Probability question (math nerds welcome)

[Renton]

So would the results of playing the spin n gos or MTTs fall along the normal distribution as well?

[MadMojoMonkey]

So would the results of playing the spin n gos or MTTs fall along the normal distribution as well?

It all depends on what you mean by results.

As far as the number of wins in N trials, it will be a Binomial distribution.

As far as the value of wins, I'd really like to work out a couple of hand examples before I commit.
My gut says that as long as the sample size is large enough to allow for the least likely results to have happened a few times, then the outcomes will be very nearly a normal distribution. In the short term cases, there may be extreme outliers from a normal distribution, but it is expected that the infrequent events will happen equally infrequently in all trials.

I mean. If you have something with a 1% chance of occurring, and you take a sample size of 10, then you might get 4 to 6 that look the same before you see that one that looks skewed. You might be tempted to see a lack of symmetry in the distribution with 18 the same and 2 outliers. By the time its 1800 the same with 200 cases that are clearly not outliers, you will see that trials of length 10 were just too small to notice the distribution play out.

It's a case of small samples.