am i rlly a feesh? 63s on btn vs supertight UTG range

[OngBonga]

Flop 2 pair = 2.02%
Flop trips = 1.35%
Flop straight with 2 gapper = 0.65%
Flop a flush = 0.84%
Total = 4.86%
Or ~20:1.

Wow, that's not good. Thanks for this, and thanks shotglass for crunching the numbers also. The only draw I'm interested in is one which gives us >50% equity, ie an open-ended straight draw + flush draw (pair is a bonus). I'm happy to get it in in that event. I'm also interested to know if these odds above include the long-shot flops, like quads and boats, not that it would make enough difference. I think with 20:1 flop odds, it's pretty fucking close. I can still imagine calling is slightly +ev due to the station being in the pot, our implied odds are pretty high with him in too, but I can't see we stack both off in our favour very often at all. But it's not the "easy fucking call" I was on about a few posts ago, I thought we were hitting like twice as many flops hard enough. I guess my time hasn't been wasted because I now know what my flop odds are for 2-gappers to take on aces.

Luck, so long as we only lose one in five times when we get it in on the flop, I'm ok with the reverse implied odds. My concern is hitting enough flops, I seem to have greatly overestimated how many times we hit hard.

I wonder how much better we are when we have 65s?

Also, it's worth noting that it doesn't seem we need much bigger stacks to make this a call, if relative stacks are 150bb we might be on to a winner here.

[Viscaro]

I'm also interested to know if these odds above include the long-shot flops, like quads and boats, not that it would make enough difference.

I wonder how much better we are when we have 65s?

Boats and quads are both subsets of flopping trips (either we hit trips with our kicker or trips with the 4th making quads), so yes they are included.

65s is only different in that it flops a straight about twice as often, ~1.3% as opposed to ~0.65% for the 63s. One gappers fyi (64s) are ~0.98%

[Shotglass]

thanks shotglass for crunching the numbers also. I'm also interested to know if these odds above include the long-shot flops, like quads and boats, not that it would make enough difference.

No problem, but no, I didn't include the long-shots.

FWIW: I have played this from the button, both with a limp following multiple limpers and for an open raise trying to steal...but I'll drop it like a shitty diaper when I miss the flop and am facing aggression.