DanAronG gives villain a range of 44, 77, JJ+, which, if he ever does this with overpairs, is pretty reasonable. Against that range, bottom set is 75% and AA is 74%.
Philly gives villain a range of 44, 77, KK+. Against that range bottom set is 61%, 55% if you throw in 65s. Maybe he raises 65s, maybe not. Against the same two ranges with AA, we're 55% and 42%.
Treating his turn c/r like a shove, we're getting pot odds of 38%. So we should call with AA.
Are you ever calling with AA here? Because that's basically what our hand is.
I don't see how you guys can say this is usually an overpair. I have never seen an AF 1 guy play their overpairs this way. Usually they just call down. It's weird that you guys don't see this as a big hand almost always.
edit:
I mean, if he can't have two pair hands, which he really shouldn't, then getting it in with 222 is basically the same as AA, and who jams or calls AA here, right?
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