Blind Stealing 102: "Blind Defense"

Introduction

About a year and a half ago I wrote a post in the Full Ring forum titled Blind Stealing 101. If you haven't read the OP of that post, go do so now then come back to this. In that post, I described how blind stealing against tight opponents is often profitable with any two cards because of their fold frequency. At the time, blind defense topics weren't as popular as they are now, so a little more knowledge is needed to run over the nit regulars. I'm going to hit the highlights.

The Premise

Most players are positionally aware preflop now to some extent. At the very least, most of them open more hands in late position than they do in early position. To drive the point home, a lot of nit regulars at full ring (I'm talking super nit like 10/8) still have an attempt to steal over 25%. Most regulars have an attempt to steal between 30% and 50%. This is the key tendency that we are going to adjust to.

Why I Refer To "Blind Defense" In Quotes

You're not being attacked, there is no fort, and there is no defense. Your opponents have a weak range, and you're responding to it. Don't let the terms like "stealing" and "defending the blinds" get too stuck in your head to the point that they generate an emotional response.

Calling

Suppose someone opens 30% of hands to 3x in the button and the SB folds and you're in the BB with ATs. While you are out of position, you are way ahead of his range in terms of equity and playability, so in most cases you should call and see a flop. Now you get to try to play against your opponent's tendencies with ideas like donk betting the flop and check/raising and whatnot. If you hit an Ace and your opponent is aggressive, it's fine to check/call since you know he's going to be c-betting almost every A-high flop with his entire range.

Most HUDs now have stats that have to do with folding to a donk bet on the flop or folding to a flop check/raise. Using these types of stats in addition to notes and reads on your opponents will guide your play a bit and let you get more value out of these spots.

3-Bet Bluffing

Suppose someone opens 30% of hands to 3x in the button and the SB folds and you're in the BB with 53s or something equally shitty and 3-bet to 10x. At this point you're betting 9bb to win 4.5bb so if he folds more than 2/3 of the time you're profitable even if you check/fold every time you see a flop. For this not to be profitable, he would have to be continuing with more than 1/3 of his 30% of hands he opens, or more than 10% of hands. To give you an idea of how many hands that is (and why it's unlikely), keep in mind that {22+, AJ+, KQ} is 10.7% of starting hands.

For some examples of how blockers can change our opponent's fold frequency for 3-bet bluffs, see the last part of this post. Most HUDs now have a stat that shows how often someone has folded a steal attempt to a 3-bet. This is worth having on a popup.

For a more detailed discussion, including finding near-optimal ranges, see this post based on Muzzard's notes from a coaching session with me.

3-Betting For Value

If some people are folding too much to a 3-bet after they open in late position, then it follows that some people aren't going to fold very much at all. This is when you open up your value range with hands like AQ, AJ, TT, and so on. Pay attention to how your opponents play after a steal when facing 3-bets and take notes. It's just as much of a gold mine as people folding their blinds 95% was 18 months ago.

A Note On "Shania"

When people start seeing you 3-bet bluff, your 3-bets for value will start making more money, which is even more reason to do it even if you think it will only be break even in a vacuum. Go Think about Shania if you don't understand.

Dealing With 4-Bet Bluffs And Beyond

If you study 3-bet bluffs a bit, you'll discover that 4-bet bluffs and 5-bet bluffs work on most of the same principles.

nice post spoon ... beginner's digest? *pokes xianti*

anyways, maybe its just me alone on this thought but i'm really not a fan of over defending blinds. occassionally i'll throw in a 3bet with a SC against a 35+ att to steal high fold to 3bet just to balance my 3bet out of the blinds range a bit. but remember that when we defend our blinds light:

1) we're playing with a weaker range
2) we're playing OOP

we're playing a 100 BB cash game not a tournament, so I'd much rather defend by button by 3betting light than defend my blinds.

Originally Posted by AFchung

nice post spoon ... beginner's digest? *pokes xianti*

anyways, maybe its just me alone on this thought but i'm really not a fan of over defending blinds. occassionally i'll throw in a 3bet with a SC against a 35+ att to steal high fold to 3bet just to balance my 3bet out of the blinds range a bit. but remember that when we defend our blinds light:

1) we're playing with a weaker range
2) we're playing OOP

we're playing a 100 BB cash game not a tournament, so I'd much rather defend by button by 3betting light than defend my blinds.

1. This is almost completely irrelevant. Increasing the size of a range does not necessarily decrease the value of the range as a whole. Moreover, adding a -EV hand to our range does not necessarily decrease the value of a range as a whole.

2. Only when we see a flop, which makes this at least partially irrelevant.

BALLIN!! i'm sure i'll come back to this thread with questions after i have time to think about it/have a session or two.

i'm most likely going to run into questions/troubles regarding restealing against non-regs where the affect on ranges is far less predictable (it seems like even 30/8's often have 30% ATS these days)

I run about 12/9 but still have a steal % of around 30. But this post is about defending your blinds and Spoon pretty much nailed it.

Originally Posted by Nutty McMutt

I run about 12/9 but still have a steal % of around 30. But this post is about like 12 different things that help create a better understand of blind stealing.

FYP

Pfftt lol. Thanks.

Originally Posted by Nutty McMutt

Pfftt lol. Thanks.

I always try to present things in a way that they link well with other topics.

still doesn't tell us what hands we should be defending our blinds with
for example, you can plug in 30% into pokerstove and A9o and we'll see we're 52% with A9o
but should we defend our blinds?
MAYBE

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Introduction

The Premise

Most players are positionally aware preflop now to some extent. At the very least, most of them open more hands in late position than they do in early position. To drive the point home, a lot of nit regulars at full ring (I'm talking super nit like 10/8) still have an attempt to steal over 25%. Most regulars have an attempt to steal between 30% and 50%. This is the key tendency that we are going to adjust to.

By "positionally aware preflop now" do you mean now at 100nl? What I mean is, at 10nl when regs aren't positionally aware, they haven't been for some time, and still aren't I would assume, would you agree?

The "to some extent" extends down to 10NL imo. Players know to open more hands in LP than in EP...and, "to some extent," that is positionally aware.

So, yes, players are still, to a smaller degree, positionally aware in 10NL.

Originally Posted by iopq

still doesn't tell us what hands we should be defending our blinds with
for example, you can plug in 30% into pokerstove and A9o and we'll see we're 52% with A9o
but should we defend our blinds?
MAYBE

I see what you're getting at but let's be real here. We can't just say defend with 30%. We still have to put villain on a range depending on how frequent their ATS% is. If it's hovering over 50%, I'll be more inclined to 3bet with ATC "if" he'll lay it down. If the ATS% is 25-30% (about what it should be for any positionally aware player), I'll be a little more cautious with what I defend with and what I 3bet with. And obviously where the ATS% is low, it's probably not a steal attempt, so don't defend without a great hand. This is common sense though really.

There are quite a bit of players who are positionally aware at 10nl, but that doesn't mean they're any good post-flop.

my autodefend range is like 98s+, suited broadways, suited aces, 66+, like QJo+ KJo+ ATo+

Originally Posted by BooG690

The "to some extent" extends down to 10NL imo. Players know to open more hands in LP than in EP...and, "to some extent," that is positionally aware.

So, yes, players are still, to a smaller degree, positionally aware in 10NL.

I agree, the blanket statement was incorrect. I should have probably quoted "Most players" As I don't think most players are, but yeah, I guess most regs are at least somewhat positionally aware. I also wanted to point out that new players should be sooo glad to have found a place like this with players like Spoon and Renton making the kind of posts they do.

Originally Posted by iopq

still doesn't tell us what hands we should be defending our blinds with

You're exactly right, and it's done that way on purpose.

Originally Posted by wellrounded08

By "positionally aware preflop now" do you mean now at 100nl? What I mean is, at 10nl when regs aren't positionally aware, they haven't been for some time, and still aren't I would assume, would you agree?

I just mean more people are opening more hands in LP than EP. If their attempt to steal is higher than their PFR, this is the case.

Originally Posted by Renton

my autodefend range is like 98s+, suited broadways, suited aces, 66+, like QJo+ KJo+ ATo+

Pretty much.

some of the lower suited aces and weaker offsuit hands in that range i don't mind folding or 3betting, especially vs tighter openers

Originally Posted by Renton

some of the lower suited aces and weaker offsuit hands in that range i don't mind folding or 3betting, especially vs tighter openers

I feel like I might be 3-betting too much [of the typical continuing range, like what you described above] against people who have like a fold steal to 3-bet of 92% over 5000 hands or something crazy like that, but it's so profitable and I don't think I can get that much profit calling (especially out of position).

Something to consider is whether you make more profit from 3betting or just calling. Dont fall into the mistake of just doing one or the other robotically. Especially with the aid of HUD stats often for specific hands one is better than the other. Obviously your own hand should influence this decision a lot. Pay attention to their postflop play as well as their preflop tendencies.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by Renton

some of the lower suited aces and weaker offsuit hands in that range i don't mind folding or 3betting, especially vs tighter openers

I feel like I might be 3-betting too much [of the typical continuing range, like what you described above] against people who have like a fold steal to 3-bet of 92% over 5000 hands or something crazy like that, but it's so profitable and I don't think I can get that much profit calling (especially out of position).

yes but calling is still better if you can get any profit at all, assuming your hand with nonzero calling value has similar 3bet value to a hand like 72o (extreme obv) with no calling value. abcd yada yada.

Originally Posted by Renton

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by Renton

some of the lower suited aces and weaker offsuit hands in that range i don't mind folding or 3betting, especially vs tighter openers

I feel like I might be 3-betting too much [of the typical continuing range, like what you described above] against people who have like a fold steal to 3-bet of 92% over 5000 hands or something crazy like that, but it's so profitable and I don't think I can get that much profit calling (especially out of position).

yes but calling is still better if you can get any profit at all, assuming your hand with nonzero calling value has similar 3bet value to a hand like 72o (extreme obv) with no calling value. abcd yada yada.

Yeah that's what I mean.

I have a popup stat that breaks down ATS into CO, BTN and SB. It helps to know if they open up in the CO, too, though this is less typical than those who auto-steal OTB. From what I've seen, someone with an ATS ~ 30% is often opening 45%+ OTB.

Right after the original Blind Stealing 101 post, spoon posted this related thread: Raising Behind Limpers. I've just reread the whole set and will profit (again).

this needs to be put in the beginners digest...bump for those who havent seen it. Its looking like its time for the "so your blind steal has gotten 3b 103" post lol. Thanks again for this spoon, very helpful

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

this needs to be put in the beginners digest...bump for those who havent seen it. Its looking like its time for the "so your blind steal has gotten 3b 103" post lol. Thanks again for this spoon, very helpful

Added. Thanks.

Spoon this is great!! I always thought how profitable stealing IP was, but I never thought about "defending" in the blindsm, I think my fold to steal is something around the 90% mark so I'm going to try and 3b bluff more in the blinds / flat more hands.

Great post spoon.

I would like to add that all of this stuff comes together very nicely if you table select well. Always have nits to your left and lags to your right. Seriously, this is so huge. If you sit down on a fr table and one of the two guys to your left is like 23/18/4.0 with a 3-bet of 6% and a raise steal of 10%+, get the hell outta there next time the bb gets to you. You want people running like 9/7 with a fold to steal of 80%+ and a 1% 3-bet. Short stacks are great candidates to have to your left.

If I find a seat with two nits to my left and two lags to my right with ATS of 30%+ and fold to 3-bet of 70%+, its seriously like viagra.

And by the way, there is no such thing as defending the blinds or stealing blinds.. its all rubbish and will get you in trouble. That stuff as well as all situations in poker boil down to finding +ev spots. Not necessary +ev for that spot, but +ev for your shania as a whole. Being aware of such spots and the totality of their game in a long term perspective is what makes good players great.

can there be a thread on BTN defense now??

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

can there be a thread on BTN defense now??

You mean with the HJ or CO try to steal the button? Its the same.. you do it as a bluff or for value.. the difference is you will profit more due to position so you can play accordingly. If you watch a lot of the high stakes players, you will see them 3-bet a lot more in position than the mid stakes guys.. there is a reason for this (this has been my observation, correct me if I'm wrong)

Originally Posted by Outlaw

You mean with the HJ or CO try to steal the button? Its the same.. you do it as a bluff or for value.. the difference is you will profit more due to position so you can play accordingly. If you watch a lot of the high stakes players, you will see them 3-bet a lot more in position than the mid stakes guys.. there is a reason for this (this has been my observation, correct me if I'm wrong)

Yeah, my post wasn't actually completely serious, i just remember someone telling me that you should be more apt to defend your button than your blinds and I just posted that because seeing blind defense in the thread title brought back that memory