AF is fairly irrelevant here in terms of whether he can have overpairs. Okay think what sort of hands a 30/11 is usually going to have held post flop over the sample you have. Weak one pair hands, air and draws most of the time. For a guy playing this many hands an AF like this is just indicative that he doesn't too bluff much or go mental with weak one pair or draw hands which are going to be the vast majority of his holdings over this sample. It in no way makes him super unlikely to take a line like this with AA or KK which he will consdier to be the nuts here.

I'm getting tilited that this thread is still going on and that people still want to fold here.

He has at a MAXIMUM 6 combos of better hands and on average even less than this due to his preflop raising range probably not containing 44 and sometimes not even 77. He needs to have like 4 combos or whatever of AA and nothing else and it's a fucking call.

Assuming a 30/11 fish can't do this with overpairs at all is a big mistake. You need some sort of relevant read for this to be likely and not just staring at a stat you overestimate the importance of and don't understand how to interpret properly.

Also, having AA is not the same as having 22 since when you have AA he has an extra 3 potential combos of sets and 6 less combos of worse hands. However AA is still a call vs a guy who can't even have near the 9 combos of possible sets very often due to him limping 22 and 44 very frequently.

I have no idea why people claim one spot is the same as another without checking how ranges and equity differ due to combinations, card removal etc. When a guy already has a very tight value range (as you seem to think here) and you think it's a close spot, adding or removing 6 fucking combos of worse hands or 3 of better is going to be a huge proportion of that range and make a big difference!

Given that his range is nowhere near as tight as you seem to think though, it doesn't change our decision here whether we have AA or 22. Making this presumptuous mistake of comparing 2 different situations however, will fuck you over in spots where ranges actually are this narrow so look out for that.