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 Originally Posted by Renton
Indeed, I used jackvances method of providing a 95% range of outcomes for 100 trials and it comes out that the lower bounds is -3500 dollars, which is impossible since even if you lost all 100 games you'd only be out 3000.
There is def something wrong with your calculation if you got a result that is beyond the boundaries of the test.
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What's rough about this thread is that you (Renton) are just getting the hang of how important it is to know what kind of questions can be answered by probability theory. Once you know what kind of questions can be answered, then you will be intuitively better at formulating questions which imply a method for finding the answer. This is just a phase in the learning process that everyone goes through. You'll be over the hump in a couple of weeks (or thereabouts).
On this current problem:
What are you given? (e.g. value and probability of outcomes)
What exactly is your question? (E.g. what is Hero's the EV after 100 trials @ 95% CI?)
What are you assuming? (e.g. players of equal skill; Hero has 67% chance of losing $30, 33% chance of winning $X.)
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