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Is This Situation Profitable Or Was I Just Being Stupid?

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  1. #1
    rpm's Avatar
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    just to try and add something constructive:

    your preflop limp is good. you have the best position on the table, and you are entering a multiway pot with a hand that plays great multiway (especially in position, just for added emphasis), a large stack-to-pot-ratio (SPR). i would probably be folding to the squeeze, as he has sized his bet reasonably so, although his range is probably very strong, you are unlikely to have great enough implied odds to make a call profitable. though that is probably disputable and accurately determining these preflop implied-odds spots is a weakness of mine. the fact that you noted the strength of SB's range is good. and the range you put him on seems pretty accurate.

    you basically cannot have asked for a better flop than this one. you never really have less than (as a guess) 45% equity against any conceievable range for your opponent. i think this is the strongest flop cbetting range i can give this guy credit for:

    Board: Td 5h 8h
    Dead:
    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 48.444% 48.44% 00.00% 12949 0.00 { Th9h }
    Hand 1: 51.556% 51.56% 00.00% 13781 0.00 { TT+, AhKh, AhQh }

    and you are basically a coin flip against it. i prefer to shove here. the reason i prefer to shove is that when we call the flop, we miss the turn (by "miss" i mean do not make two pair/3-of-a-kind/flush) something like 28% of the time, and when this happens it basically chops our equity in half. meaning we find ourselves in a situation where we have bloated the pot to the point where there is ~1 pot sized bet left in the effective stacks, with a hand that had a lot of value, yet may not be able to continue profitably when faced with further aggression. so i prefer to shove the flop while we still have AT LEAST 48% equity. possibly even more (if he calls with stupid shit like AKo or 99). instead of putting half our stacks in with a hand we may be forced to fold to aggression on later streets.


    as played, there is a pretty cut-and-dry way to determine whether or not to call on the turn. and i'm sure someone has linked you to it already. i can't be bothered doing the precise maths, but at a glance, it seems like you're getting roughly 2.2 or 2.3:1. meaning you need something like 30% equity. against TT+ you have 37%. against TT+,AhKh,AhQh you have 39%. regardless, it seems to be a +EV call. (though as i said, i personally prefer putting the money in on the flop)

    for more info (and an infinitely better explanation) about the equity of "drawing hands" over different streets, consult IowaSkinsFan's articles "There's no such thing as a made hand" parts one and two.

    hope that helped!

    edit: so i went on and did the pot odds/equity calculation and realised calling the turn all-in is still +EV, but i stand by my preference for shoving the flop.

    edit #2: here are the threads i was referring to
    ISF - There's No Such Thing As a Made Hand
    ISF - There's No Such Thing As a Made Hand: Part 2
    Last edited by rpm; 04-27-2011 at 07:52 AM.

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