bottom set facing b/c, c/r big line

[couriermike]

Villain is 29/11/1 over 40 hands. He bet/calls small on the flop, then check/raises the turn huge. How do you read that? Would you ever fold here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($31.39)
UTG ($48.13)
MP ($22.60)
Hero (CO) ($30.12)
Button ($25)
SB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2, 2
1 fold, MP bets $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 2, 7, 4 (2 players)
MP bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, MP calls $1

Turn: ($5.05) 3 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3, MP raises to $14.05, Hero ?

[philly and the phanatics]

....at least try making a range

[Ope]

that flop raise should be bigger dont you think? this block bet usually means some kind of draw and you are giving him very good odds with this raise. Also he could have bottom pair with which he made 2pair on turn and want to get allin.

[rong]

He has 44, 77, JJ+ imo

Shove it. Then take a note when you see his hand.

[couriermike]

Look at his line. b/c small, c/r huge. Can you find any examples in your db of this being a one-pair hand, or even a two-pair hand?

[mrhappy333]

A5suited is in his range too, yeah?
disclaimer *I never play 6max

[couriermike]

....at least try making a range

When he takes this trappy, committing line, I think he has a hand he always wants to get all-in with, in which case I should fold, because I am actually behind every hand in that range, which I put at sets+. I even thought that during the hand, but I didn't fold because I'm bad at poker. It's not always a cooler when you lose with a set, Philly, and there's nothing wrong with threads asking about those situations. If you think the hand is stupid, fine, but talk poker and give reasons.

[Donachello]

I don't understand how A5 and 65 aren't in his range at least part of the time. He's clearly a splashy/bad player, 40 hands of stats can be drastically different than what he is actually running, and c/jamming reps nothing worse than straights and 77, maybe 33 :S.

If this is RUSH I'd pretty much snap fold. If this is regular 6max I'm probably going to end up calling a bit more often because I'd be curious to get a read on how he plays. For example, if he plays sets like this you can infer he is EXTREMELY trappy who likes to bet small to induce raises. If he shows up with 65 here you know that he's one of those players that will play SC from pretty much every position and leads their draws/rarely folds draws.

Like I said, a read like that is pretty invaluable when you have someone at your table for an extended period of time and while notes on people in RUSH is nice I probably wouldn't pay a stack to have one like this since we won't be seeing him all that often.

PS. talking about spots like this is pretty fucking vital so anyone who says LOL STD COOLER YOU BITCH is straight up wrong.

[Miffed22001]

Preflop is fine

Raise the flop bigger - why? Look at your opponent. The read given tells you hes a monkey so if he donk bets mash the raise button! Yes, a half decent player here will know what hand you have - or at least reassess their range - a 30/11 whale wont - AA is teh nuts hes never folding here!

If you play the flop better - eg raise to $3.00 and villain calls you then have a pot of $8.00~ on the turn and when you bet the turn your not folding given the odds anyway and if he sucked out cool. If you were behind then the read given by you as your HUD says you dont care it was set over set as villain is just a whale anyway.

If this were a hand against a decent (for 25nl) TAGG winning player at 25nl you'd probably puke fold the turn a good percentage of the time as a TAGGs range here is much tighter and contains the nuts more - but then they may not call the flop raise.

[philly and the phanatics]

when he raised that big on the turn its pretty fucking LDO he just hit the pot button....A5 is def not in his range imo, who flats a raise there with a gutshot, youd think if he was gonna keep playing A5 he would just shove the flop imo.....but yea this could be AA/KK all day imo....there are spots that are interesting with sets, this is not one of them courier mike. Because you are too big of a lazy pussy to put people on ranges and insist on posting 329048208 "i have a set and i lawst " threads when none of them ever have a semblance of a range, i will do it for you.



Board: 2s 7c 4d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.236% 54.24% 00.00% 525 0.00 { 2c2d }
Hand 1: 45.764% 45.76% 00.00% 443 0.00 { KK+, 77, 44, 65s }


you said you think his range is just shit that beats you, well then OK fucking fold, the hand comes down to what you think his range is, and if you think his range is just sets/str8s then fold ffs....dont make some whiney thread about it. My guess is everyone on here is going to have AA/KK in his range. You knew that before posting. So if you are going to insist "no its just stuff that beats me he doesnt have AA/KK" then fold.

[!Luck]

Stop putting 65s in his range

[philly and the phanatics]

lol whats the difference, it illustrates how even with MORE combos that beat us, it is still EV+ to get it in assuming he has AA/KK.

[Carroters]

Jam it. This is big pairs a plenty vs a tard like this. This dude is actually way more likely to raise the turn smaller with a set, so not only are there more combos of JJ+ etc than sets, I'd also weight his range further still towards these hands with this sizing.

[Carroters]

And yeah post a range next time. As you play more and more with these tards, you'll stop mnaking assumptions based on the results of one hand.

[Donachello]

at pretty much everything said in this thread

[Carroters]

Lol at you for both making his range include hands he very likely isn't opening preflop based on his stats and for thinking he can't play over pairs this way.

Fish have played overpairs like this vs me countless times. Like I say I'd be way more scared if he clicked back the turn.

[Carroters]

The thing is, he has like 6 combos of sets, all he needs is like AA and sets and it's a snap.

The gap between vpip and pfr coupled with low pfr makes it pretty damn likely he just never opens any combos of 56s or A5s or A5o here. The clue is in the fact that he likes to limp hands and not raise much preflop; we just can't include these hands in his range. It really is a lol easy felt without a read he can't ever play overpairs this way. AA KK etc is the nust to so many of these passive fucks that wait around before they put much money into the pot. They will slowplay these hands as such and to think otherwise and want to fold vs this guy when he has literally 6 combos of hand that beat us is a pretty big error.

Also, shit look at this vpip/pfr. He's limping the pairs that flop sets here such a huge amount of the time.

A fold here is rediculously bad based on all of this. Like wtf.

[Donachello]

I still think you are wrong that a player like this bets .50 and only calls the flop with AA and KK. Personal opinion/recent experience at this stake to me makes me put AA and KK in his range based on flop play as far less likely than you do. I actually can't remember seeing a player as described in OP ever do anything besides mash pot on these sorts of flops with over pairs.

Regardless, opinion differences and such.

[profnabeshin]

Do you think that with his low Pfr that As7s is possibly in his open raising range?

In this situation I am jamming the turn overtop of his 'raise pot'. You are set up to get it all in on river anyways.

[Shotglass]

Lol at you for both making his range include hands he very likely isn't opening preflop based on his stats and for thinking he can't play over pairs this way.

Fish have played overpairs like this vs me countless times. Like I say I'd be way more scared if he clicked back the turn.

This^^^def this. There's no way that 65 is in his opening range, maybe not even 44....but we'll leave that in for the sake of argument. If he won't open raise with 65 then how in the hell does he have it on the turn? It definately looks like an overpair.

[Robin]

What is your range for betting the turn, and what does he think it is?

If I were you, I'd raise his flop donk with 80+% of my pre-flop flatting range, and I'd be betting a substantial part of that on the turn after he checks: TT+ and turned flush draws at the very least.

If (he thinks) your turn betting range is anything like this, then it's reasonable for him to check/raise KK+ (personally I think I would c/r QQ+ and a few semi-bluffs in this spot, assuming I never lead the turn).

Short version: both of you still have wide ranges after the flop, so suddenly becoming super tight on the turn would be a mistake.

People are doing calculations above showing you shouldn't fold, and if anything they are assuming he has a smaller range than he should. To make it a fold, he has to be very weak-tight. I'd fold here vs less than 1% of players I've ever seen.

I agree that he could have 56s or A5s in his range, but I don't think it really matters - the details are different but you still both have wide ranges on the turn and you're still too near the top of yours to do anything but stick the money in without a massive read.

I'm ignoring sizing. Inexperienced players have no idea how to size their bet in this spot, regardless of what hand they have, so I think it tells us nothing.

[Shotglass]

What is your range for betting the turn, and what does he think it is?

If (he thinks) your turn betting range is anything like this, then it's reasonable for him to check/raise KK+

I'm ignoring sizing. Inexperienced players have no idea how to size their bet in this spot, regardless of what hand they have, so I think it tells us nothing.

I understand your reasoning and your thought process, but most inexperienced players are WAY more concerned about what they have in their hand than trying to figure out what's in Mike's. If he's truly inexperienced then Mike would be thinking a level too high when he starts to be concerned with what the villain thinks he has and would make some incorrect plays.

Ranges get more narrow as you go through the hand, not wider so if he didn't have 56 PF then he's not going to have it on the turn. I'm still thinking overpair or maybe FD to the nuts (AK ) with a gutshot.

[Miffed22001]

I understand your reasoning and your thought process, but most inexperienced players are WAY more concerned about what they have in their hand than trying to figure out what's in Mike's. If he's truly inexperienced then Mike would be thinking a level too high when he starts to be concerned with what the villain thinks he has and would make some incorrect plays.

Ranges get more narrow as you go through the hand, not wider so if he didn't have 56 PF then he's not going to have it on the turn. I'm still thinking overpair or maybe FD to the nuts (AK ) with a gutshot.

Agree with your thoughts, but you give him too much credit for a hand with equity - considering Hero's fishy looking line this as got to be an overpair loads of the time. Dont we make money for 30/10 whales who can never fold AA vs our set line...

[Shotglass]

@Miffed...
I agree completely. That's why I wrote maybe a fd/gutshot, but that's a SLIM chance. Anyways, I'm never folding here.

[couriermike]

DanAronG gives villain a range of 44, 77, JJ+, which, if he ever does this with overpairs, is pretty reasonable. Against that range, bottom set is 75% and AA is 74%.

Philly gives villain a range of 44, 77, KK+. Against that range bottom set is 61%, 55% if you throw in 65s. Maybe he raises 65s, maybe not. Against the same two ranges with AA, we're 55% and 42%.

Treating his turn c/r like a shove, we're getting pot odds of 38%. So we should call with AA.

Are you ever calling with AA here? Because that's basically what our hand is.

I don't see how you guys can say this is usually an overpair. I have never seen an AF 1 guy play their overpairs this way. Usually they just call down. It's weird that you guys don't see this as a big hand almost always.

edit:
I mean, if he can't have two pair hands, which he really shouldn't, then getting it in with 222 is basically the same as AA, and who jams or calls AA here, right?

[Shotglass]

Yeah, the aggression factor of 1 means something, but the 29/11 gap between played and raised imo means a lot more in this case. That big of a gap normally means he's limping MP more with 65 and small pp than raisin and, unless I'm reading his stats wrong, indicates an overpair.

[Razvan729]

i waited and thought about the hand. i really dont wanna say something stupid cause these are stakes higher then i play.

my reasoning for him on JJ+ is betting line from both of you.

i have seen a lot betting 1/4 pot flop with overpairs on those kind of boards. he may be scared of a set, cause 22,44,77 are all in your range, when you reraised him 3x wasnt a reraise that shows strenght in relation to the pot, cause pot on flop was 2 he bets 0,5 and you reraise to 1,5 so he has to to call 1 in a 4 pot, so i would ( maybe my leak) put you on 67s, A7s,87s, 88,99,TT, then you bet 60% pot on turn where comes a FD+ gutshotdraw and he could reraises easily with JJ+ since your bet again show no strenght and to deny you pot odds to chase with a As7s,8s7s,6s7s or to get value from 88,99,TT. since my JJ + against this range As7s,6s7s,8s7s,88-TT, 22,44,77 has equity and with the dead money on the pot i would even shove turn.

maybe all wrong, all my leaks, but if i were villain i would play turn like this and think it like this ( tho i would 3/4 pot i were JJ+ on flop here).

i maybe be wrong with all of these, but i think its a way he may think on your hand and a reason for him to play JJ+ like this.

[rong]

DanAronG gives villain a range of 44, 77, JJ+, which, if he ever does this with overpairs, is pretty reasonable. Against that range, bottom set is 75% and AA is 74%.

Philly gives villain a range of 44, 77, KK+. Against that range bottom set is 61%, 55% if you throw in 65s. Maybe he raises 65s, maybe not. Against the same two ranges with AA, we're 55% and 42%.

Treating his turn c/r like a shove, we're getting pot odds of 38%. So we should call with AA.

Are you ever calling with AA here? Because that's basically what our hand is.

I don't see how you guys can say this is usually an overpair. I have never seen an AF 1 guy play their overpairs this way. Usually they just call down. It's weird that you guys don't see this as a big hand almost always.

edit:
I mean, if he can't have two pair hands, which he really shouldn't, then getting it in with 222 is basically the same as AA, and who jams or calls AA here, right?

I'd call with AA, purely because of such a low flop, I only really expect to see 77 or JJ+ with this villain, and there's a lot more JJ+s out there than 77s. I don't see 65 here, and I'm not putting him solely on 77 or the more unlikely 44.

[Carroters]

AF is fairly irrelevant here in terms of whether he can have overpairs. Okay think what sort of hands a 30/11 is usually going to have held post flop over the sample you have. Weak one pair hands, air and draws most of the time. For a guy playing this many hands an AF like this is just indicative that he doesn't too bluff much or go mental with weak one pair or draw hands which are going to be the vast majority of his holdings over this sample. It in no way makes him super unlikely to take a line like this with AA or KK which he will consdier to be the nuts here.

I'm getting tilited that this thread is still going on and that people still want to fold here.

He has at a MAXIMUM 6 combos of better hands and on average even less than this due to his preflop raising range probably not containing 44 and sometimes not even 77. He needs to have like 4 combos or whatever of AA and nothing else and it's a fucking call.

Assuming a 30/11 fish can't do this with overpairs at all is a big mistake. You need some sort of relevant read for this to be likely and not just staring at a stat you overestimate the importance of and don't understand how to interpret properly.

Also, having AA is not the same as having 22 since when you have AA he has an extra 3 potential combos of sets and 6 less combos of worse hands. However AA is still a call vs a guy who can't even have near the 9 combos of possible sets very often due to him limping 22 and 44 very frequently.

I have no idea why people claim one spot is the same as another without checking how ranges and equity differ due to combinations, card removal etc. When a guy already has a very tight value range (as you seem to think here) and you think it's a close spot, adding or removing 6 fucking combos of worse hands or 3 of better is going to be a huge proportion of that range and make a big difference!

Given that his range is nowhere near as tight as you seem to think though, it doesn't change our decision here whether we have AA or 22. Making this presumptuous mistake of comparing 2 different situations however, will fuck you over in spots where ranges actually are this narrow so look out for that.

[Carroters]

Wow this only 40 hands. AF is seriously almost irrelevant over this sample. Remove it from your hud until you understand it if it's cuasing you to fold in spots like this.

[Shotglass]

[Carroters]

[couriermike]

222 is only slightly better than AA in this situation, and continuing with AA here would be a huge mistake. You guys know that. Baluga etc.

[Carroters]

222 is only slightly better than AA in this situation, and continuing with AA here would be a huge mistake. You guys know that. Baluga etc.

With AA

Board: 2s 7c 4d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.591% 43.47% 03.13% 1836 132.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 53.409% 50.28% 03.13% 2124 132.00 { KK+, 77, 44, 22 }


With 22

Board: 2s 7c 4d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.364% 61.36% 00.00% 1458 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 38.636% 38.64% 00.00% 918 0.00 { KK+, 77, 44 }



How the hell is this only slightly better? This will change a fold into a call in so many situations (but it's still a call with both 22 and AA in this hand)

You'd do a lot better if you listened to what people actually said to you instead of applying vague terms to everything and avoiding ranges and equity entirely.

[Carroters]

QFT

[Carroters]

And as has been said if you're going to insist thathis range is sets+ then obviously both AA and 22 are a fold, and using "22 is the same as AA" is lol and pointless. It's a terrible assumption to make since you've given us no reason to believe that's the case. Feel like this thread is wasting everyone who's trying to help's time and should be locked sicne OP is convinced he knows what his opponent's range is and isn't remotely interested in addressing important counter points that people are giving their time to produce.

[Shotglass]

I agree......

[couriermike]

I do appreciate your efforts in laying things out, Carroters, even though we have some disagreement on the significance of this line. Wasn't trying to be rude or anything. Peace out.

[Carroters]

It's all good and you're free to disagree. It seemed you hadn't read or considered any of my arguments though and were just talking past them. If you've read all that and still believe his range is only sets+ and this is a fold then but that's cool.