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 Originally Posted by Renton
Can you address what the results of my long form calculation at the end of the post would be? Would it be the same as the 95% confidence interval or something different entirely. If the latter, then confidence interval is definitely not the value that interests me.
In cell B1 input 0.33
In cell C1 input =(1-B1)
{I format these as percents, but whatever}
In cell A2 input 0
In cell A3 input 1
In cell A4 input 2
{select cells A2 - A4, drag the bottom-right corner of the selected group down so that column A has numbers 0 - 100}
In cell B2 input =COMBIN(100,A2) * B$1^A2 * C$1^(100-A2)
{double-click the bottom right corner of B2 after entering the above formula to fill column B in just the right way.}
In cell C2 input =B2
In cell C3 input =SUM(B$2:B3)
{double-click the bottom right corner of C3 after entering the above formula to fill column C in just the right way.}
Make graphs of Columns B and C, with Column A as the x-axis.
The top is the probability distribution for X wins after 100 trials.
The bottom is the cumulative distribution for X wins after 100 trials. (It is the integral of the top function.)
Bottom may be the more informative graph.
A cursory glance pulls out the 90% CI as [25, 40].
I excluded the lower and upper 5%, leaving the middle 90%.
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