Thanks all for the feedback and discussion. From what I gather the consensus is fold here pre, and if we're in this spot we're checking back the turn for max eV.
So in order of exploit villain, what should our range look like here to continue?
Originally Posted by surviva316
I'll throw out my ideas and hopefully someone will destroy my logic.
Call: Like 77-JJ, AJs-AQs, AQo, KQs because these hands will play well vs. his range postflop and we'll often have the best hand at showdown.
4bet value: QQ+, AKs, AKo because value.
4bet bluff: ??
I'm a bit at a loss ATM where the suited broadways should fit into my range here and what kind of range I should be 4bet bluffing if at all, so I'll have to start where we should always start, villain's range.
Due to our small sample size lets assume that villain's 3b from blinds is 10% rather than 16%.
So he's 3betting pre something like TT+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ (138 combos)
Lets assume he continues to a 4bet with something like JJ+, AQs+, AKo (44 combos)
This gives us roughly 68% fold equity on a 4bet bluff. Say we 3x his raise to $3.
(bet/(bet+pot)) = (2.7/(2.7+1.4)) = 0.66 = 66%
Assuming my logic and math is correct this leaves us with a slightly +eV 4bet bluffing opportunity. Where I'm a bit lost is how often this means we should be 4bet bluffing? I'll do some looking around in the digest see if I can find anything relevant, but for now I'll finish off the rest of my range.
I think that a lot of the suited broadways we can fit into the calling range as they'll flop well a lot of the time and play decently vs. villain's range. Or perhaps we should be folding the bottom of the suited connectors calling the top... maybe vice versa.
Should we be polarizing the 4betting range in this spot? As in 4betting for value like QQ+, AK, then 4betting lower hands like suited connectors, say something like 67s-9Ts, 68s-8Ts?