(I'
m going to assume the BB folds here, since no info is given about his
range. If you
flat-
call he may come along, and he may show up with a
monster in any scenario, but I can't work these out precisely...)
Fold
EV = 0
3bet 30x
He has 6
combos each of 66-
QQ in his
range, 3 each of
AA-
KK (since you hold blockers) and 9 of AK, for 57 total hands, of which 6
call. When called we only have 18.5%
equity in a 61BB pot of which we pay 29.5BB. When he folds we win 5.5BB.
EV = 51/57 x 5.5 + 6/57 (-29.5 + 0.185 x 61) = 3.0BB
(Note we're exploiting his
fold-to-3bet tendency, shoving over is +EV with zero
equity because he folds so much. We should choose to do this with e.g. 87s instead of AKo because it has better
equity when called).
edit: This isn't true, we have more
fold equity with AK because we have blockers to his
calling range. Thanks spoon!
3bet 10x
He has the same 57 hands, but this time 21 of them
shove. Our
equity against his shoving
range is 38.8%. We have to
call 20BB to win a total pot of 61BB so we only need 32.7%
equity, this is a
call. So we have 38.8%
equity in a 61BB pot of which we pay 29.5BB, and when he folds we again win 5.5BB.
EV = 36/57 x 5.5 + 21/57 (-29.5 + 0.388 x 61) = 1.33BB.
(This isn't great, he doesn't
fold nearly so much, and we end up still
behind his wider
stack-off range but having to
call because of pot-odds).
Call
This is obviously fuzzy,
it depends on (your opponent's perception of) your
calling range, and both players' postflop tendencies.
But the
implied odds are likely to be in his favour - if he holds a medium
pocket pair he's probably going to be
able to get away when an A or K hits. Whereas if you hit and he gets a
set or
AA, you could lose your
stack. You're
out of position and he has this
initiative.
Overall I suspect you'll struggle to get 'your half' of the pot
back, making calling -EV.
So best
option seems to be 3-bet shoving, and in fact doing it with
ATC until EP or BB adjust.