages around here. It may be another 3 days till I'm back on the grid. I should have gone through that Calling an All-in thread a long time ago, just never got around to it. I'll be back.