am i rlly a feesh? 63s on btn vs supertight UTG range

ok UTG is like a hypernit , opened like 4% over 400 hands , MP is passive callstation, i decided to call behind on btn. i got berated in chat lulz for calling btn with 63s here and it seems like there are some spr issues here. i'm not too math orientated but i'd like some chit chatter on this one. obv better and higher suited connectors are way easier to play postflop and have more value, i knew that! just wanna know in detail , what makes this an awfull play.

start the flamings!
thnx

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($1.88)
Hero (Button) ($5.37)
SB ($7)
BB ($5)
UTG ($5.55)
MP ($7.87)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, 3
UTG bets $0.20, MP calls $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.67) 2, 3, 3 (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.40, UTG raises $1.40, 1 fold, Hero raises $2.75, UTG raises $3.95 (All-In), Hero calls $2.02 (All-In)

Turn: ($11.01) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($11.01) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $11.01

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($1.88)
Hero (Button) ($5.37)
SB ($7)
BB ($5)
UTG ($5.55)
MP ($7.87)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, 3
UTG bets $0.20, MP calls $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.67) 2, 3, 3 (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.40, UTG raises to $1.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.15, UTG raises to $5.35 (All-In), Hero calls $2.02 (All-In)

Turn: ($11.01) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($11.01) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $11.01 | Rake: $0.54

Fold pre

Oh and yes it's very possible!

I like your river sizing

hint: 6 and 3 are not connected

If you want to learn to play gappers here is the master!

YouTube - Water Boat Online Poker Strategy (#22): 5 Gappers and Beyond

You need steal equity and implied odds to play these longshot hands. Here, there's no real chance to steal because it's multi-way and UTG has a super strong range. Of course, you have great implied odds for those same reasons.

However, two things. One, when you make a flush it'll only be 6-high, and you won't always be good. Two, you have a 2-gapper, which is much much less likely to make a straight than a connector. So, the implied odds are there, but your chances of taking advantage of that with this hand are rather slim.

Postflop is good.

i would love if UTG was holding QQ

play it in BB only if ck to you and you ck back pre... else its a god damn fold. you just hit damn lucky here but still stacking him off is not +EV .

First of all thanks couriermike for reposting the hand so I could read it.

Now, I don't hate the pre flop call at all. UTG is a super-nit, MP is a station, this means implied odds are immense. We can be fairly certain UTG has QQ+ the vast majority of the time here, so we can look for the miracle flop and stack off when we hit, or muck when we miss. I'm not entirely sure what the odds are of hitting 2pair+ with 63s are, but I'd guess around 1 in 10, meaning we need to win at least $2 on average when we have the best hand to break even. We've got over $10 in potential winnings, and over $5 from the UTG raiser who likely has a big pair and is stacking off easily. We're easily getting the required implied odds to see a flop here. The only thing I would worry about is a squeeze from the blinds, but hopefully they are aware of the UTG raise and how tight he is. Call and ejaculate over one in ten flops.

Poker Odds, Poker Probabilities, Common Flop Odds & Charts

flop 2pairs -2%

flop trips -1,3%

so its not +EV

Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13

If you want to learn to play gappers here is the master!

HAHAHAHAHA this guy can't be serious ...

Bc UTG is a hyper nit his range is very narrow so your implied odds are very good. Your calling $0.20 to win $5.55 so your getting better than 25:1.
Now you have to think about how often you hit a monster i.e. straights/draws, flush/draws, 2 pair etc. If its better than 25:1 its a call. I highly doubt you have 25:1 of hitting the nuts. Because UTG is an uber nit high pp are a big part of his range, so your 2 pair are easily counterfeited, as is your flush draw.
Easy fold pre. Played fine post.
If i was UTG i would sigh and lol.

Raz, we don't need 2pair or trips, we've got flush and straight too. I'm not worried about losing to a bigger flush, villain is likely to have pair, not a suited hand, though AKs is in his range. The reverse implied odds are not massive, the most likely way we're paying him off is if we hit 2pair on the flop and the board pairs on the turn and river. It's not going to happen often enough to counter the huge positive implied odds we have.

With the relative stack sizes, we can get away with stacking off and winning just once in twenty and still make money. We're hitting more than 1 in 20 flops with 2pr+.

Originally Posted by Openside

I highly doubt you have 25:1 of hitting the nuts

I agree with Onga. His range is easily QQ+ and we have huge implied odds. Onga u convinced me we r getting better than ~25:1.

If i was UTG i would still punch lady luck in the f'n tit.

look at the link:

to hit a FD on flop its 10% and the you hit a flush 30% of time so you have total around 3-5% with flush

a OESD on flop its 5% and then hit straight in about 30% again total arounf 1-2%... so were are the odds you are talking about? this odds come from our forum, so if they are wrong so os my math... but anyway you dont have better odds then 25:1 to call on that.

Poker Odds, Poker Probabilities, Common Flop Odds & Charts

If I think villain is always stacking off with AA, and always stacking off with QQ/KK when there's no overcard, then I call this. I tend to find super-nits who play AKs QQ+ and nothing else, they play their big pairs Blitzkreig style, it's where they think the money is so they get it in as fast as possible. They're prime targets for calling junk-like suited crap against. I reckon we're stacking off with villain one in ten flops. Say we lose this race once in five times, reasonable if we're moving on a flop of 236, let's look at the maths...

First of all, let's forget the MP station as it just complicates things, we'll come back to him in a minute.

We play this hand 50 times HU with UTG raiser. I'm assuming we hit 2pr+ 1 in 10 times, please someone correct me if this estimate is inaccurate.

We miss 45 flops, and fold each time for a total cost of $0.20 x 45, or $9
We hit five flops and stack off, winning four of the races.
(4 x $5.37) - (1 x $5.37) = 3 x $5.37, or $16.11, a net profit of $7.11 over 50 hands.

Bear in mind that sometimes in this sample we also flop draws, and can usually peel off a reasonable size flop bet based on two streets of implied odds if we hit the turn, so we're actually going to win a little more than this. Also, this maths assumes we hit one in ten flops with 2pr+, and have 80% all-in equity on average when we do. We actually have around 75% equity with 63s against AA one a 236 flop, but over 90% on this flop of 233, so again my numbers are being conservative.

This call is easily +ev.

Oh, and MP... he does complicate things, but if he's a station then it should be safe to assume that his presence is helping our ev, that is he pays more into the pot chasing draws and calling pairs than he takes out when he hits bigger flops than we do. I'm not entirely sure about this, I would be more worried if MP was a TAG.

i just gave you link that you hit 2pair+ 1:50... why dont you look at it? its the link from FTR with flop odds. you have 50:1 to hit and you have 25:1 to his stack... where the hell is +EV?

I took the link first time and I think you are misinterpreting the information. We have way better than 50:1 on hitting a better hand than one pair. Let's put it another way, according to stove we have 23% all-in equity against AA, this would not be nearly this high if we were hitting just one in fifty flops.

that stove equity its all the way to river, not on flop. so thinking that stove on flop its wrong. anyway, 63s aint a playing hand, i think greater players then us would put it somewhere to play it. every great player says that is a dump pre.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I took the link first time and I think you are misinterpreting the information. We have way better than 50:1 on hitting a better hand than one pair. Let's put it another way, according to stove we have 23% all-in equity against AA, this would not be nearly this high if we were hitting just one in fifty flops.

Though that is true, we're never ever calling bets to see the turn and /or the river unless we've hit bigger than just a pair on the flop.

There is also going to be a cost to us in the overall calculation of our failed draws, where we have paid to see them, and of course where we stack off to a higher flush, not just to AKs, also to 4flush boards after our money has already gone in. I would prefer a deeper stack personally for the play, but 26 isn't terrible either.

So I'm not hating the play, since as you say we can narrow down villain's range so well that he's almost playing the cards face up from the off, and the payoff isn't just in the hand we win, but also the fact that we should get a benefit here in future hands since our nit and possibly the whole table is more likely to pay us off on our big hands too if our range is perceived as much looser than it is. Shania and all that.

Edit - [Sorry, some of those points have already been dealt with by you further up. This thread has at least got the imagination (and posters) going]

Raz, you're missing my point. If we have flop equity of 2%, then we're not going to multiply this equity ten-fold by seeing to the river.

Norg, you're correct, I'm not quoting all-in equity to suggest we chase to river, I'm merely pointing out that our chances of hitting the flop must be better than 2% based on our all-in equity of 23%. I think we have better than 10% flop equity, which means we're getting insnaely great implied odds.

Yes, sometimes we lose when we take the lead on the flop, I have accounted for this happening 1 in 5 times in my maths above, and we're still over $7 up over 50 hands.

The times we chase flush draws, well that's a case of chasing at the correct price, isn't it? So long as we're making +ev moves if we continue, it's no problem.

Very nice link Harley. To op, I would like your play alot better if you have a 5+ gapper. You only have a 3 gapper (subract 3 from 6).
On a serious note do you think you get his stack every time you flop 2p+. You realize you are going to flop more draws than made hands as well?

I've actually thought about this hand a lot as it seemed like most ppl were disagreeing with me as far as fold pre. All the comments about implied equity and how nitty this villain is etc. Then I said seriously fuck all that. Your only going to get these dream flops on in a kazilion and your going to loosing all the other times, not to mention when somebody shows up with Q3 and now how often does it really happen? So nothing will convince me it's worth wasting your money period. Otherwise why don't we post dead every time we sit down at a table. After all we could pick up AA on that hand at least one in a Kazilion right. Well open up your data base and see how much money goes down the shitter in the sb for example it aint worth it period!

This is a fold pre. I would also be more likely to play this hand vs someone with 10/10 stats with 30% cbet. The only way you can play this hand profitable if you can out play him post flop.

This is sort of why when you call with 78s on the BU you don't do it to hit dream flops you do it because it gives you great boards to put pressure on nits who c/f too often.

All the comments about implied equity and how nitty this villain is etc. Then I said seriously fuck all that. Your only going to get these dream flops on in a kazilion and your going to loosing all the other times

+1.....

I can think of better things to dump down the shitter than $$$ with 63s.

Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13

I've actually thought about this hand a lot as it seemed like most ppl were disagreeing with me as far as fold pre. All the comments about implied equity and how nitty this villain is etc. Then I said seriously fuck all that. Your only going to get these dream flops on in a kazilion and your going to loosing all the other times, not to mention when somebody shows up with Q3 and now how often does it really happen? So nothing will convince me it's worth wasting your money period. Otherwise why don't we post dead every time we sit down at a table. After all we could pick up AA on that hand at least one in a Kazilion right. Well open up your data base and see how much money goes down the shitter in the sb for example it aint worth it period!

some people seem to consider it to be ev+ apparently , i have my doubts hence why i posted. though at a cashtable taking 'slightly' ev- spots can be good for future pots vs villain. looking at the discussion i have my doubts whether it's hugely ev- , slightly ev-, slightly ev+, moderately ev+ or in between lol. curious where this is going

I consider calling to be +ev, and I posted maths to back up my claim.

Harley thinks we hit one in a kazillion flops, I think we hit somewhere between one in ten and one in twelve. Let's just be clear, I'm not blindly calling cute hands out of boredom, I'm calling because (a) UTG, who's raising 4% of hands over decent sample, has raised, meaning a range of fucking AA only, (b) station has tagged along, (c) button, (d) implied odds are MASSIVE, (e) I'm awesome post-flop, (f) Shania whynot? (g) and yes, also I want to piss off the idiot who's scared to play poker, I will enjoy reading his rant in the chat bar.

Honestly, it seems a few of you here don't like money. Look at his stack! It's all yours for 20c!!! The thing is, if someone is raising AA only, then we probably should call any two cards if the stacks are large enough, the raise is small enough, and we can be certain he stacks off on the flop. That's his fault for being such a pussy and being so easy to exploit. If he was capable of raising 77 in this spot, then I'm not calling 63s because he's not stacking off on as many flops.

If people want to fold this, I dunno, play fucking limit or buy in with a short stack so your implied odds don't frighten you. Fucking easy call this is, Jesus. Someone show me in maths that we hit less than one in fifteen flops and I will change my tune.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ter-89612.html

from our forum again showing you flop 2pair+ 1:50 times.... so there are no implied to call 63. pls stop being so set on the idea cause this time its wrong Ong.

http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/art15.pdf

Odds of 2 players flopping 2 pair. : Texas Hold'em Probabilities and Poker Odds

Probability question: Flopping two pair or better - Poker Theory - General Poker Theory Forum


i can give you some more links

lol 63s

The funny thing is, I've already found these sites while posting in this thread, and none of them answer my question.

We flop 2pair 2% of the time, not 2pr+. If the probability of flopping 2pair is 1 in 50, then the probability of flopping 2pair+ is going to be bettter than 1 in 50.

Let's just make one thing clear... 2pair and 2pair+ are not the same thing. 2pair+ includes trips, straights, flushes etc. I have not been able to find anywhere a site that tells me the probability of flopping 2pair+, maybe I'm just shit with goggle. (edit haha google)

These links do not answer my question, and your insistence that we have 50:1 shows me that you don't understand these links either.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

lol 63s

Spoon, what's the probability here that we flop 2pair or better? Better than one in fifteen?

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Spoon, what's the probability here that we flop 2pair or better? Better than one in fifteen?

<@spoonitnow> i like how people are all
<@spoonitnow> omfg
<@spoonitnow> every time you hit a flop
<@spoonitnow> you're going to stack this guy

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

<@spoonitnow> i like how people are all
<@spoonitnow> omfg
<@spoonitnow> every time you hit a flop
<@spoonitnow> you're going to stack this guy

Yeah I'm making assumptions that someone who raises 4% of hands is gonna be the kind of person who's like "omfg I got aces yesyesyes I can finally GET MONEY IN YEAHAHAHAHAHA". Is this a bad assumption to make? Can he really fold AA at the flop after waiting so long for it? Convince me. And please, how the fuck do I work out this probability because it's pretty important for my case, if we're hitting one in fifteen flops or more, then I'm happy to call this against this nit all day long.

flop trips is higher then 1:50, like 1:70, flop a flush, straight is 1:100 and so on... you are wrong Ong this time. leave it, no math in the world will sustain playing 63s

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Yeah I'm making assumptions that someone who raises 4% of hands is gonna be the kind of person who's like "omfg I got aces yesyesyes I can finally GET MONEY IN YEAHAHAHAHAHA". Is this a bad assumption to make? Can he really fold AA at the flop after waiting so long for it? Convince me. And please, how the fuck do I work out this probability because it's pretty important for my case, if we're hitting one in fifteen flops or more, then I'm happy to call this against this nit all day long.

[ ] his range is AA
[ ] we win every time we hit the flop
[ ] we stack him every time we win the pot

[x] his range is QQ+
[ ] we need to win every time we hit the flop
[x] we stack him every time he has an overpair

Originally Posted by OngBonga

[x] his range is QQ+
[ ] we need to win every time we hit the flop
[x] we stack him every time he has an overpair

lol nevermind, gl

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

lol nevermind, gl

Seriosuly, can't you see this guy is a prime target for easy stacking on the flop? It's not even like it's close, I'm making $7+ over 50 hands based on my maths, so I got plenty of room for error. This guy is likely stacking off on most flops, he demonstrates this in the posted hand. My case for calling is entirely dependant on us hitting enough flops though, but unfortunately I don't know how to calculate the probability we hit with 2pr+. I need one in fifteen flops or my case falls apart, it becomes too close. I also need this guy to stack off with his overpairs, I think he's doing this always.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Seriosuly, can't you see this guy is a prime target for easy stacking on the flop? It's not even like it's close, I'm making $7+ over 50 hands based on my maths, so I got plenty of room for error. This guy is likely stacking off on most flops, he demonstrates this in the posted hand. My case for calling is entirely dependant on us hitting enough flops though, but unfortunately I don't know how to calculate the probability we hit with 2pr+. I need one in fifteen flops or my case falls apart, it becomes too close. I also need this guy to stack off with his overpairs, I think he's doing this always.

The probablility of flopping a flush 118/1, FD is 8.4/1 and completing by river is 15/1. Flopping trips is 73/1.

The 15/1 that you were using could be from the completing by the river, but don't forget about the 8.4/1 against getting the FD in the first place.

Probability of flopping trips is blah, probability of flopping 2pr is blah, I would like to know the probability of flopping ANY hand that beats a pair of aces, not just one particular hand. I don't know how to crunch these numbers together, it doesn't seem like anyone knows.

I'm gonna use stove to estimate. According to stove, we have 17.7% equity with 22 against AA. Now we know we have flop equity of around 10%, which is over half of the overall all-in equity. So, 63s has 19.2% all-in equity against AA, so the flop equity should be around 11-12%. I'm only asking for 7%.

I'm happy with the reverse implied odds so long as I'm hitting one in fifteen flops or more. We can expect to lose around one in five times when we move with 2pr+ on the flop and still show a decent profit. A "hit flop" for me is 2pr, trips, straight, flush, boat, quads or sf, and perhaps an oesd+fd, which we're 54% against unless he hit set. There are other interesting flops, but I'm only going to continue with a draw if the price is right, so while I don't want to count draws in the flops I need to hit, the ones I do chase will be profitable.

Anyway, until I know how many flops I hit I can't be bothered with this one anymore. Right now I'm convinced calling is easily +ev if we expect him to stack off on the flop with overpairs. Hitting less than one in fifteen flops will convince me otherwise.

Here’s a URL (Probabilities) that’ll help you get the formulas to work it out on your own, but (now that my hangover’s gone) here goes (if I screw up on the math somewhere then please correct me):
The probability of flopping a flush 118/1, FD is 8.4/1 and completing by river is 15/1. Flopping trips is 73/1; and two pair (using both of your hole cards) is 49/1. I left out the straight because I had difficulty finding odds of flopping a straight or SD and completing.

So, we’ve got flopping a flush or 2 pr or trips or completing a flush given that a FD flops, or:

1/49 + 1/73 + 1/118 + ((1/15)/ (1/8.4)) = X

1/49 + 1/73 = 73/3577 + 49/3577 = 122/3577 = 1/29.32

1/29.32 + 1/118 = 118/3459.76 + 29.32/3459.76 = 147.32/3459.76 = 1/23.48

1/23.48 + ((1/15)/ (1/8.4)) = 1/23.48 + ((8.4/126)/ (15/126)) = 1/23.48 + 8.4/15 = 15/352.2 + 197.23/352.2 = 212.23/352.2 = 1/1.66

Unless I did something wrong the probability is 1.66 to 1 against one of the above things happening but you’ve also got to compare it to the probability of his AA improving by the river:
4.2 to 1 against making a set or better by the river; 5/1 that a pr flops; that the board pairs by the river about 2/1. I’d imagine that his odds greatly reduce your odds of winning.

1/4.2 + 1/5 + 1/2

1/4.2 + 1/5 = 5/21 + 4.2/21 = 9.2/21 = 1/2.28

1/2.28 + 1/2 = 2/4.56 + 2.28/4.56 = 4.28/4.56 = 1/1.06 or basically 1.06 to 1 against his AA improving by the river.

It looks to me like he has a greater chance of improving, which would imply that in the long run playing 63 is a losing proposition.

If I did screw up the math somewhere would someone please correct it? It’s been a really long time since I’ve done probability statements.

Flop 2 pair = 2.02%
Flop trips = 1.35%
Flop straight with 2 gapper = 0.65%
Flop a flush = 0.84%
Total = 4.86%
Or ~20:1.

Originally Posted by Viscaro

Flop 2 pair = 2.02%
Flop trips = 1.35%
Flop straight with 2 gapper = 0.65%
Flop a flush = 0.84%
Total = 4.86%
Or ~20:1.

That's a helluva lot easier than the BS that I came up with, but you left out the draws that he'd flop and the % of completion of those draws.

Originally Posted by Shotglass

That's a helluva lot easier than the BS that I came up with, but you left out the draws that he'd flop and the % of completion of those draws.

We shouldn't really be looking to hit a draw, the whole point is this guy is stacking off a whole bunch so we wont have any FE. Why would we want to get it in with ~30%?

It's about 8% to flop an OESD, ~11% to flop a 4 flush. Some overlap between the two obv.

OngBonga

Counter the point that even when we flop two pair vs a range of QQ+ we are not a great favorite to win. I don't have flopzilla to check the exact odds flopping two pair plus. But we need to account for flops 63A, where he has AA or has QQ-KK and doesn't stack off. So implied odds are not as simple as you make it out to be.

!luck

Originally Posted by Viscaro

Flop 2 pair = 2.02%
Flop trips = 1.35%
Flop straight with 2 gapper = 0.65%
Flop a flush = 0.84%
Total = 4.86%
Or ~20:1.

Wow, that's not good. Thanks for this, and thanks shotglass for crunching the numbers also. The only draw I'm interested in is one which gives us >50% equity, ie an open-ended straight draw + flush draw (pair is a bonus). I'm happy to get it in in that event. I'm also interested to know if these odds above include the long-shot flops, like quads and boats, not that it would make enough difference. I think with 20:1 flop odds, it's pretty fucking close. I can still imagine calling is slightly +ev due to the station being in the pot, our implied odds are pretty high with him in too, but I can't see we stack both off in our favour very often at all. But it's not the "easy fucking call" I was on about a few posts ago, I thought we were hitting like twice as many flops hard enough. I guess my time hasn't been wasted because I now know what my flop odds are for 2-gappers to take on aces.

Luck, so long as we only lose one in five times when we get it in on the flop, I'm ok with the reverse implied odds. My concern is hitting enough flops, I seem to have greatly overestimated how many times we hit hard.

I wonder how much better we are when we have 65s?

Also, it's worth noting that it doesn't seem we need much bigger stacks to make this a call, if relative stacks are 150bb we might be on to a winner here.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm also interested to know if these odds above include the long-shot flops, like quads and boats, not that it would make enough difference.

I wonder how much better we are when we have 65s?

Boats and quads are both subsets of flopping trips (either we hit trips with our kicker or trips with the 4th making quads), so yes they are included.

65s is only different in that it flops a straight about twice as often, ~1.3% as opposed to ~0.65% for the 63s. One gappers fyi (64s) are ~0.98%

Originally Posted by OngBonga

thanks shotglass for crunching the numbers also. I'm also interested to know if these odds above include the long-shot flops, like quads and boats, not that it would make enough difference.

No problem, but no, I didn't include the long-shots.

FWIW: I have played this from the button, both with a limp following multiple limpers and for an open raise trying to steal...but I'll drop it like a shitty diaper when I miss the flop and am facing aggression.

Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13

If you want to learn to play gappers here is the master!

YouTube - Water Boat Online Poker Strategy (#22): 5 Gappers and Beyond

I just watched this. Holy CRAP! what a Tard! I gotta find this guy on the tables.
Oh,yeah if you watch the screenshots showing his google search it pretty much explains why his GF was with his bro on the poker table. ROFLMFAO...HAHAHAHAHAHA

That was comedy. I think I laughed most at his note taking of the girl with KQ. And his betting was awesome; 50 on the flop, 51 on the turn, 52 on the river, that's value.

I suspect he hacked into his brother's account and blew his bankroll.