bottom set facing b/c, c/r big line

What is your range for betting the turn, and what does he think it is?

If I were you, I'd raise his flop donk with 80+% of my pre-flop flatting range, and I'd be betting a substantial part of that on the turn after he checks: TT+ and turned flush draws at the very least.

If (he thinks) your turn betting range is anything like this, then it's reasonable for him to check/raise KK+ (personally I think I would c/r QQ+ and a few semi-bluffs in this spot, assuming I never lead the turn).

Short version: both of you still have wide ranges after the flop, so suddenly becoming super tight on the turn would be a mistake.

People are doing calculations above showing you shouldn't fold, and if anything they are assuming he has a smaller range than he should. To make it a fold, he has to be very weak-tight. I'd fold here vs less than 1% of players I've ever seen.

I agree that he could have 56s or A5s in his range, but I don't think it really matters - the details are different but you still both have wide ranges on the turn and you're still too near the top of yours to do anything but stick the money in without a massive read.

I'm ignoring sizing. Inexperienced players have no idea how to size their bet in this spot, regardless of what hand they have, so I think it tells us nothing.

Originally Posted by Robin

What is your range for betting the turn, and what does he think it is?

If (he thinks) your turn betting range is anything like this, then it's reasonable for him to check/raise KK+

I'm ignoring sizing. Inexperienced players have no idea how to size their bet in this spot, regardless of what hand they have, so I think it tells us nothing.

I understand your reasoning and your thought process, but most inexperienced players are WAY more concerned about what they have in their hand than trying to figure out what's in Mike's. If he's truly inexperienced then Mike would be thinking a level too high when he starts to be concerned with what the villain thinks he has and would make some incorrect plays.

Ranges get more narrow as you go through the hand, not wider so if he didn't have 56 PF then he's not going to have it on the turn. I'm still thinking overpair or maybe FD to the nuts (AK ) with a gutshot.

Originally Posted by Shotglass

I understand your reasoning and your thought process, but most inexperienced players are WAY more concerned about what they have in their hand than trying to figure out what's in Mike's. If he's truly inexperienced then Mike would be thinking a level too high when he starts to be concerned with what the villain thinks he has and would make some incorrect plays.

Ranges get more narrow as you go through the hand, not wider so if he didn't have 56 PF then he's not going to have it on the turn. I'm still thinking overpair or maybe FD to the nuts (AK ) with a gutshot.

Agree with your thoughts, but you give him too much credit for a hand with equity - considering Hero's fishy looking line this as got to be an overpair loads of the time. Dont we make money for 30/10 whales who can never fold AA vs our set line...