am i rlly a feesh? 63s on btn vs supertight UTG range

[OngBonga]

[x] his range is QQ+
[ ] we need to win every time we hit the flop
[x] we stack him every time he has an overpair

[spoonitnow]

[x] his range is QQ+
[ ] we need to win every time we hit the flop
[x] we stack him every time he has an overpair

lol nevermind, gl

[OngBonga]

lol nevermind, gl

Seriosuly, can't you see this guy is a prime target for easy stacking on the flop? It's not even like it's close, I'm making $7+ over 50 hands based on my maths, so I got plenty of room for error. This guy is likely stacking off on most flops, he demonstrates this in the posted hand. My case for calling is entirely dependant on us hitting enough flops though, but unfortunately I don't know how to calculate the probability we hit with 2pr+. I need one in fifteen flops or my case falls apart, it becomes too close. I also need this guy to stack off with his overpairs, I think he's doing this always.

[Shotglass]

Seriosuly, can't you see this guy is a prime target for easy stacking on the flop? It's not even like it's close, I'm making $7+ over 50 hands based on my maths, so I got plenty of room for error. This guy is likely stacking off on most flops, he demonstrates this in the posted hand. My case for calling is entirely dependant on us hitting enough flops though, but unfortunately I don't know how to calculate the probability we hit with 2pr+. I need one in fifteen flops or my case falls apart, it becomes too close. I also need this guy to stack off with his overpairs, I think he's doing this always.

The probablility of flopping a flush 118/1, FD is 8.4/1 and completing by river is 15/1. Flopping trips is 73/1.

The 15/1 that you were using could be from the completing by the river, but don't forget about the 8.4/1 against getting the FD in the first place.