bottom set facing b/c, c/r big line

Originally Posted by couriermike

DanAronG gives villain a range of 44, 77, JJ+, which, if he ever does this with overpairs, is pretty reasonable. Against that range, bottom set is 75% and AA is 74%.

Philly gives villain a range of 44, 77, KK+. Against that range bottom set is 61%, 55% if you throw in 65s. Maybe he raises 65s, maybe not. Against the same two ranges with AA, we're 55% and 42%.

Treating his turn c/r like a shove, we're getting pot odds of 38%. So we should call with AA.

Are you ever calling with AA here? Because that's basically what our hand is.

I don't see how you guys can say this is usually an overpair. I have never seen an AF 1 guy play their overpairs this way. Usually they just call down. It's weird that you guys don't see this as a big hand almost always.

edit:
I mean, if he can't have two pair hands, which he really shouldn't, then getting it in with 222 is basically the same as AA, and who jams or calls AA here, right?

I'd call with AA, purely because of such a low flop, I only really expect to see 77 or JJ+ with this villain, and there's a lot more JJ+s out there than 77s. I don't see 65 here, and I'm not putting him solely on 77 or the more unlikely 44.

AF is fairly irrelevant here in terms of whether he can have overpairs. Okay think what sort of hands a 30/11 is usually going to have held post flop over the sample you have. Weak one pair hands, air and draws most of the time. For a guy playing this many hands an AF like this is just indicative that he doesn't too bluff much or go mental with weak one pair or draw hands which are going to be the vast majority of his holdings over this sample. It in no way makes him super unlikely to take a line like this with AA or KK which he will consdier to be the nuts here.

I'm getting tilited that this thread is still going on and that people still want to fold here.

He has at a MAXIMUM 6 combos of better hands and on average even less than this due to his preflop raising range probably not containing 44 and sometimes not even 77. He needs to have like 4 combos or whatever of AA and nothing else and it's a fucking call.

Assuming a 30/11 fish can't do this with overpairs at all is a big mistake. You need some sort of relevant read for this to be likely and not just staring at a stat you overestimate the importance of and don't understand how to interpret properly.

Also, having AA is not the same as having 22 since when you have AA he has an extra 3 potential combos of sets and 6 less combos of worse hands. However AA is still a call vs a guy who can't even have near the 9 combos of possible sets very often due to him limping 22 and 44 very frequently.

I have no idea why people claim one spot is the same as another without checking how ranges and equity differ due to combinations, card removal etc. When a guy already has a very tight value range (as you seem to think here) and you think it's a close spot, adding or removing 6 fucking combos of worse hands or 3 of better is going to be a huge proportion of that range and make a big difference!

Given that his range is nowhere near as tight as you seem to think though, it doesn't change our decision here whether we have AA or 22. Making this presumptuous mistake of comparing 2 different situations however, will fuck you over in spots where ranges actually are this narrow so look out for that.

Wow this only 40 hands. AF is seriously almost irrelevant over this sample. Remove it from your hud until you understand it if it's cuasing you to fold in spots like this.