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OK, I broke out PokerStove. I gave villian a tight range due to the size of the raise {QQ+, AhJh+}. We have a lot more equity than I thought. It's 50/50 on the flop.
The Turn is the big decision since it takes 70% of our stack to call. I'm not sure why Stacks calls this trivial. On the Turn we lose equity and it's 58%/42%. I know we have to put some big sooted cards in villians range, but I tend to think it should be weighted more towards big pairs. If we give him a range of QQ+, our equity is only 37%.
We don't know if villian has air in his range so given my ranges, our Turn equity is either 42% or 37%. I kinda like the fold.
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