Fun Thread with 2nd nuts

[bikes]

I'm pretty tilted atm having absolutely nothing to do with poker so I thought I'd post this hand for you all. I think the choice is pretty clear but I thought you all should discuss it.

villian is 12/4 with a RFI OTB of 11%, he is not at all creative postflop.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
7 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($10.30)
UTG+1 ($29.59)
MP ($25)
CO ($25.35)
BTN ($47.56)
hero obv (SB) ($25)
BB ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 7 players) hero obv is SB
4 folds, BTN raises to $0.70, hero obv calls $0.60, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.65, 2 players)
hero obv checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($1.65, 2 players)
hero obv bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

River: ($4.15, 2 players)
hero obv bets $2.50, BTN goes all-in $45.61, hero obv ?

[rong]

Call and kick my dog when I see AK.

Where is the fun you promised?

[baudib]

My gut instinct seeing the action from this type of player is to fold but maybe I'm influenced by the tone of your post. I'd think he'd probably play AK/KK the same way so it's 50-50, so call?

[rong]

TT and 88 also

[baudib]

I don't give this guy credit for repping more than like 6 combos or calling turn with TT.

[rong]

You gotta give him 9 combos and leave 88 in there surely.

[The Norg]

I'm paying off to AK.

He must be opening wider A's than AK here, and since we're unlikely to flat AK oop for a standard button raise, I don't see how his range here does not include KK, AQ, AJ probably and of course AT.

Lol if he turns up with TT.

[bikes]

will post another hand cause am curious on what people think. pretty sure i played this hand optimally as well. will post what i did in both these hands eventually after you guys discuss them for a bit.

I should mention I run far looser and and 3b far more than most people at these stakes. However it is undecided if either of these villains pay attention, leaning towards the unlikely.

villian is 10/8 and also lacking creative post flop. bet or check and why? and if you decide to bet how much and why?


$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($56.66)
hero obv (UTG+1) ($50.50)
MP1 ($65.38)
MP2 ($73.68)
MP3 ($62.49)
CO ($50.50)
BTN ($66.56)
SB ($80.40)
BB ($50)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 9 players) hero obv is UTG+1
1 fold, hero obv raises to $1.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.75, 4 players)
hero obv bets $4.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.75, 2 players)
hero obv bets $9.50, BTN calls $9.50

River: ($34.75, 2 players)
hero obv?

[rong]

I wanna c/c. Is AQ calling a 3rd street? Missed draws might bet if checked to.

[rong]

Will a daven troll post be providing the fun?

[baudib]

Bet/fold $14 to get value from AQ, if I check it's to c/f because this guy has no draws to bluff and won't value-bet worse.

[baudib]

You gotta give him 9 combos and leave 88 in there surely.

I actually don't think he overbet shoves 88, he flopped the joint and feels like he has the nutty nuts.

[rong]

How are there no draws? Dude called a 3 way from the button. Has to be the widest his range will ever be and a very wet flop.

[The Norg]

Are we saying he only bets for value on the river here? If so c/f since your hand / range is pretty face up isn't it? If he bets he has 2 pair+ imo, and he shouldn't ever fold that to you here even if you jam.

More difficult if we think he could bluff the busted fd mind you.

[baudib]

We have the Ah so that drastically cuts down on his draws; even OTB I don't think a 10/8 calls with KJs/QJs type stuff very often cuz ZOMG domination; even if he does he probably doesn't bluff them.

[The Norg]

We have the Ah so that drastically cuts down on his draws; even OTB I don't think a 10/8 calls with KJs/QJs type stuff very often cuz ZOMG domination; even if he does he probably doesn't bluff them.

What is anyone doing playing at these stakes (other than very badly) if they are not prepared to call with anything that looks like it might make a hand sometimes OTB with this much dead money and position?

Maybe I'm being simplistic? Or just not very good

[baudib]

What is anyone doing playing at these stakes (other than very badly) if they are not prepared to call with anything that looks like it might make a hand sometimes OTB with this much dead money and position?

Maybe I'm being simplistic? Or just not very good

I assume 10/8s are playing badly with very depolarized ranges. I don't play online anymore but this type of player is reasonably common in live games. I lean toward betting because this guy is definitely raising sets by the turn and I don't think he ever has 86 or something because 10/8s generally are just playing off a hand-chart and aren't adjusting to position/pot odds, etc.

I think this guy's range is so unbalanced I'd just c/f AhJx on the turn, maybe AQ as well.

[rpm]

i call it off because i expect him to check back KK on the flop if he checks back AK and vice versa (equal # of combos). however it would be a bigger mistake to check AK than KK, so if we discount KK by one combination then we'll have 2:3 or 40% equity and it's probably close to a fold. cbf on the maths because my brains fried

edit: this is in response to H1, hadn't read any more of the thread at time of posting.

[baudib]

I would totally bet AK and KK on the flop most of the time but I don't get why it's a bigger mistake to check KK.

[rpm]

hand 2 is a spot where i am confident i leak a ton of money. if i were playing the hand i'd probably attempt some sick b/f like $16 because his range is probably capped at AT(due to not raising flop or turn, which i expect him to do with sets/straights) and we get some crying calls from AJ/AQ, which is 16 combos. also, the uncreative read makes me comfortable that he never jams worse. so i'm comfortably folding to his jams when i have 0% equity

[rpm]

I would totally bet AK and KK on the flop most of the time but I don't get why it's a bigger mistake to check KK.

perhaps it's not. the deck just seems more crippled when we have AK on AAK than KK.

[baudib]

i obv meant AK not KK in that post.

I'd rather bet KK because obv there are more Ax combos available than when we have AK.

[kickass]

AK can't be drawn out on KK can that makes it more of a mistake to chk back kk. I want to fold hand 1 I feel that whist his range has both KK and AK it's weighted in favour of AK. If he could ever have 88 this is obv a lol call. And I prolly level myself into making it in game. Hand 2 I wanna bet fold small. Maybe chk fold if he folds AQ

[kickass]

Rereading hand 1 I kinda feel he only ever has tens. Maybe I'm a retard. Hand 2 bet fold so small he can't fold AQ, he's never fucking with you so be exploitable for maximum profits. 11 dollar something like that.

[baudib]

AK can't be drawn out on KK can that makes it more of a mistake to chk back kk. I want to fold hand 1 I feel that whist his range has both KK and AK it's weighted in favour of AK. If he could ever have 88 this is obv a lol call. And I prolly level myself into making it in game. Hand 2 I wanna bet fold small. Maybe chk fold if he folds AQ

I'm not thinking about getting drawn out on when I have KK on AAK, I want to maximize value. KK on AAK is 84% vs. Ax, that's like having AA preflop.

If I check back AK on AAK, it's because I don't think villain calls with Kx/gutters and isn't the type to float/spew on scary boards or knows me well enough to think I could bet the nuts there.

[gingerwizard]

Feel like I'm being levelled by the first one. "He can't be creative post flop" and the fact you posted it makes me wonder if you think the standard "fist pump call" isn't right.

His line might be nutty (and if it was, surely AK, and KK play the same, equal combos make that 50:50 and #lolpotodds), but isn't overbet shoving the river with the absolute nuts slightly creative post flop? If not creative, it's certainly a very good EV maximising play against a normal player's calling range. I'm reluctant to rule out TT, AT, A8s). Call the first.

Second hand b/f like 14. The f because he's got you beat if he raises and the bet because there are only 6 realistic sets he can have on the river compared to 8 AQs that might call a bet. With the Ah gone, he can't have many draws and won't bluff them anyway if he's not creative.

This becomes a check fold if there is a reasonable probability of him folding AQ to a river bet assuming he'd check it behind you

[OngBonga]

Hand 1 fold pre innit, villain raises 4% (I assume our sample is sufficient). We have a pretty ace, sure, but we're dominated the vast majority of the time imo. As played, I guess fold, villain has AK or KK imo, we're 50-50 but rake is gonna bite and villain probably has AK more often because his KK is losing to AA AK AT and A8 so if he has KK he's effectively turning his fucking boat into a bluff, there's so many more Ax boat combos that he loses to, so shoving seems crazy into a pot of this size with KK, especially against one of the few people here who can fold 88 to this river shove. Note - I think we should fold this river, but I doubt very much I do this, because I suck at folding boats. Also, why are we sat at a table with a nit to our right? Time to move on.

Hand 2 c/f river, we're beat, not close. He might have KQhh or something like that, but we have reads that villain isn't creative so I'm not expecting him to try and bluff us very often. When he bets, he usually has us beat.

[baudib]

Hand 2 c/f river, we're beat, not close. He might have KQhh or something like that, but we have reads that villain isn't creative so I'm not expecting him to try and bluff us very often. When he bets, he usually has us beat.

Oh, come on. Even nits call with AQ OTB and that's 8 combos. More importantly this type of player rarely slowplays sets with a flush draw out there. I agree when he raises river we are destroyed but he's not raising very often.

[rong]

GW - play werewolf? I feel you could be the new Keith.

[NoizeGek]

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[rong]

Baudib, you clearly have enough time on your hands to play werewolf. Just imagine ganging up on ong and lynching him for no reason while he jabbers away about why he's so important. It's truly satisfying.

[rong]

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I may be doing this in 3 months with Thai homeware products. Please don't ban me.

[OngBonga]

Baudib, you clearly have enough time on your hands to play werewolf. Just imagine ganging up on ong and lynching him for no reason while he jabbers away about why he's so important. It's truly satisfying.

I hope I'm the vig. Please let me be the vig.

[gingerwizard]

GW - play werewolf? I feel you could be the new Keith.

lol I've been around longer than keith

[gingerwizard]

As played, I guess fold, villain has AK or KK imo, we're 50-50 but rake is gonna bite and villain probably has AK more often because his KK is losing to AA AK AT and A8 so if he has KK he's effectively turning his fucking boat into a bluff, there's so many more Ax boat combos that he loses to, so shoving seems crazy into a pot of this size with KK, especially against one of the few people here who can fold 88 to this river shove.

Point 1. $9.15+$20.65 in the pot $20.65 to call. If rake means 50:50 pot odds are not enough to call I'm never playing online again.

Point 2. How does villain know hero can fold 88 to a river shove?

Point 3. For this to be turning KK into a bluff, we must actually think our opponents fold trip A's, TT, 88 like all the time and might lay down AT, A8. If we think they call some of those hands it's a vb.

Take it from the flop and imagine you have KK. You now want the money in but don't want to chase hero away. When hero bets the river, are you really thinking about AK and AT or do you still go with the plan of hoping his river bet means he has an A and shove?

[kickass]

Hand 1 fold pre innit, villain raises 4% (I assume our sample is sufficient).

villain opens 11% on the button. Im asuming bikes thinks he can outplay this fool enough to make his call profitable. villains range is prolly AT+ 22+ KQ which is actually 12% but prolly close enough.

[OngBonga]

Thing is ging, if I'm villain and have KK, I'm not gonna shove this river because I narrow hero's calling range to AK AT and 88 (I don't think hero has A8 pre or TT on turn), and I only beat one of those hands. Which means I'm weighting villain's shoving range here more towards AK than KK. Unless he's an idiot who isn't thinking about what can call his shove, which he might be.

It's close. I thought rake made it a fold but it's closer than I thought, but I still err towards folding (in theory) because I don't think KK makes this play as often as AK, but I could be wrong obv. In practise I ldo call because I can't make this lay down..

[rong]

lol I've been around longer than keith

Keith is the late king of ridiculously long multi quote posts. I figured you may take his crown as he seems to have stopped playing.

[OngBonga]

villain opens 11% on the button. Im asuming bikes thinks he can outplay this fool enough to make his call profitable. villains range is prolly AT+ 22+ KQ which is actually 12% but prolly close enough.

Yeah ok fine, folding is bad if he's opening 11%, my bad.

[rong]

I hope I'm the vig. Please let me be the vig.

See? He's biting already.

[gingerwizard]

Thing is ging, if I'm villain and have KK, I'm not gonna shove this river because I narrow hero's calling range to AK AT and 88 (I don't think hero has A8 pre or TT on turn), and I only beat one of those hands. Which means I'm weighting villain's shoving range here more towards AK than KK. Unless he's an idiot who isn't thinking about what can call his shove, which he might be.

OK. So a 12/4 at 25NL actually worries about narrowing opponents calling ranges.

How about ranking these in the order of probability that they are actually true.

a.) Villain is a thinking player who not only thinks about your range but your perception of his range.
b.) Villain is a player who thinks about his range.
c.) Villain read a book once that talked about ranges in poker and didn't get it.
d.) Villain puts you on a hand (usually AK, but not here because that beats him).
e.) Villain has even thought about what hand you have.
f.) Villain can spell range but not pronounce it.
g.) Villain can't spell range.
h.) Villain is working from a starting hand chart.
i.) Villain is a bot programmed to shove the river with any set/boat IP.

[bikes]

h1

kk since many people are interested in how i play hands for some reason i thought i'd break down exactly what goes through my head street by street. I do mean exactly.


Preflop.
kk so here we are, nitty mcnitterton raises my bb otb and i has ATss. call. 3bing is pretty dumb against someone opening so tight, my hand plays very well postflop as i can flop the nuts two ways both of which ways have cooler potential against his range and I play well enough and he plays poorly enough to avoid reverse domination and getting owned from it.

Flop.
Ok so we flop trips. Sweet. check. he checks behind. Ok.

So his range for checking flop imo is
QQ-55, KQ,

turn.
okay here we go, time to lead, umm sizing, think think think half pot should get a call from like QQ, and JJ, and KQ and he folds out all else so I shall bet half pawts. (at this point if he was better more thought would be required he's not)

river.
huzzah. fullest of houses. at this point a lot of people would suddenly bet bigger for some reason, because they have a full house, they're wrong. His turn calling range has not improved on this river card. I bet half pot plz call with KQ QQ sir.

*shove occurs instantly*

umm, what the fuck? breathe in, breathe out. so he's not bluffing. that is for sure. lemme think about this for a few seconds. Check turn raise stats, no sample, check river raise stats, no sample. Sigh. So he has a full house of some kind. I'ma get rid of 88 because I think most bad players would raise OTT and certainly not shove now. TT seems so unlikely because theres 1 TT. So while considered mostly tossed. He does not have A8.

Which leaves, sigh, AK and KK. If I was an awful nit at poker how would I play these hands? AK seems more likely to check the flop due to he has the board crushed, in your mind you probably stack an A everytime so you think it's cool to let me catch a '2outer' KK, possible but seems unlikely because someone as bad as you would probably bet the flop because you dont want to be over fullhoused. So let's remove say a few combos of KK. You also snap jammed which slightly weighs your range towards the complete nuts because none of you people pay any attention to your timing tells. Folding seems correct when I factor in things like rake so I'ma do that. Sigh. Fold.

[bikes]

Hand 2.

This hand far more simpler, but far more interesting as well. So we get to the river. Checking to check and fold seems pretty meh. Checking to C/RAI seems dumb as well because no one can fold a set @ these limits so meh @ that as well.

BETS. What to bet? Hmm. Hands that will call a bet, 77,55, mebbe AQ mebbe AK. He can't shove with 77 and 55 because my range is protected and balanced, not that he knows what this means nor does it apply very much here so can toss that idea out the window and mebbe he is dumb enough to shove over with 77,55 so I guess I can toss b/calling out the window. B/F it is!

Sizing! Okay, so 77,55 are always calling and I'm always beat sad times. So that leaves AQ and AK, I either need to bet big enough to block a chop or small enough to get AQ to call. Gotta pick one or the other. Since I don't have great reads I think I'ma bet small. If I was in his spot and if I was him, how much would I call with AQ, not a whole lot. bad players tend to give triples a fair bit of credit, and rightfully so I bet into 3 other people from UTG. So I think ~$9 is roughly correct as for these odds he cannot fold AQ so bet please call sir.

He folds.

In anticipation of people asking what I mean when my range is protected and balanced I mean this.

After I take this line I get to the river with a range of a few hands. These hands being AK, AA, KQhh, JThh, and QJhh. At this point I would give up with KQ and QJ because they block some of the hands I want to fold out if I were to bluff. So betting the river I have JThh, AK and AA. JThh blocks no hands that I want to fold and AK and AA are pretty obv vbs. Now before you say OMG BB what if he bluff shoves! Well if I thought he was capable of doing that I'd start b/cing AK. As well as I have the nuts of top set in my range, he does not, which is a strong determent against bluff shoving when I have far more nut combos in my range.

Balance is not having random bluffs in your range, balance is taking the bottom part of your range and playing it like the top of your range. So betting JThh in this spot as a bluff balances my range so it isn't always the nuts in this river spot makes it so he can't fold everything that isn't 77 55. Which is pretty important.

[kickass]

thanks for this bikes actual learning stuffs

[Micro2Macro]

hey guys, if you ever make a snap call on the river when your opponent raises you're fucking retarded.

Fucking. Retarded.

[Huey_Freeman]

hey guys, if you ever make a snap call on the river when your opponent raises you're fucking retarded.

Fucking. Retarded.

Except for when villain's retarded and you have the stone cold nuts.

[rong]

Nice M2M, nice.

[rong]

Good posts bikes. Interesting to hear your thought process.

[baudib]

Are you saying if we're button we can't shove 77/55 on the river? If you're betting AA, AK and JThh then you are only beating a set 3/16 times...

[bikes]

against people who suck shove

against people who are good? without history? prolly not
against people who are nitty? prolly not.

if AK never calls you still are only winning the same amount you would if you just called 13/16 times. when you shove you lose your renaming stack 3/3 times when you get called.

[baudib]

against people who suck shove

against people who are good? without history? prolly not
against people who are nitty? prolly not.

if AK never calls you still are only winning the same amount you would if you just called 13/16 times. when you shove you lose your renaming stack 3/3 times when you get called.

so we should bluff shove the river against you a ton (until you adjust obviously)

[bikes]

pretty much yeah

[baudib]

yeah, I could see how this would be the most profitably exploitable style to play at FR at these stakes as almost no one is going to bluff shove on you.

[rong]

So anyway, we were talking about werewolf.


This is so amazing you gotta check it out, even bikes likes it and you wanna be like him so if you play you kinda are

[bikes]

i clicked the link and expected to see some kind of pop music or skrillex or my drunk kitchen. alas it was none of the above.

[rong]

Yeah, link should come with a caveat that it may well disappoint.

[The Norg]

Yeah, link should come with a caveat that it may well disappoint.

Please don't post disappointing links. It's, well, disappointing.

Thanks Bikes for the run through of the hands. Very interesting, though I shall have to read it a few times to get my thought process up to speed. NH.

[rong]

Please don't post disappointing links. It's, well, disappointing.

Please play fucking werewolf. You'll be a perfect day 1 lynch.