Spoony Exercise 3: Thinking About Your Own Range (Part 3)

You should complete Exercise 1 and Exercise 2 before you do this exercise.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Assume 100bb starting stacks. The BU is a nitty TAGG who does not 3-bet very much pre-flop and does not seem to call raises with a wide range of hands. He plays fit-or-fold post-flop for the most part. Assume something like 11/9 in FR or 17/14 in 6-max. The SB is a loose-ish TAGG (think something like 18/15 in FR or 27/24 in 6-max) who 3-bets pre-flop 6% and is capable of 3-bluffing OOP. He also leads a lot of flops, c-bets 85%, and c-bets the turn 60%, being very aggressive. The BB is a complete unknown.

It folds to our Hero pre-flop in the CO who raises to 3 times the big blind. The BU calls, and the blinds fold. The flop pot is 7.5 big blinds, and the flop comes T 6 5 . Hero ...

Exercise 1 was sort of a warm-up to get you used to the idea of thinking about your own range and how it progresses over time. Exercise 2 was to get you used to thinking about how you're playing your entire range on one street. Both of these exercises are leading up to this exercise where we are going to think about the implications of our flop continuation betting range. Answer the following questions about your flop c-betting range, breaking down your range and proving the answers with some 6th grade math:

1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ?
2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?
3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?

22+, At, A6, A5, Kt : C-bet this flop to build pot
Ax, KJ, QJ: C-bet this flop probably 60% - 70% of the time

Ok, that was my answer from part #1, #2 above.

Let's see... now on to part# 3.
1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ? Since I know he has KQ (your parameters to the question) I am only vulnerable if I hold QJ in my range so far. Even that hand has outs, but is currently beaten. Thus, if I KNOW he has KQ, no, I'm not very vulnerable. I don't know that this is what you were asking for though, as there isn't a lot of math present here. My impression is you want to know how many hands out of my range are already beat, vs. my odds of improving to be able to catch the lead in the hand...

2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn? Let's see, since I know villian has KQ and is c-betting with a non-made hand at this point, the same holds true for both question 1 and 2. No, not vulnerable unless I hold QJ.

3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play? Well, the obvious answer is my c-betting range is trying to build value in pots where I'm currently ahead and also entice villian into continuing in the hand with a poor holding. Also, my c-bet if I'm holding air is to represent strength and force out a better hand... all standard C-bet answers which I don't think is what you are looking for here.

So I'm going to go back, re-read the questions again, see if I can figure out what math part we're talking about and how to apply it, and then hopefully, work hours permitting (lunch is over) figure it out... or figure it out tonight when I get home... either way, I'll check back in as soon as possible.

Since people seem a little scared of this one, I'll give an example range and answer these questions.

(A note for those who don't know, a pot-sized raise is when you raise to what the pot would be if you called the bet you're facing. So for Villain the pot is 12.5bb when he's facing a bet of 5bb, if he called the pot would be 17.5bb, so that's the amount he raises to for a pot-sized raise. We'll use this in a moment.)

Suppose my answer to Exercise 2 was that I open raise {broadways, 22+, A2s+, T9s-65s, K9s-J9s}. Then on this flop of T 6 5 I'll continuation bet 5bb with all of my broadways, TT+, 66-55, T9s, 98s, 87s, 65s, and J9s. That leaves me checking with 44-22, 99-77, 76s, K9s, Q9s.

1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ?

If I bet 5bb into 7.5bb, then a pot-sized raise for Villain is a raise to 17.5bb. He's betting 17.5bb when the pot is 12.5bb, so he would need us to fold about 58% for his bluff to be +EV, not counting his equity when we call. So let's see how often we're folding to a raise.

Villain holds KQ on a board of T65r, and our c-betting range is {broadways, TT+, 66-55, T9s, 98s, 87s, 65s, J9s}. Here I'm going to quickly list all of the hands and how many combos there are of each, and then we'll decide what we would fold to a raise:

AK(12), AQ(12), AJ(16), AT(12), KQ(9), KJ(12), KT(9), QJ(12), QT(9),
JT(12), AA(6), KK(3), QQ(3), JJ(6), TT(3), 66(3), 55(3), T9s(3), 98s(4), 87s(4), 65s(2), J9s(4)

Which is 159 if I counted it right and didn't miss anything. So what hands would we continue with against this opponent's range? Let's pretend it's as loose as {TT+, 66-55, AT, 65s, 87s} and that we never fold TPTK or better (even though in reality we often would against someone this tight). That's 45 combos, and would mean we're continuing with 28% of hands, and folding 72% of hands. So clearly we're vulnerable to this flop raise.

2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?

Instead of giving you a worked out answer, I'll describe what you'd need to show to decide this. First you need to show how often you would need to check/fold the turn for it to be +EV for Villain to float. Villain would be investing 5bb on the flop and about 12bb on the turn (2/3 turn pot of 17.5 is about 12) for a total of 17bb. He would be investing this money to win the 7.5bb in the pot plus the 5bb we bet on the flop for a total of 12.5bb. So he would need us to check/fold the turn more than 17/(17+12.5) = 58%. Now you just break down the range you bet on the turn and decide if you're check/folding it more than 58% on average to decide how vulnerable you are to a float.

3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?

Most of you should find in 1 & 2 that you're vulnerable to having your c-bets raised and/or being floated by this opponent in this spot. Your play is exploitable, but that is a direct result of something you're trying to exploit in what you think of your opponent's strategy here. What is that?

Note: By definition, when you're playing an exploitive strategy, you're vulnerable to being exploited. You're risking being exploited banking on the fact that you don't think the BU will exploit your play while trying to exploit him.

Spoon, aside from the exercise, I hate to contradict you but:

- if we bet 5 into a 7.5 pot, the pot becomes 12.5
- if villain called, the pot would be 17.5. That is the amount he needs to raise on top of his call to make a pot sized raise
- so a pot sized raise would be a raise to (17.5 + 5) = 22.5, not to 17.5.

See here: http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer...g-the-pot-size
or here: http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/omaha.php

And when you make a pot sized raise, you always lay 33.3% pot odds (2 to 1).

Originally Posted by daviddem

Spoon, aside from the exercise, I hate to contradict you but:

- if we bet 5 into a 7.5 pot, the pot becomes 12.5
- if villain called, the pot would be 17.5. That is the amount he needs to raise on top of his call to make a pot sized raise
- so a pot sized raise would be a raise to (17.5 + 5) = 22.5, not to 17.5.

See here: http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer...g-the-pot-size
or here: http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/omaha.php

And when you make a pot sized raise, you always lay 33.3% pot odds (2 to 1).

Yeah I was in a hurry and screwed that up (missed adding the call). A raise to 17.5 is still fine for this exercise, though. Thanks for catching that.

Opening:{22+, A2s+, A8o+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, 34s+, 89o+, all broadways}

Betting: 9T-AT, 55, 66, TT+, 34s-78s, air hands.

Checking: Midpair type hands, 5x, 6x, 77-99, 22-44

1.) Are you vulnerable to a pot size raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if villain has KQ?

Number of combos I'm c-betting: AK (12), AQ (12), AJ (16), AT (12), A9 (16), A8 (16), A7 (4), A4 (4), A3(4), A2 (4), KQ (9), KJ (12) KT (9), K9s (4) QJ (12), QT (9), Q9s (4), Q8s (4), TJ (12), J9s (4), J8s (4), 9T (12), 89 (16), 55 (3), 66 (3), TT (3), JJ (6), QQ (3), KK (3), AA (6), 34s (4), 56s (4), 78 (4)

Which is a total of: 250 combos

I continue with: AT (12), 34s-78s (12), TT+ (21), 55 (3), 66 (3)

Total of: 51

I am continuing to a raise 51/250 = 20%
Folding to a raise = 80%

Answer for 1.) Yes, I am extremely exploitable to a raise from this villain on the flop.

2.) Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?

Villain needs me to c/f 41% of my flop c-betting range on the turn in order for a float to be profitable with KQ.

Board is T 6 5 J

Of my flop c-betting range, I am c/f this range on the turn:

AK (11), AQ (11), A9 (15), A8 (15), A7s (3), A4s (3), A3s (3), A2s (3), K9s (3), Q8s (3), J9s (4), J8s (4)

For a total of: 78

Check-folding turn: 78/250= 31%

Answer for 2.) No, I am not vulnerable to a float if villain holds KQ.

3.) The villain in these examples is said to be fairly nitty PF, not 3-betting enough to our opens, and extremely fit or fold post flop. Basically he's only playing his hand, never thinking about our range except to think that he's beat if he doesn't hit. We are exploiting his nitty tendencies by raising a wider range PF, and c-betting almost our entire range on certain flops since he will be folding a large portion of his range to our continued aggression. When he calls our flop c-bet though, we need to slow down and continue in the hand with hands that have a decent amount of equity.

[7:10pm] <spoonitnow> I was thinking more of the turn in general instead of that specific one
[7:10pm] <dranger> oic
[7:11pm] <spoonitnow> Though that's a bit harder to quantify
[7:11pm] <dranger> ya
[7:11pm] <spoonitnow> You could pick a few different turns if you wanted

I'll be doing this tomorrow.

1) With a pot sized raise, villain needs us to fold 64.3% of the time to make a profit (not counting his equity with KQ if we continue)

My cbet range:
Check 77-99,AKs,QTs,JTs,T9s,T8s,78s,AKo,QTo,JTo
Bet TT+,66-22,AQs-A6s,K7s+,QJs,Q9s-Q8s,J9s,97s+,86s,76s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QJo

Board: Ts6c5d
Villain has KQ

Combos:
TT(3),JJ(6),KK(3),QQ(3),55-66(6),22-44(18),A6s(3),A9s-a7s(12),ATs(3),AQs(3),AJs(4),K7s-K9s(9),KTs(2),KQs(3),KJs(3),QJs(3),Q9s-Q8s(6),J9s(4),97s+(8),86s(3),76s(3),AQo(9),AJo(12) ,ATo(9),KTo(7),KQo(6),KJo(9),QJo(9)

Total combos = 169

Fold to a pot sized raise:
Now comes the tough question of whether we fold overpairs and top pair top kicker facing his pot-sized raise. Let's see. In part 1, I had villain raising the flop with TPTK or better: AT,TT,55,66 (overpairs are not in his range as I assumed he would have reraised these preflop). With top pair, against this range, I have 24% equity or less (depending on the kicker). The pot odds are 33%, so I can't continue. With overpairs, I have 41% or better, so I would continue with these. So I fold everything except overpairs and sets. Overpairs and sets are 21 combos out of 169, so I would fold 87.8% of my cbet range to his pot sized raise.

87.8% >> 64.3%, so indeed, I am vulnerable to him playing back at me.

2) If he calls the flop, from exercise 1, I have him on JTs,T9s,98s,87s,JTo,T9o, and subtracting my turn betting range (TT+,66-55,AJs-ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs,J9s,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo) from my flop cbetting range, I would check with:
22-44(18),A6s(3),A9s-a7s(12),AQs(3),K7s-K9s(9),KQs(3),Q9s-Q8s(6),97s+(8),86s(3),76s(3),AQo(9),KQo(6)

That is 83 combos, or 49.1% of my flop cbetting range.

He makes a 2/3rd pot bet, laying 28.6% pot odds, and I will assume he does that with his entire range facing the weak turn check. I would call this based on implied odds with:
As9s(1),As8s(1),As7s(1),As6s(1),AsQs(1),Ks9s(1),Ks 8s(1),Ks7s(1),KQs(3),Qs9s(1),Qs8s(1),9s7s(1),8s6s( 1),7s6s(1),KQo(6)

That is 22 combos, but I will discount to 20 combos for the times he has the Ks or Qs.

So I fold to his turn bet with 63 out of 83 combos or 75.9% of my checking range.

So I check/fold the turn 0.491*0.759 = 37.3% of the time after cbetting the flop.

Since 37.3% << 58%, his float is not immediately profitable, but let's not forget that he still has showdown equity in the hand with his KQ. Also, in this case, the float is not immediately profitable because we got a turn card that is favoring our range. Many times, this will not be the case. So I would suspect that the float is still a good play most of the time.

3) I am vulnerable because I defined my cbet range against a guy who I think plays fit or fold but in fact he has realized what I am doing and he's playing back at me by raising with overcards. Basically, I am overestimating my fold equity. How do I adjust to him playing back? Well if he is the same nit who is only playing back with hands that have some decent equity, like his KQ, then to defend against a flop raise, I should cbet much less of my air (check the flop with the worse part of my air). To defend against a float, I can also cbet less of my air, but another thing I can do is second barrel more.

If the nit has become a maniac who systematically raises or floats my cbets, then I will start re-including my fair hands like second pairs into my cbetting range, and dumping the air from it. Then I can call or shove over his raises or second barrel his floats with hands that have decent equity.

Guys this magic "58%" number is completely bogus. The number depends not just on how often we check/fold the turn, but how often we bet turn again and how often we check/call. So if we always either check/fold or check/call turn then spoon has it right, since we are committing 17.5 to win 12.5. However when we bet again on the turn and villain folds his float has only cost him 5.

So let's say we do check/fold turn 58% of the time but we fire a second barrel with the rest of our range. Now villain is winning 12.5bb every time we check/fold and only losing 5bb every time we fire again, for a total profit of 0.58*12.5-0.42*5=5.15bb. So massively exploitable.

For villain's float to be neutral EV, we need %c/f*12.5 - %bet*5 - %c/c*17.5 to be equal to 0.

Applying this to daviddem's range since he has helpfully split it up into bet, c/c and c/f, we get villain's float EV to be: (63/169)*12.5 - (86/169)*5 - (20/169)*17.5 =+0.044bb. So even with daviddem only check/folding 37% of the time he his still exploitable to a float, albeit only just.

Then there are other factors, such as villain barrelling river against your c/c range to reduce your equity further, +showdown value of KQ etc, but I appreciate that you've left these out for the sake of simplicity.

Originally Posted by knaplek

Guys this magic "58%" number is completely bogus. The number depends not just on how often we check/fold the turn, but how often we bet turn again and how often we check/call. So if we always either check/fold or check/call turn then spoon has it right, since we are committing 17.5 to win 12.5. However when we bet again on the turn and villain folds his float has only cost him 5.

So let's say we do check/fold turn 58% of the time but we fire a second barrel with the rest of our range. Now villain is winning 12.5bb every time we check/fold and only losing 5bb every time we fire again, for a total profit of 0.58*12.5-0.42*5=5.15bb. So massively exploitable.

For villain's float to be neutral EV, we need %c/f*12.5 - %bet*5 - %c/c*17.5 to be equal to 0.

Applying this to daviddem's range since he has helpfully split it up into bet, c/c and c/f, we get villain's float EV to be: (63/169)*12.5 - (86/169)*5 - (20/169)*17.5 =+0.044bb. So even with daviddem only check/folding 37% of the time he his still exploitable to a float, albeit only just.

Then there are other factors, such as villain barrelling river against your c/c range to reduce your equity further, +showdown value of KQ etc, but I appreciate that you've left these out for the sake of simplicity.

Thanks for picking this up. Besides, the actual situation is much more complicated than that, because the hand will play out totally differently depending on what the turn card is. Even if we consider this turn card only, he will not always fold when we bet the turn, and his EV is not zero when we check/call, which is all in favor of saying that the float is a +EV play.

Originally Posted by knaplek

Guys this magic "58%" number is completely bogus. The number depends not just on how often we check/fold the turn, but how often we bet turn again and how often we check/call. So if we always either check/fold or check/call turn then spoon has it right, since we are committing 17.5 to win 12.5. However when we bet again on the turn and villain folds his float has only cost him 5.

So let's say we do check/fold turn 58% of the time but we fire a second barrel with the rest of our range. Now villain is winning 12.5bb every time we check/fold and only losing 5bb every time we fire again, for a total profit of 0.58*12.5-0.42*5=5.15bb. So massively exploitable.

For villain's float to be neutral EV, we need %c/f*12.5 - %bet*5 - %c/c*17.5 to be equal to 0.

Applying this to daviddem's range since he has helpfully split it up into bet, c/c and c/f, we get villain's float EV to be: (63/169)*12.5 - (86/169)*5 - (20/169)*17.5 =+0.044bb. So even with daviddem only check/folding 37% of the time he his still exploitable to a float, albeit only just.

Then there are other factors, such as villain barrelling river against your c/c range to reduce your equity further, +showdown value of KQ etc, but I appreciate that you've left these out for the sake of simplicity.

You're right about most of this. I was saving a more intensive float analysis for a later exercise so that after you guys have worked through every exercise it will be more clear once you get built up to more complicated analysis. Looking at our check/fold percentage on the turn will give a decent idea of what I'm hoping people get out of this exercise, so you're welcome to post your own answers to each exercise and follow along until we get around to analyzing the float in more detail.

The board was down last night, so this never got posted... here it is today, gotta run... let me know thoughts and where I'm sorely lacking...

22+, At, A6, A5, Kt : C-bet this flop to build pot
Ax, KJ, QJ: C-bet this flop probably 60% - 70% of the time

Ok, that was my answer from part #1, #2 above.

Let's see... now on to part# 3.
1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ? Since I know he has KQ (your parameters to the question) I am only vulnerable if I hold QJ in my range so far. Even that hand has outs, but is currently beaten. Thus, if I KNOW he has KQ, no, I'm not very vulnerable. I don't know that this is what you were asking for though, as there isn't a lot of math present here. My impression is you want to know how many hands out of my range are already beat, vs. my odds of improving to be able to catch the lead in the hand...

2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn? Let's see, since I know villian has KQ and is c-betting with a non-made hand at this point, the same holds true for both question 1 and 2. No, not vulnerable unless I hold QJ.

3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play? Well, the obvious answer is my c-betting range is trying to build value in pots where I'm currently ahead and also entice villian into continuing in the hand with a poor holding. Also, my c-bet if I'm holding air is to represent strength and force out a better hand... all standard C-bet answers which I don't think is what you are looking for here.

So I'm going to go back, re-read the questions again, see if I can figure out what math part we're talking about and how to apply it, and then hopefully, work hours permitting (lunch is over) figure it out... or figure it out tonight when I get home... either way, I'll check back in as soon as possible.[/quote]

Ok, I'm back... and with a little encouragement from Spoon, I'm going to try to figure this out in a logical fashion now.

From the first exercise I am c-betting nearly my entire range, for the sake of this exercise, let's say I'd c-bet everything but 22, 33, 44, A2 - A4. Thus in my original range of 22+, AXs, ATo+, KJ+, QJ, I have a total of 297 Hands, a pretty wide range here. Thus, my c-bet range consist of 66 Hands. This leaves me with 231 Hand combinations I'd continue with post flop, our of 297, which is 77% of my pre-flop range, which is about right for my original estimate of 80%.

Now back to the questions:
1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2? (I got focused on knowing the cards, and we assume he is fit/fold, so he has decent holdings). (Also, I read Spoons example reply to me, and I'm doing this not knowing what he holds). Now, we put in 5 into 7.5 bb, making it 12.5 bb. He has to call 5 bb then raise making it 22.5 as the correction point out. This is where I get lost in the math. It seems to me that a pot sized bet, would be 12.5 in the pot, 5 to call, making pot 17.5 and if he raises pot-size, it would be 35 in the pot. I'm fuzzy on that one, going to have to research it more.

Ok, using spoons numbers, pot is 12.5, he raises to 17.5 Spoon states:

He's betting 17.5bb when the pot is 12.5bb, so he would need us to fold about 58% for his bluff to be +EV, not counting his equity when we call. So let's see how often we're folding to a raise.

Which I am trying to figure out where the 58% comes from... 12.5/17.5 = 71%, 17.5/(17.5+12.5)=58% but why? so, let's just run with that... I have no idea why we use those numbers, and spoon wants honest opportunities to teach here, so I'm missing something basic. Anyway, villian needs me to fold 58% of the time. According to my figures above, and answers to exercise 2, I c-bet 80% of my hands, but I'd only continue further with a smaller range, 55, 66, TT, AT, JJ+, for a total of 45 hands now out of the original 297, for a percentage of 15%, making me vulnerable to his re-raise.

2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?

Ok, so I'm checking only about 20% of the hands I opened that flop with, 22, 33, 44, A2-4, A7-9 (though not all of the time in this range, but for the sake of the exercise, let's run with it). This is 114/297 hands or about 38%. If I check, pot is to him at 7.5 bb, he bets 2/3 pot, or 5bb, thus pot is now 12bb. To figure out his percentage, I think you take 12.5/(12.5+5) = 71%. Thus he needs me to fold 71% of my range pre-flop to make this profitable. Since my pre-flop checking range is 38% (62% of hands I bet with) and he needs me to fold 71% of the time, (29% of my hands go check-fold) I am still somewhat vulnerable, though not completely.

3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?
My c-betting range is trying to exploit his fit/fold policy by forcing him to dump hands that have middle/bottom pairs, or miss the flop completely, regardless of what I hold. While vulnerable to his response, if BU has my range a bit tighter than I'm playing, he'll be more exploitable, feeling I hit. If he knows I'm loose, he has a better feeling I might be bluffing at the pot (which I am a lot of my range) and will continue.

(Note: many of the answers in this post are probably laden with errors, as I don't know a lot of the poker math. I am also pretty weak on strategy, so take that into account. Spoon is trying to teach us willing to learn players out here something valuable, and I thank him for it... even if I get totally lost in the process...

Glad to see more posts ITT now.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

[7:10pm] <spoonitnow> I was thinking more of the turn in general instead of that specific one
[7:10pm] <dranger> oic
[7:11pm] <spoonitnow> Though that's a bit harder to quantify
[7:11pm] <dranger> ya
[7:11pm] <spoonitnow> You could pick a few different turns if you wanted

I'll be doing this tomorrow.

Took a little longer than I expected, but I'm finally getting around to it.

2.) Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?

Villain needs me to c/f 41&#37; of my flop c-betting range on the turn in order for a float to be profitable with KQ.

Board is T 6 5 A

Of my flop c-betting range, I am c/f this range on this turn:
K9s (3), Q9s (3), Q8s (3), J9s (3), J8s (3)

For a total of: 15 combos. Everything else in my range (that I spotted) has a GSSD or better.

15/250 = 6%

So lol no, I am not exploitable to a float if the villain holds KQ on A turn.

Another one!

2.) Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?

Once again, villain needs me to fold 41% in order for it to be profitable.

Board is T 6 5 4

Of my flop c-betting range I'm c/f this range on the turn:

AK (12), AQ (12), AJ (16), A9 (16), A2 (4), K9s (4), J9s (4), KQ (9), KJ (12), QJ (12)

For a total of: 101 combos

101/250 = 40%

So the answer is still no, but it's pretty close.

I'm trying to think of a turn card in which I actually would be exploitable by c/f too much... I think my range is such on this board vs this villain, that it isn't really profitable for him to float with pure air vs me since my range is usually connecting with a lot of turns such that I'm turning a lot of draws, two pair, etc.

You guys be sure to double-check your answers for the second question here. It doesn't work out the same as a flop raise because Villain isn't always putting in both bets (ie when you double barrel).

Balls, I'll go back through and edit my posts later when I wake up, I still haven't been to bed yet. Thanks, spoon.

Is it OK to read everyone's responses before I respond?

I have to admit, this task *appears* quite daunting.

I wonder if you could post this hand in a hand replayer...visualising it makes it a lot easier for me.

Make like Nike and Just Do It son!

Edited my previous posts due to &#37; villain needed me to c/f on turn being incorrect.

before i start, i'll just say that i know for absolute certain that i'm vulnerable to both a float and a flop raise playing my range the way i'm doing it. i'll get to why that doesn't change my answer in part 3 though:

1. i bet flop 4bb's with: A2s-A9s, AJs+, K7s-K9s, Q9s, 54s, 76s-98s, 75s-97s, J9s, J8s, A7o-A9o, AJo+, K9o, KJ+, QJ, 22-44, 77-99 {376 combos, i think, tough to do math with pen and paper}

i bet flop 6.5bb's with: TT+, 55, 66, 65s, QT+ {71 combos} and only plan to continue to a raise with (...wait for it.....) TT/66/55 65s for 11 combos lol.

so A) 376/447=84.1&#37; of the time, he wins 7.5+4=11.5bb's no questions asked. so that's .841 x 11.5 = 9.67bb's

B) 15.9% of the time i bet 6.5bb's and it goes like this:
1) 60/71=84.5% of the time, he wins 14bb's, so that's .159 x .845 x 14 = 1.88bb's
2) 11/71=15.5% of the time, he has 4.327% equity, so:
2a) 4.327% of the time he wins 30bb's, so that's .159 x .155 x .04327 x 30= 0.032bb's
2b) 95.673% of the time he loses 22.5bb's, so that's .159 x .155 x .95673 x -22.5= -0.531bb's

so 9.67 + 1.88 + .03 + (-.53)= 11.05bb's, which is so lolol profitable for him.

2) part one already took forever and i am quite daunted by part 2, so i'll call it a day for now. basically i know it's going to be exploitable, but i don't care 'cause i play my range this way on the assumption that he wouldn't be raising air here, much less KQ. if i thought he was capable of raising the flop as a bluff, i'd be leading with a different range and 3b'ing with air and semi bluffs and stacking off with KK+ and so forth.

so i have that covered, in case i don't get around to part 3. i'm trying to exploit the fact that he plays far too predictably and that i can play SUPER unbalanced and bluff with 97% of my range (literally) and not try to go for any kind of anything that's remotely close to thin value because overpairs are practically the bottom of his range

1) Fold 22-44, 77-99, QJ, KJ+, A9, AJ+
Continue: 55, 66, TT+, KT, AT
I fold 164 hands and continue with 74...so yes I am vulnerable.

2) Bet or c/c: 55, 66, TT+, KQ, A9s, AJ, AQs+, QJ, KJ
c/f: 22-44, 77-99, KT, KQo, A9o
I have 88 hands I c/f and 118 I either bet or c/c. The number is up b/c of some draws I now have.

3) My flop cbet is to exploit his fit or fold style when I have air and if I make a value bet I am hoping he will take his good, but worse than mine, too far. A nit will play fewer hands and sometimes takes the moderately good ones too far like TPTK.

I am very rusty at this math unfortunately so I hope I got the hand combos right.

1) Ok, so of my PF range of 22+, AT+, KJ+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s,
I'm betting the flop with 55, 66, TT-AA, 78, 89, any 2 missed overcards.

That's a total of 37 combos that I'll be continuing with against a raise 55 (3), 66(3), TT(3), JJ-AA (4*6=24), 78s (4). Then there's 16 combos of each of AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ and also 4 combos of 89s that I'll be folding, for a total of 100 combos folding. Umm, okay, I don't want to get raised here. You said the button was tight, right?

2) I'm betting the turn with 55, 66, TT, JJ, KK, AA, KQ, 78s, 89s, and AK, AQ of spades which means that I'm checking the rest of my flop betting range. So that's QQ (6), along with AJ (12), KJ (12) and QJ (12) for 42 combos I'll continue with against a raise, and AK, AQ except the spade ones for 30 combos I'll fold. Looks ok!

3) Flop c-betting range is exploiting the fact that he calls pre-flop with a tight range most of which is missed overcards with no straight or flush draw on this flop, and we expect him to fold these hands to our bet.

preflop range:
22+, A2s+, A9o+, K8s+, KTo+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J9s+, J9o+, suited connectors 45-9T

cbetting range:
55 (3), 66 (3), TT (3), QQ+ (18), A3s (4), A4s (4), A7s-A9s (12), ATs (3), AJs-AKs (12), A9o (12), ATo, (9) AJo-AKo (36), K8s (4), K9s (4), KTs (3), KJs (4), KQs (4), KTo (9), KJo (12), KQo (12), Q8s (4), Q9s (4), QTs (3) QJs (4), Q9o (12) QTo (9), QJo (12), J9s (4), J9o (12), 56s (2), 78s (4), 89s (4)

239 assuming i counted and added them correctly

against such a nit i probably continue to a flop raise with

55 (3), 66 (3), TT (3), QQ-AA (18) for a grand total of 27 combinations.
27/239= i continue with 11&#37; of my cbetting range versus villain's raise.
he's betting 22.5 to win 12.5 so 22.5(bet)/35(pot+bet) = 64%
obviously villain is owning me when he raises my cbet with KQ as i am folding 89% of the time.

if he floats my 5bb and bets 12 on the turn:
he needs me to check/fold 58% for his float to be +EV in a vacuum
versus such a nit (with no reads that he likes to float or sees me as as chronic cbettor/position raiser) i probably only continue to this turn bet with 55 (3), 66 (3), TT (3), JJ (3), QQ+ (18), KQs (4), KQo (12). i assume he only bets the river with legit nut hands so i can make ane easy fold with say QQ+, on most rivers versus this guy. i may also call a turn bet with AT or AJ for this reason but i'll leave them out. anyway. of my 239 combinations i cbet the flop with, i continue to a turn bet with 46 of them which = 19% of my cbetting range (meaning i fold to the turn bet 81% of the time) so yes he will own me when he floats me, the Jack falls and he bets the turn.

but.. he's a nit so he is pretty unlikely to do this and so i'm not particularly afraid of him taking this line (its also why i cbet against him so much)

ps i think i messed up by not factoring in the blockers to my KQ's on the turn because we somehow "know" he has KQ in the example. oh well.

1. Since I'm betting on a wide range on the flop and if villain is aware, I'm very vulnerable of my c-bet getting raised on a dry board (even if he raised with air), since I can only continue with super strong range.

2.

Originally Posted by Penyamon

[2]
broadway
55, 66
A5s, A6s
T9s

[3]
QQ+
sets
spade draw
JT, KJo, KQo

(I usually double barrel all my draws)

on the turn I am bringing 16.1% range of hands from the flop
I will c/f non spade of these hands: AKo (12), AKs (3), AQo (12), AQs (3), AJo (12), AJs (3), ATo (12), ATs (3), KTo (12), KTs (3), QJo (12), QJs (3), QTo (12), QTs (3), T9s (3), A5s (3), A6s (3) ~ 8.4% of hands

So I will c/f 8.4 over 16.1 of the time ~ 52%, is a small -EV for villain if he floats. But I think in real life it is close to neutral EV for him.

3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?
Since villain is nitty, we c-bet with a wide range because we know we have a big fold equity.

ok sorry to bring this thread out of the swamp, but i have a question, i have done the exercise and without crunching the actual numbers, i am continuing soooo wide on the flop that it is easy to see how i could be exploited with either a raise or a float on the turn, and i am only going to be continuing with 15-20% of my hands in these situations. And like everyone else has said, because he is a fit or fold nit and is playing his cards i continue to exploit this by being so unbalanced with bluffs until he starts raising and floating more, then i have to adjust my range.

so my question is, is that the point of this exercise? to realize that while we are making a good play at the moment, it is easily exploitable and once someone starts exploiting it you must adjust? or is it to realize that i am too wide in these spots and should not have such a lol weak range all the time in this situation?

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

ok sorry to bring this thread out of the swamp, but i have a question, i have done the exercise and without crunching the actual numbers, i am continuing soooo wide on the flop that it is easy to see how i could be exploited with either a raise or a float on the turn, and i am only going to be continuing with 15-20% of my hands in these situations. And like everyone else has said, because he is a fit or fold nit and is playing his cards i continue to exploit this by being so unbalanced with bluffs until he starts raising and floating more, then i have to adjust my range.

so my question is, is that the point of this exercise? to realize that while we are making a good play at the moment, it is easily exploitable and once someone starts exploiting it you must adjust? or is it to realize that i am too wide in these spots and should not have such a lol weak range all the time in this situation?

The bold

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You should complete Exercise 1 and Exercise 2 before you do this exercise.


Exercise 1 was sort of a warm-up to get you used to the idea of thinking about your own range and how it progresses over time. Exercise 2 was to get you used to thinking about how you're playing your entire range on one street. Both of these exercises are leading up to this exercise where we are going to think about the implications of our flop continuation betting range. Answer the following questions about your flop c-betting range, breaking down your range and proving the answers with some 6th grade math:

1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ?
2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?
3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?

so from last time i posted::

Here was my range from the previous exercise:
Face cards, 45s-9Ts, AXs, PP, 57s-8Ts

To be clear vs fit/fold I'm betting my entire range here.

Bet/fold - Anything that completely misses this board or hit far too lightly: 22-44, 77-99, Random face cards, 45s, 57s, 79s, 98s, 9Js (note this depends on his sizing) (anything that doesn't fit the other 2 categories)

Bet/call - 56s, 78s, TJ+, JJ+

bet/3bet - TT, 66, 55

1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ?

the hands that aren't vulnerable here the way I'm playing: 56s, 78s, TJ+, JJ+, TT, 66, 55
This makes up a total of about 33% of my hands

The rest are vulnerable.
So I'm folding about 66% of my hands to a pot sized raise (and some of the weaker tens probably, I put them in bet call, but regardless I'm vulnerable to a pot sized bet from KQ.

2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?

My ranges are slightly changed, but I am still vulnerable to a pot sized raise, as not any of the suited cards with straight draws, but rather flush+straight draws will be calling the turn, in fact now I am folding about 70% of my range to a pot sized bet.

3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?

If the villain is a fit/fold type player, I am assuming that the villain will be folding many moderate hands, I am c-betting ATC to try to get better hands to fold, while still having equity versus hands that are ahead of me, so the hands that call a raise still have decent equity versus his range, and the hands that I 3-bet are likely ahead of his range. He is likely folding, and if he continues, he is likely committing himself to the pot (goes with fit or fold), so if my draws hit I will likely get paid off.

Alright, so I ran through this exercise and here is a (perceived?) problem I am having.

Like everyone else, since we are 'pfr'ing wide and c-betting fairly wide, I found that I am exploitable to a flop pot-sized raise as I would be folding all but 12% or so of my holdings.

For question #2, however, I found that I was still marginally exploitable if the villain would flat my cbet and bet 2/3 the pot when checked to. Here's the justification:

(bet)/(pot+bet) = (0.666) / (1 + 0.666) = 40%

I have found that I am check/folding about 46% of my combinations at this juncture. Now, I know that the '40%' above represents how often his bluff needs to work for it to be profitable. I am having trouble understanding how this would relate to the 46% of the time we are taking a c/f line on this turn. Basically, 46% of the time, his bluff, that needs to work 40% of the time, is working 100% of the time. This of course assumes that I am not 'c/c'ing with anything (I assumed a bet/fold line instead). Am I understanding this correctly, and, if so, how do I handle this discrepancy?

Would it help to balance out some of the hands I'd b/f with (say, AT for instance) by 'c/c'ing instead? Obviously, I'm not sure this is the solution, as it would seem to only cause a shift between the 46% of the time I'm checking and the 100% of the time I'm check/folding (it may end up 50% / 96%, for example).

Am I wrong in not splitting up my hands between b/f and c/c more clearly? I have recently taken to splitting up my (and my opponent's) ranges into A, B, C and D groups, where A would bet and continue to a raise, B we'd bet/fold or call behind for pot control, etc. The B range seems to be where the divide between b/f and c/c occurs, and while these lines are probably somewhat interchangeable and situation (and villain) dependent, it's not always obvious how these should be split.

If I'm way off on everything I just wrote... physician, heal me.

When talking about floating, you need to be really careful about figuring out what the risk and reward are. The risk whenever you float is really broken up into two parts. You risk the amount you call on the flop (which you lose if your opponent barrels), then you risk the amount you bet on the turn if your opponent checks the turn but doesn't fold. Your reward is the size of the flop pot plus the size of your opponent's flop bet.

1)
Bet range: { 22+, A8o+, A2s+, K2s+, KTo+, QTo+, QTs+, JTo, JTs, 87s-T9s, T9o } == 329 combos
Continue range vs. raise: { 55, 66, TT, JJ+, ATo, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, 87s } == 58 combos

EV of his raise as a pure bluff:
Risk: 22.5 (his raise)
Reward: 12.5 (the flop pot plus our bet)
-22.5*58/329 + 12.5*(329-58)/329 == 6.33

So we are exploitable to a bluff raise on the flop, because his raise is +EV as a pure bluff (not even counting any equity his hand may have if we do call him).

2) Assuming the same Js hits on the turn:
Turn bet range: { 55, 66, TT-AA, JTo, JTs, Asxs, Ksxs, 7s8s, KQo, KQs, AJo } == 52 combos
Turn check/call range: { 77-99, ATo, ATs, KJo, KJs, QJo, QJs } == 54 combos

We bet the turn: he loses his flop call (5)
We check the turn, b/c: he loses flop call + flop bet (5 + 11.5)
We check the turn, b/f: he wins flop pot + our bet (12.5)

EV of his float:
-5*52/329 - 16.5*(329-52)/329*54/(329-52) + 12.5*(329-52)/329*(329-52-54)/(329-52)
= 4.97

So his float is profitable as a pure bluff, making us exploitable.

3) We are trying to exploit the fact that the villain folds too much on the flop and only calls/raises with strong hands, letting us bluff a much wider range than we we normally would against a "standard" player.

[1]A nitty Tagg has called PF. I must assume that he at least matches my opening range from excercise 1.(22+,AJo+,ATs+, 67s+, and occasionally weaker hands)
Since I cbet virtually all of these hands his raise on the flop must be treated with respect.
Not actually knowing he has KQ in this example I would only continue with 66, 77, TT+. Ax and draws would have to fold.(Probably about 80% of my cbet range)
Folding 4/5 means that my cbet is indeed exploitable here.

[2]If he raises when I check the turn I feel I'm in a similar situation.

[3]The purpose of my flop cbetting range was to exploit his tendency to fold if he didn't hit something on the flop.
However this exercise has shown that my tactics can easily be exploited in return and would have to change in the face of repeated aggression.

On a personal note I found it interesting that these exercises caused me to think about what I SHOULD do, not necessarily what I HAVE done in the past. Is this a sign of something being learned?

The numbers might be a bit off here in terms of the relation between my range and the number of combos, just because I am tired and scared of maths. Nevertheless I took in the lesson this thread is teaching, regardless of whether im off by a percentage or two. Much appreciated spoon.

1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ?
2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?
3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?

1:

Beginning range of:
22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,A8o+,KTo+, QTo+,JTo
A2s-A7s (22), 22-44(18), 55-66(6), TT(3),JJ(6),KK(3),QQ(3),88-99(18) A8-a9(12) ATs(3),AQs(3),AJs(4),KTs(2),KQs(3),KJs(3),QJs(3),J 9s(4),76s(3),AQo(9),AJo(12) ,ATo(9),KTo(7),KQo(6),KJo(9),QJo(9),Q10s(2)
182 combos.
Continue with:
TT+,66-55,ATs,KTs,ATo,KTo
AA(6), KK(3), QQ(3), JJ(6), TT(3), 66(3), 55(3), AT(12), KT(9)
48 combos.
48/182 = .26
This means I continue with 26% of hands, and fold 74%. I am very vulnerable to a flop-raise.


2:


Bet range on the turn:
TT+,66-55,AsKs,AsQs,AJs-ATs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,KJs+,Q Js,JTs,Ts9s,9s8s,8s7s,7s6s,AJo-ATo,KJo+,QJo,JTo
55-66(6), TT(2),JJ(3),KK(3),QQ(3),AA(6),AKs(3), ATs(2),AQs(1),AJs(3),KTs(2),KQs(3),KJs(3),QJs(3),J 10s(1), T9s(2),9s8s-7s6s(3),AJo(12) ,ATo(9),KTo(7),KQo(6),KJo(9),QJo(9),Q10s(2) As9s-As2s(8) =111
182-111 = 71.
C/fold the turn: 71.
71/182= 39%
This means I continue with 61% of hands, and c/fold 39%. I am not overly vulnerable being floated here.


3.

I am exploitable because I have attributed the villain with a nitty image, and consequently lack faith in his ability to aggress on pots without a strong hand. This leaves vulnerable to him adjusting to a looser range, while he still projects a tight image.


If i've counted anything up completely wrong would appreciate correction, this sort of stuff isnt normally my cuppa-tea. Cheers.

1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ?

I think I'm getting this right. It all suddenly got technical so I may have erred at times/all the time.

Betting range on flop: 66, TT+, AJ+, KJ+, KQ, T9s+, JTs+, Q9s+, K9s+, A9s+

Villain holds KQ on T65 rainbow

Pairs: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 66 (6)
Suited: AK, AQ, AK, AJ, AT, A9, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, QJ, Q9, T9 (52)
Unsuited: AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ (60)

118 combinations

Folding to everything under TPTK (That's right, right?) leaves us continuing with:

Pairs: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 66 (6)
Suited: AT, KT, QT, JT, T9 (16)
Unsuited: (0)

22 combinations

22/118 = 18.6%
Folding = 81.4%

Very vulnerable to the pot raise.



2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?

Betting 5bb into the 7.5bb pot = 12.5bb pot
Villain calling 5bb = 17.5bb pot
Check the turn
Villain bets 2/3 of the pot = ~12bb
Pot = ~19.5 bb
cost to call = ~12bb

Turn = T65J

Assuming we're betting our turn hand from Exercise 1 we play:

Pairs: JJ, TT (2)
Suited: AJ, AT, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT (28)
Unsuited: AJ, KJ (24)

Total combinations = 54

54/118 = 45.8%
Folding = 54.2%

Villain's float on the turn is not immediately profitable

One thing I found interesting when working out what bet size villain would need in order to make the bluff profitable, was that the smaller the bet, the more profitable the bluff. A half-pot bet was profitable down to around 52% fold rate, and a quarter pot bet down to 43%. Of course, lower bets result in hands becoming more viable with worse odds. A quarter-pot bet by the villain would make flush draws and open ended straights +EV for the hero, reducing our folding rate. But a half pot bet should be enough to make most drawing hands -EV for the hero in this situation - anything with 11 or fewer outs in fact.



3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?[/QUOTE]

BU plays fit-or-fold. The initial cbet was an attempt to steal the pot there and then, or to at least gain some information on villain's hand.

1. yes because i'm b/f'ing almost everything, but i doubt too many tight tags at 10nl do that

2. no cuz we're barreling, baby!

3. weak tight play, i expect alot of villains, as described, to fold overs or underpairs otf, or to call the flop and fold ott

1.Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ?

Yes. I am extremely vulnerable.
Against a tagg on the button I would make a move with ATC, and keep doing it until he plays back at me and then adjust.
My c-bet range is everything and 5bb is about right. If the button comes over the top with a 17.5bb raise then I’m only continuing with one of 132 hands, or about 10%, because he’s either adjusted to my c-bets or he has a hand that beats most of my opening range:
top 2 pr (10h,c,d 6d,c,h,s[12 hands]); a set 66, 55, TT[9 hands]; a BDFD (66 hands) or an OESD (7-8, 4-7, 3-4 not of spades) --45 hands.

2.Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?
I would c/f the OESD and check the flush draws below 9 high, which is 73 of the 132 hands or about 55%, but this is where I get confused:
I know that he’s offering me about 2.5 to one odds with his 2/3 pot bet ((17.5bb pot +12bb bet)/ 12bb to call) but when I try to figure out the implied odds to draw I get lost.

If I’m wrong on the math then please help me but here goes: with a call the pot will be 41.5bb. I think he’d call about ½ to ¾ of the pot or about 21bb to 31bb for a total of 72.5bb in the pot if I hit the flush. So 72.5bb (expected pot size)/12bb (current bet to call) = 6 to 1 so I should call with the FD.

If I was correct with that then I will only c/f 45 hands (OESD) out of 132 hands, or about 34%. So, I’m vulnerable but his bluff would be a –EV.

3.What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?

My flop c-betting range is trying to exploit two things: the tightness of his opening range and post flop play combined with the fact that most flops miss most hands. It might be better to tighten up my opening range a bit when on the cut off, but normally the numerous small pots that I take down PF or on the flop have covered the occasional loss when I have to fold or lose a showdown.