No theme werewolf gameplay thread

[BankItDrew]

Its ong and keybored for sure.

I'm good with this.

[Keybored]

I would say gg Rilla but it would be a lie. I didn't see outright wolfy behavior from him but I didn't get town love either. I woulda jumped on him if I'd seen the slightest howl. As it is, I stand by my Doobs read. And I'm suspicious of anyone who definitely declares someone a villager. Wolves know, so they make such claims. Villagers are always unsure.

[BankItDrew]

And I'm suspicious of anyone who definitely declares someone a villager. Wolves know, so they make such claims. Villagers are always unsure.

Just like your reasons for lynching baudib, this is so so so wrong.

[Keybored]

I'm good with this.

So, am I wolf for something a dead wolf said or for something I've said? I been hunting all along. Maybe poorly, but actively at least.

[MadMojoMonkey]

The mostly village:
MMM
Gabe - his reads are leading strong villagers to strong decisions
JKDS - he's the only one to offer a sensible take on Keith & Daven
BID - His ww skills are much improved and if he's faking V... damn.
Hoopy - He and Luco made the rilla lynch happen after JKDS showed.
Luco - Same as Hoopy

The not mostly village:
Dhuber
Ong
Keybored

That should answer your question, Keybored.

Personally, I can't help but lean village on Keybored. I wouldn't be surprised either way, though. I'm a sucker for noob-wolf. They play the "I'm new to this game; don't kill me, I'm trying!" card and I always see village cred. Aubrey got me. Savy got me, too.

It's a moot point anyway. Keybored and dweeber can't be trusted to win the end-game for the village.

Ongwolf votes like ongwolf

lynch OngBonga

[OngBonga]

wtf with uber fast night?

Ong, your role in lynching rilla can be summarized like this
a) rilla gets mentioned as wolfy
b) ong votes rilla due to activity reasons
c) surprise, rilla is active. unvote
d) attempt to mislynch jkds.
e) Rilla getting lots of votes and now is in the lead very close to deadline!
f) ong votes rilla

Your role in rilla's death was minimal, at best.

lynch ong

Cute.

Now summarise your contribution to the two lynches so far.

Meanwhile in case anyone has a worse memory than me and actually doesn't remember the rilla lynch, it started by me tearing him apart at the beginning of the day. JKDS would have you believe that I'm a wolf, who, after seeing a buddy die on d1, started d2 by balls out attacking another wolf. He'd then have you believe that I played a minimal role in the rilla wagon while he hi5's the village for a lynch he played no role in himself.

I find it hard to believe that people think I'm wolfier than jkds after the two wolf flips we've have, but somehow jkds and drew are still hanging on to the idea that the situation the wolves currently find themselves in is somehow part of their great masterplan.

I've no idea what drew is playing at. I think he actually thinks I'm a wolf. But JKDS doesn't buy this crap he's selling. He's clearing gabe for involvement in the rilla wagon, while brushing my contribution as minimal. This is sloppy is he's a villager.

lynch JKDS

[OngBonga]

Ongwolf votes like ongwolf

Solid.

[dhubermex]

I see no reason to change from Day #2's stance.

Lynch OngBonga

[dhubermex]

I'm not convinced on Keybored being wolf despite his late switch to me. Seems like he's been consistent and is just going on an incorrect read.

My read for final wolf is Luco.

[dhubermex]

Something to note though

Both Baudib AND Rilla have been trying to lynch Dhuber. BID just pointed out that Keybored randomly switched to him instead of rilla. That is huge, especially since we now know that Dhuber is almost certainly a villager. (Especially given what he said when Baudib could have been modkilled, see one of my last posts).

Yep. And I think Luco is too good of a player to not see this himself and post it... hence my suspicion of him as Ong's last remaining partner.

[BankItDrew]

So, am I wolf for something a dead wolf said or for something I've said? I been hunting all along. Maybe poorly, but actively at least.

You were in my wolfy camp on Day 1 and I mentioned why, then.

MMM - Thanks for the compliment. My justification is that I didn't care before but now I do.

Ong - I truly do think you're a wolf. I think I have a solid read on the way you post whether you are a villager or a wolf. If I'm wrong, I guess it's back to the drawing board for me as far as soulreads go.

I think the best thing you can do right now is do what JKDS did at the end of Day 2: Get your shit together and provide us with as much insight as you possibly can. You mentioned that you were pushing for a rilla lynch at one point, so start there.

[dhubermex]

You were in my wolfy camp on Day 1 and I mentioned why, then.

MMM - Thanks for the compliment. My justification is that I didn't care before but now I do.

Ong - I truly do think you're a wolf. I think I have a solid read on the way you post whether you are a villager or a wolf. If I'm wrong, I guess it's back to the drawing board for me as far as soulreads go.

I think the best thing you can do right now is do what JKDS did at the end of Day 2: Get your shit together and provide us with as much insight as you possibly can. You mentioned that you were pushing for a rilla lynch at one point, so start there.

Sounds reasonable, so I am going to rescind OngBonga to give him a shot at coming up with his reasoning just in case final two wolves are somewhere in the Luco/Keybored/Gabe mix. I'll go back to the lynch if there's no response or if it doesn't convince.

[BankItDrew]

I find it hard to believe that people think I'm wolfier than jkds after the two wolf flips we've have, but somehow jkds and drew are still hanging on to the idea that the situation the wolves currently find themselves in is somehow part of their great master plan.

This is false.

The wolves master plan does not include two dead after two days.

[Luco]

Yep. And I think Luco is too good of a player to not see this himself and post it... hence my suspicion of him as Ong's last remaining partner.

ok firstly I havent even done one single read through this game. not one. second, ive played this game entirely from mobile, third, i pretty much opened yesterday by saying i wasnt convinced you were wolfing and fourth, if you dont want to get lynched today then dont just lay out an opening gambit and disappear like you did yesterday

[Luco]

jkds has the smartest wolf game of anyone in this game. better than keith and ong imo (two very capable wolves ofc). I dont trust him nor do I intend to.

If ong is a wolf then hes a wolf who is inside my head, i agreed with his n1 reads list 100% (my reasoning was different but all my conclusions were the same).

Im not lynching ong, period.

[BankItDrew]

Im not lynching ong, period.

This is an unsettling but possibly informative statement.

You may be right, in that ong is a villager. However, consider the following:

1) If you're a villager, you would not be casting ong in a "strong villager lean" category, with no room to convince you to budge.

2) If you're a wolf and ong is a villager, you would be pleased with having ong lynched.

3) If you're a wolf and ong is a wolf, it makes sense as to why you would make this statement.

[Luco]

mmm regarding gabe, i cant remember a single thing he has said this game so i dont understand your town read on him

[Luco]

This is an unsettling but possibly informative statement.

You may be right, in that ong is a villager. However, consider the following:

1) If you're a villager, you would not be casting ong in a "strong villager lean" category, with no room to convince you to budge.

2) If you're a wolf and ong is a villager, you would be pleased with having ong lynched.

3) If you're a wolf and ong is a wolf, it makes sense as to why you would make this statement.

If this really was #3 it would be epic, but you need to think a bit harder about why I would say this as a villager.

also, why im unlikely to say it as a wolf (regardless of ongs alignment)

[BankItDrew]

The onus is on you to tell me why I'm wrong.

"Think harder" is lazy and not helpful.

[JKDS]

I'll be gone for 2 days. Grant just said "surprise, disneyland!" And who am i to go against the wind?

I stand by my previous posts, and if this inactivity causes me to die, so be it. Just kill ong and keybored next. Though, Luco's responses make me uneasy.

[Luco]

I'll be gone for 2 days. Grant just said "surprise, disneyland!" And who am i to go against the wind?

I stand by my previous posts, and if this inactivity causes me to die, so be it. Just kill ong and keybored next. Though, Luco's responses make me uneasy.

They were supposed to

Have fun man, see you when you get back

[OngBonga]

The wolves master plan does not include two dead after two days.

So why are you concluding that I'm a wolf again?

I've just woke up. I'll do stuff later.

[gabe]

I have a crazy life thing going on so im not posing much but I hope you guys know I'm a villager

Ong is being less good than usual so he's a wolf. Ship it

[OngBonga]

lol MVP for gabe.

Is killing two wolves in two days not good enough?

[OngBonga]

Dhuber: Care to address your vanilla comment? There are no specials this game so there's no need to protect your identity ... unless you're a wolf.

Ong, Keith, anyone...are you really not alarmed at all by Dhuber's vanilla claim? I mean WTF is that.

I'm ok with me/Huber wagons. Keep in mind how tight the villager-wolf ratio is here.

Ok so I found these. baudib is throwing shit at doobs because doobs said he's vanilla.

But check this...

I'm a drunk vanilla. Brb in 24 hrs

Why didn't baudib have anything to say about this? Maybe because he's not looking for reasons for drew to be a wolf?

doober's vanilla comment was obviously not "wolfy" to baudib, it was something he could seize on. This hints more at doober village and drew wolf.

Let's have a closer look at drew because I've kind of just been brushing him off as town misreading me, but his motives usually betray him so let me see if I can figure him out.

#77 claims to be confused

First two pages very quiet

ok #195 is reads list...

baudib he has as villager and is supicious of anyone looking to kill him
me he stays on the fence with then has me as wolf
keith he has a gut suspicion on
rilla avoids commitment, simply saying "who?"
daven - disagrees with his reads regarding me and baudib
finishes this post by slamming a vote on me

Next post he says this...

Also, if you think lynching a good villager angel is better than lynching a bad wolf, you're out of your mind. The village goal is simple: kill the wolves.

Of course there is a bright spot in having a good villager as a powerful angel but it doesn't outweigh the awesomeness that is lynching a wolf.

This blows my mind, how did this get left alone?

Drew is basically in agreement with my position. I'm the one shouting at keith that his theory is dumb. drew agrees with me... and I'm a wolf? Where does this come from? All he's saying is he has a very good read on me without actually explaining it.

#197 he then excuses his low activity

I'm up to the end of page 3, gonna post this to break it up and have me a cuppa.

[OngBonga]

I wonder if wuf leaned towards not modkilling baudib because he was a wolf and it might fuck up his game.

Hmm this doesn't feel wolf on wolf.

Baudib wolf doing a poor job framing his teammate in a good light.

Baudib villager spending time talking about dhub for no good reason.

If I were a wolf, which I'm totally not, I would have probably put a player like rilla in the dead thread just because he seems to be the most AFK player in the game. I dunno, maybe someone else is more AFK than he has been.

This is kinda weird. idk, is this supposed to make it look like drew thinks rilla is a villager? That was the impression I got when I first read this, that it implied rilla as a villager. Was that the intention? To hint later that drew didn't know rilla's role? Seems advanced for drew but then again he's putting more thought into this game than we're used to so idk.

I started going through the game to copy and paste every time he said something along the lines of "I'm a villager" or "That's what's best for us, the village", but I soon realized it would take way too long to make the lolz worth while.

I point the finger at doobs and drew seems a bit friendlier towards me.

Nice pick up.

You're probably right. I like a huber or ong lynch.

Yeah drew is too happy to string up doober. Why would he be willing to guy for the guy I'm building a case on if he thinks I'm a wolf?

Here's what he thinks of a rilla wagon...

I'd rather stay on ong. Luco, come to the dark side.

But then when it's unavoidable he hops on...

1) rilla has been lazy this game

2) JKDS showed a lot of heart and effort just now, more than most wolves would ever make

3) my vote on ong seems to be pointless right now

Therefore, rescind ong lynch rilla

Here's what drew thinks of my rilla vote -

IMO This was a pointless vote as the day was about to end. I'm sticking with my initial read of ong being a wolf and this lame attempt at getting villager points is weak.

So tear rilla apart, drew wants me lynched instead of rilla, then when rilla is obviously the lynch, he hops on board reluctantly, and then moans at me because I was late to the party, even though it should be obvious that I was more than happy for rilla to be lynched.

Come back to this when you see I'm a villager.

JKDS and drew are both playing down the impact I had on the village's thinking regarding rilla. Neither of those two are suggesting I'm trying to be a sick wolf, they're simply trying to have you guys forget that I even wanted the wolves dead.

JKDS and drew are the last two imo.

[OngBonga]

And seeing as noone else is willing to read the thread with wolf flips in mind, let me demonstrate the impact I had on both lynches...

From 50% to 4/12.

From a wolf midset to OH SHIT town mindset.

Got one. Oh look I'm already voting for him.

Ok so let's assume a villager dies today. That means there's 12 left, 4 vs 8. The one villager in the dead thread will protect 4 from 12 unknown people, so a 33% shot at saving. But baudib first said 50%, which shows in his mind he's thinking that the one villager saves 4 people from 8. His 50% is consistent with a wolf not thinking it through clearly enough. I don't see how a villager gets to 50%, but I can see how a wolf does.
I think baudib slipped there with his numbers. He's not thinking like a villager.

baudib





This is fence sitting at its finest. You're contradicting yourself while refusing to take a position on keith. And you finish off by deflecting onto someone else.

Wolfy as fuck.

lynch baudib

Still not overly happy with keith's attack but that can wait.

Yeah I'm with daven.

98% anyway.

lynch baudib

You realise that I've posted many reasons why I think you're a wolf, right? I'm not sponging off daven, I think you're a wolf and daven's attack on you looks even more solid than mine.

You fakeclaimed seer while claiming to have not read the roles. You obviously did read the roles because you know that there's no seer, otherwise you wouldn't fakeclaim it for the lulz. So daven caught you lying.

Good enough for me to put my vote back there.

baudib what's your time zone?

Maybe but I wouldn't want to even factor this into decision making. Trying to outguess the mod is unhelpful and a distraction to what we should be doing.

That said, I think baud is looking very bad here. He's not throwing his toys out of his pram. There's an air of acceptance, which isn't what I'd expect from baudib if he was being mislynched on d1 for the third game running.

He's gone to ground when if he's a villager he'd be bawling like a child.

I like this more than a keith lynch. There's more chance I'm wrong about keith, my case on him pretty much entirely revolves around him not being as stupid as he's coming across to me here. But maybe he is just being stupid. Or maybe I am. baudib, there's tons of reasons why he's a good lynch.

I'm sticking.

There's a loaded question if ever I saw one.

You're either a wolf, or you're not a villager, which is it?

Ok drew.

I've been through the dead thread thing with keith and I haven't got the appetite for another round of stupid... but the latter part... what noobs? I count one. Do you think I'm gonna throw a buddy under the bus to impress one person?

And you suggest that you'd kill rilla if you're a wolf because he's afk... not only does that make very little sense, but rilla being afk is most definitely not something that should get him any villager points in the first place.

lynch rilla

A quiet rilla should be a dead rilla.

Ok that makes sense. I disagree though because I don't think villager rilla would let the village down.

Which is why he's a wolf. Because he's letting the village down by not doing what he does best.

rilla put literally no thought into those three posts above. rilla is not this reactionary as a villager. he's proactive and hunts wolves. Where is the rilla we all love? This is the same rilla I was wolfing with a couple of games back.

I like a rilla lynch a little bit more after seeing this post again.



Yeah the baudib-rilla interactions feel a little awkward to me. He seems to be trying to engage rilla, but not in the sense of trying to figure him out, rather get him involved. Note that I'm putting my vote on him to force him to engage, not asking him how he's feeling.

baudib is a lot happier to shift the focus onto doobs, I think doober looks ok based on his baudib interactions, it's just his voting and fence sitting is shady.

Oh hey rilla's here.

rilla why aren't you hunting?

I am poking and prodding you. And you should know as well as anyone that I can attack in this manner.

You're hunting? You're voting for doober but it doesn't look to me like you've had a look at the dead wolf's posts.



Are you suggesting you're deliberately playing to your wolf meta when villager for balance? Because I'm thinking that needs to be put to the test.

K that's pretty much it.

I can't do much more than show why I'm a villager. You guys are giving me too much credit for my wolf game... or not enough, I'm not sure. But no way am I this aggressive against my own buddies.

And when I flip villager, remember JKDS was telling you all that my role in the rilla lynch was minimal, and remember that drew was moaning at my contribution to the lynch when he reluctantly hopped off a villager in favour of a wolf.

I'm down with either drew or jkds.

[MadMojoMonkey]

ok firstly I havent even done one single read through this game. not one.

mmm regarding gabe, i cant remember a single thing he has said this game so i dont understand your town read on him

:/

[Hoopy]

I'm not convinced on Keybored being wolf despite his late switch to me. Seems like he's been consistent and is just going on an incorrect read.

My read for final wolf is Luco.

Luco is not a wolf, he switched to rilla right after I pushed the wagon. No way the wolves actively try and get another wolf dead with the way this game is going.

[Keybored]

Keybored and dweeber can't be trusted to win the end-game for the village.

Well, with that vote of confidence, thanks for letting us play along thus far MadMoMo.
I get the strategy but it's a harsh reality to see posted.
Now that we've pared the wolves down, it looks like it'll be time to trim the vill fat whilst half-assed hunting.
Bonus if one/both of us is wolf. No sweat if not.
Doesn't really inspire motivation; so why would a villager treat fellow vills like this?

Lynch MadMojoMonkey

[MadMojoMonkey]

@Luco: That one line is lynch-worthy all by itself. How you gonna win for the village if you brag about NOT reading the thread? You're intentionally throwing that BS out here for what?

***
@keybored: We all have to learn sometime. I've not survived to an endgame yet, myself... and for good reason. Not every villager can survive, and the job of each villager is to put their best reads out there, so that when they ARE dead, the rest of the village can read them knowing they were a villager after all. What do you want for your team?

The players in this field are capable of making amazing reads on very subtle information. Respect that you and I are sometimes stuck on the lower levels.

***
I don't like Ong... I thought day 1 was V-V or W-W. Keith was adamant about ong-wolf. I think his voting on rilla is suspect.
Every day there's a little more to add on the case. Each piece is a little iffy, but they just keep happening.

rilla actually engaged Ong, but it's not clear that Ong's prodding was effective. My feeling is that rilla had decided that he had to put some activity out there and Ong was ITT at the time.

When I popped into the thread and saw that rilla was posting, I immediately tried to engage him, but to no avail.

***
That said, Keybored and dhubs are OK votes. There is a general consensus that there is at least 1 wolf in there. I have my misgivings, as I've noted with the noob-vil line. If nothing else, the line they're taking is noob-vil and that line ends in the mid-game at latest.

***
The dead still have 4 ghost angels to use. That means there will definitely be a block/revive on night 5.

[Keybored]

MMM - Thanks for the compliment. My justification is that I didn't care before but now I do.

Ong - I truly do think you're a wolf. I think I have a solid read on the way you post whether you are a villager or a wolf. If I'm wrong, I guess it's back to the drawing board for me as far as soulreads go.

BID has blinders on. He's looking at Ong thru a telescope and refuses to look at the sky around him. I can't get behind someone who's so narrowly focused and so emotionally biased. Like Keith, I can't tell if he's vill or not but I'm not jumping on his Ong wagon with this micro viewpoint. I'm neutral on BID for now but watching his Ong fight with interest.

MMM has been hacking the whole game. He's hard for me to read but I def don't see any true hunting and his anti-villager comment to me/doobs is telling of his true nature. Also, BID's bff comment to him above makes me nervous. Could easily be den-chattiness spilling over into game thread. I'm hard wolf on him right now.

Ong's been battling the entire game yet still seems to hunt objectively. He's been strong with both wolf kills. I'm seeing villager.

JKDS, as I mentioned before, was MIA 4ever and only engaged when I jabbed him for it. Had one foot in the grave and talked his way out of the noose. I'm weary of this lackadaisical start and subsequent IDGAF attitude. Plus, he's also basing everything on his Keith read. Strong wolf lean for me.

Dhuber is so wolf, y'all. Just read his stuff; there ain't much. BID/JKDS are putting him 100% vil simply cuz of voting pattern back on d1. And he must be eating that up back in the den. But MMM is right about a noob wolf, he wouldn't win as the last one.

Gabe hasn't given me anything to read; mostly cuz he's a super low poster like Dhoobs. His comments are sound and usually straight to the point but he comes across like John Wayne busting thru the saloon doors, expecting everyone to stop and pay attn. I don't like his over confidence and smugness. He's leaning wolf too.

Luco appears to be looking at the BID/Ong battle with open mindedness and not bowing down to JKDS like others have. He thinks independently and expresses his views with clarity. I haven't seen a single wolf tell from him. I like him for villager.

Hoopy has to be a villager. Dude is just bouncing along not caring either way, barely paying attn (missed vote) and posts off the top of his head. He's no wolf.

I'm not big on overanalyzing vote patterns, as Baud would say, it's WIFOM. So I haven't factored that in above.

Last two wolves are here: Dhuber, MMM, Gabe, JKDS.
I don't feel threatened by Dhuber as the last wolf so my vote's staying on MMM.

ps...I brought up the night chat issue and then we didn't have a night! Tells me it's not a wolf-friendly activity.

[Keybored]

@keybored: We all have to learn sometime. I've not survived to an endgame yet, myself... and for good reason. Not every villager can survive, and the job of each villager is to put their best reads out there, so that when they ARE dead, the rest of the village can read them knowing they were a villager after all. What do you want for your team?

The players in this field are capable of making amazing reads on very subtle information. Respect that you and I are sometimes stuck on the lower levels.

I completely agree and I totally respect the incredible capabilities of some of the players.
But in a game situation, I think a villager announcing this to everyone (as was your pov) is not vill-friendly and is something only a wolf would let slip.

[Luco]

@Luco: That one line is lynch-worthy all by itself. How you gonna win for the village if you brag about NOT reading the thread? You're intentionally throwing that BS out here for what?

Dude, chill. It's just a game. There isn't a bad player in this game, I'm just happy to trundle along for this one.

[Luco]

keyb and mmm need to back off each other

[Luco]

Gabe - Shouldn't be allowed to endgame with his lack of input. maybe wolf
MMM - Still very villager
JKDS - wolf #1
Dhuber - baud had quite the little hardon for this guy which is a definite villager lean, but his refusal to engage is very worrying considering how much he kept saying he's a villager who wants the win. maybe wolf
Ong - come on guys. Villager
BID - If he's wolfin he's improved a lot
Hoops - nailed on villager
Keybored - lol he called rilla a 'poor dude' right before the hang. I'm pretty sold on him as v right now

I'm happy lynching any of jkds, dhuber, gabe and prolly in that order too

[Luco]

MMM I read through before posting that

[Hoopy]

Huber, do you know the term WIFOM? it means Wine In Front Of Me -- a "The Princess Bride" reference, where Vizzini levels himself with circular reasoning. That's the problem I have.

See, I get you are saying you have never been a regular villager before. But you said that last game, "Once again I'm vanilla." the problem is that was a lie both ways; you were not vanilla, nor had you ever been. Of course you were doing it in a pro-village way, and because it was anon you could hide your identity.

But here we only have two roles: villager and wolves. So are you telling the truth here? Or is it a deception of sorts like before? It's like you are facing internal resistance to saying, "I'm a villager."

I find your post fascinating because there are 3-4 minor little tells, but they are mixed. If you're a villager I urge you to remain engaged and active in the thread in order to clear yourself and not be mislynch bait.

Does baudib really point this out if dhuber is also a wolfie? I think he'd just say something in the wolf thread.

[Luco]

Does baudib really point this out if dhuber is also a wolfie? I think he'd just say something in the wolf thread.

Yeah that was one of the posts I had in mind and I know what you mean. But god damn is dhuber wolfy

[Keybored]

keyb and mmm need to back off each other

Can I getta tic-tac?
S'all good...rubbin's racin'

[MadMojoMonkey]

#146

The only dumb people are those that think that the wolves controlling the dead thread and therefore the first couple of protections is +EV for the village.

#456

I find it hard to believe that people think I'm wolfier than jkds after the two wolf flips we've have, but somehow jkds and drew are still hanging on to the idea that the situation the wolves currently find themselves in is somehow part of their great masterplan.

#479

Luco is not a wolf, he switched to rilla right after I pushed the wagon. No way the wolves actively try and get another wolf dead with the way this game is going.

It's not out of the question that wolves were on rilla's wagon.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Personally, I think keybored is village. He's put in a lot of effort. He is obviously re-reading the thread. He is posting developed arguments with references. He's responded to all criticism.

***
gabe is all-in on ong right now.

gabe has given us very little, but it's helped nab 2 wolves. If he's not hunting well, and not involved, then he's gabewolf.

If ong flips village, then gabe-wolf is done.

[gabe]

i know im not posting alot. ive thought about how this is different than the last couple games where i was a wolf, and also didnt post much

i feel like when i was a wolf i tried to at least actively convince people of things. so far in this game ive just kinda stated my few opinions and hope they stuck.

when im a wolf it feels like it matters if i die, so i have to persuade people. here im not as attached since im just another villager


in conclusion yall can stop considering me as a possible wolf. has anyone ever been a wolf 4 games in a row anyway??

[Keybored]

D1, Baud lynched.
N1, Keith wolfed.
D2, Rilla lynched.
N2, Daven wolfed.

Why Daven n2?
Was it something he said?

Daven had a mere 4 posts on D2, here's the first...

interesting night kill
pretty sure jkds is one of them, and the other two are in {gabe/dhuber/luco/rilla}
lynch jkds

Then JKDS jumped on him and they had a couple lengthy exchanges (posts #400+).

And that's it, Daven's wolf meat n2. Took wolves less than an hour, btw.

If Villager Daven was right, he nailed Rilla (who then flipped wolf end of day) and who else???

Fingers pointed right at JKDS but it's also circling Gabe/Dhuber/Luco.

[Keybored]

Here's Gabe's last 2 posts (I'm too tired to do a full workup on him...but I will):

I have a crazy life thing going on so im not posing much but I hope you guys know I'm a villager
Ong is being less good than usual so he's a wolf.
Ship it

i know im not posting alot.
so far in this game ive just kinda stated my few opinions and hope they stuck.
when im a wolf it feels like it matters if i die, so i have to persuade people.
here im not as attached since im just another villager
in conclusion yall can stop considering me as a possible wolf.

First problem: He's sprinkling the 'love me cuz I'm a villager' pixie dust all over the place.

Next problem: He states Ong's less good, thus wolf. Then he declares he's being less gooder himself.
I don't get it.

[dhubermex]

I'm suspicious of the several players in the thread who are still stating that I'm a wolf. That's more than two, but I'm liking Ong/Keybored as wolves with Luco as a strong possibility.

I can't see anything but a solid villager lean for MMM & JKDS. And I don't believe Gabe would bring up that part about "4 games in a row" is he truly were a wolf.

I'm going to stick with Lynch OngBonga.

[wufwugy]

dhubs - ong
key - mmm
ong - jkds
mmm - ong
jkds - ong
bid - ong

nobody - gabe, luco, hoops

ong - 4
mmm - 1
jkds - 1

[gabe]

The only reason I don't want to lynch Ong is that many people want him dead

[MadMojoMonkey]

gabe: what's your take on the hoopy no-vote?

[Keybored]

I'm suspicious of the several players in the thread who are still stating that I'm a wolf. That's more than two, but I'm liking Ong/Keybored as wolves with Luco as a strong possibility.

I can't see anything but a solid villager lean for MMM & JKDS. And I don't believe Gabe would bring up that part about "4 games in a row" is he truly were a wolf.

I'm going to stick with Lynch OngBonga.

So here it is...I point out Daven's last words calling out Gabe & Dhuber. Then Gabe pops off, all crazy and I point that shit out. Then Dhoob immediately spouts a bunch of reads with absolutely no justification. And declares ME wolf. Oh, but doesn't vote me. He pops on Ong, who's not even active tonight.

Gabe & Dhuber are in the den right now scattering for cover!!

I can't vote for both but I've seen nothing but wolf from Dhoobs consistently. Gabe, only recently.
[B]Rescind and Lynch Dhuber[\B]
Done deal...

[Keybored]

Crap...Stupid backslash.
Rescind and Lynch Dhuber

[Luco]

Ok so doing a read through trying to clear people based on interaction with known wolves...

#27-30

So if I am reading this correctly, it's not a total disaster if we lose a couple of villagers the first few days. Obviously it's not +EV to lynch a villager but let's say we mislynch D1, wolves get NK that has ~50% of being blocked, and realistically much higher than that if we can make reasonable reads.

let's say
D1 -- mislynch
N1 -- 50% chance of NK
D2 -- we have 1 or 2 villagers dead
N2 -- Roles are known (presumably?), the dead village voting bloc has enormous control.

I assume the wolf is not going to give up any information when he is outnumbered 2-1. How are ties settled in the dead thread?

NO WAIT I did that wrong. bad math.

we only have a 4/12 shot of saving a villager barring good read. But still it's interesting.

I was doing a bit of math and it comes out to slightly -EV on a random lynch/random save.

HOWEVER

The interesting part comes in where the wolves have to play cat and mouse with the dead thread.

It FORCES the wolves into a suboptimal nightkill because they will have to try to avoid the ghost angel!

So I think this format actually rewards good play and just play super aggro as a village and we'll have more of the better players around late in the game.

LOL GG WOLVES

From 50% to 4/12.

From a wolf midset to OH SHIT town mindset.

Got one. Oh look I'm already voting for him.

Ok so let's assume a villager dies today. That means there's 12 left, 4 vs 8. The one villager in the dead thread will protect 4 from 12 unknown people, so a 33% shot at saving. But baudib first said 50%, which shows in his mind he's thinking that the one villager saves 4 people from 8. His 50% is consistent with a wolf not thinking it through clearly enough. I don't see how a villager gets to 50%, but I can see how a wolf does.
I think baudib slipped there with his numbers. He's not thinking like a villager.

And he continues this track for a little bit. MMM defends baud #46:

I'm not sure I like ong's argument against baud's bad numbers - merely because baud corrected them himself before anyone else pointed out his mistake.

If it was a wolf mistake, then sure, the wolf thread could have corrected baud... but then... If baud's argument is that he's bad at numbers, then it's probably better to not correct himself and just play the bad-math card when it comes up.

That seems to have gone unnoticed in ong's analysis of the bad number-thinking of baud.

#47

It didn't go unnoitced. I realise he corrected himself. That doesn't change the reason I was alarmed at his comment. He comes up with 50% chance of a save at night. That assumes that the dead thread know who the villagers are. Perhaps baudib knows who the villagers are and is stuck in that frame of mind. I don't see how else he gets to 50%. The correct figure is 75% because we probably lose a villager, then 4 from 12 unknowns. 50% is a figure if you're thinking 4 protectss from 8. Why has he got 4 from 8 in his head? And why did he realise his numbers was bad? Remember last game where gabe says he learned how to spell rapport? That was around ten minutes after his post. Around as long as it takes to go from main thread to den chit chat and back to main thread.

My problem is not that he corrected himself. My problem is baudib was making what I considered pov slips a couple of games back to the point I was fistpumping his lynch, and he turned out to be a villager. So I'm not sure if I have as much faith in pov slips as I used to. But I still find it compelling, certainly more so than anything else so far.

Baud calls mmm vill #51

MMM = pretty much a villager for his analysis

I can't believe this is even gonna be a thing but: I got excited thinking that we had a 50-50 shot at blocking the night kill because we could protect up to 4 villagers...I was thinking of the village population, not wolves...it actually is possible to protect half the village but obviously we'd have to get the right ones.

again #61

MMM:
Keith's early game posts are generally null, I think it's a mistake to try to read anything off it, as I did a couple games ago.

The game is fairly null in general though. You're really my only lean either way right now, and you're certainly a villager IMO.

MMM V likely town for this comment.

Baud addresses jkds directly twice on page 1:
#16

lynch baudib

#18

Yay I'm a legit bandwagon.

Basically JKDS, it means that the dead thread gets to be the angel and they get to vote on who gets protected each night -- 4 players.

I think this is gonna be a nightmare for Wuf but should be interesting for the deaders

#62 and 64

rescind baudib

@mmm: No offense to keybored, but I'm about to say something offensive to keybored, he's a bad choice to stick in the dead thread day1. If hes a villager, theres no guarantee he wont flip out or afk and not give us our saves. Also, hes newer and less likely to accurately predict wolf kills.

I dont like how others havent thought about this, and wanted to hop on this wagon.

I missed that part JKDS. I agree with you on Keybored, too.

rescind Daven

JKDS looks bad here

#73 attacks dhuber

I'm fine with whatever Wuf decides really. I think the epicness of being MK 2 games in a row is worth it for lulz.

As for the game, Huber is setting off alarm bells. Once again the early vanilla claim is extremely suspicious; last game he claimed this super early and it was super sketchy. As anon, he said, "once again, I'm vanilla." of course, in his first game, he wasn't vanilla, and he wasn't last game.

Also, him pointing fingers at me for little to no reason without actually voting is pretty damn wolfy. Huber got nabbed pretty early in his first game as wolf and I think we've gotten him again.

lynch Dhuber

Dhuber gets a big v lean for this

End of page 1 and

lynch jkds

Will continue later

[Luco]

Where's DHUBER?? 30 mins into d2 and he offers his one/only input of the entire day...

He's probably happy with a JKDS lynching, for whatever reason.

Wow.

If jkds flips wolf im snap lynching drew

[OngBonga]

when im a wolf it feels like it matters if i die, so i have to persuade people. here im not as attached since im just another villager

Pretty sure when gabe was last a wolf he wasn't very involved either. I'll have a look later but this comment is interesting.

[OngBonga]

in conclusion yall can stop considering me as a possible wolf. has anyone ever been a wolf 4 games in a row anyway??

Yeah gator.

And besides, have you been wolf the last three games? What's the point of this comment?

[OngBonga]

Ok it seems gabe was a wolf the last three games. Let's get an idea of gabe's activity compared to game mod.

This game gabe currently has around half the posts the mod has.
Last game he spazzed as wolf and got himself modkilled too early for comparison.
Gold rush he has roughly 70% of doober's post count.
The Edge gabe had two posts.

I'm unconvinced that gabe is being honest when he says he has more of a sense of urgency regarding surivivng when he's wolf. That's a very convenient argument for someone floating by.

[OngBonga]

gabe was a villager in the edge, so before this game he was wolf twice in a row. Why has he got three in a rown in his head?

[OngBonga]

I think he fucked up, I think this is his thrid in a row and he has that in his head.

lynch gabe

*edited bold tags

[gabe]

Zzz trying using my actions this game to make a case I'm a wolf

I only called out a few people and 2 were wolves. U either forget or think I'm spewing

[Keybored]

Here's my read on Gabe...
He's put up 10 game-relevant posts, 2% of the 500+ (aka, not towning)
He's voted a total of 3 times (aka, not wolfing)


His first vote is to distance fellow (noob) wolf...

lynch dhuber
he seems too forceful with his words, like hes trying to get us to do stuff

Next vote is to again help the noob wolf and then put heat on other bumbling wolf...

baudib and dhuber both need to get it
rescind and lynch baudib
i think daven's reasoning is good enough on baudib.
although i disagree with him saying we lynch ong next.
we'll just see

Uber confident support for his Baud-wolfbuddy vote...

ive never felt this right about a day 1 lynch

Baud-wolf giving vill cred to his wolf-buddies Gabe & Dhuber...

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to do here. Gabe could be wolfin' yet again but no one is gonna listen to me over him (for good reason I'll admit) on D1 when basically no one is doing much of anything.

I'm starting to think Huber is a villager too so I don't know wtf else to do here, like this whole game is null and I'm posting a lot so I'm always a target. It's fine, eventually I guess I'll learn and adjust and get better.

Makes weird love post to Daven and strange death callout (to again distance himself from wolf action)...

daven's reasoning for why baudib was a wolf was spot on. its the type of logic that cant be faked.
daven you are a 99.6% villager so you probably are dying tonight. gg

Gabe wants me gone cuz of my night-posting question.
Interesting how last night was cut so short, hummm :/

Lol that's so true. U should go join them
lynch keybored
because I could see him as a wolf saying not to post at night.
As a villager it's fun to post so I would never think to encourage something that would make me able to post less (since I'm a villager)

I tell him not to waste votes on stupid stuff and poke back...

so you want to lynch me cuz I want to take away your fun?
yah, that's a strong position.
I want to lynch you cuz you're so eager to throw away your vote.
Lynch Gabe

He lets me off the hook, just like that (potentially his one/only wolf hunt of the game)...

im not throwing away my vote. im also not bound to it. ok

i just think its natural for villagers to want to be able to post, and i could see you being irked by nightposters as a wolf. thus i think you are more likely to be a wolf than average.

and since i dont have any of my own good ideas voting for your seems like a good way to start day 2

Neutral Keith/Ong comment...

any time ong argues with someone it ultimately leads to ong repeatedly trying to start that person's wagon. and keith is a likely person to be in an argument with someone. because of this im not reading much into ong posts and keith's death.

Call out Dhuber (again) and fellow wolf, Rilla to make distance...

i know it seems obvious guess that daven=village, but i made a point to emphasize that his exact logic was very hard to pull off as a wolf

dhuber rilla and keybored are the 3 most suspicious today. i dont care which one gets it

Here, he's agreeing with one of JKDS's posts. Then waffles on his Dhuber position and casually tosses fellow wolf, Rilla out there...

I agree with alot of what you said but then your conclusion leaves me smdh

Daven can't be a wolf. It's too complicated for baudib and daven to want to try that tactic. It's funny when I mentioned the occam razor thing and daven thought it was wolfy when the point of the post was to protect him

After reading what u said I'm less convinced dhuber needs to die. Maybe we meet in the middle and go rilla?

His vote for Ong would be the lynch but he's reluctant cuz if Ong flips vill, Gabe's obv toast...

The only reason I don't want to lynch Ong is that many people want him dead

Challenges Ong to make a case using his actions but he knows his actions have been null.
Then actually points out his obv inaction this game.
And finishes with weak false claims...

Zzz trying using my actions this game to make a case I'm a wolf
I only called out a few people and 2 were wolves.
U either forget or think I'm spewing

Is this disinterested Vill-Gabe or Wolf-Gabe??

[OngBonga]

With baudib hanging himself d1 and rilla not bothering I can see gabe being disinterested wolf and basically floating by.

So far today he's said I'm not being good and I can hang, then he says he doesn't want to vote me because everyone else does. With only two wolves left, wolf influence is minimal and it's strange that gabe thinks me being easy to lynch gives me village points. It's not like the enitre village has been against me, although it has felt like that at times.

I can see gabe being a wolf here, probably with JKDS.

luco is right, for drew to be a wolf he's really got his game together. That's not out of the question, I've always thought drew was smarter than everyone else seems to give him credit for. drew motive's read wolfy and I've always felt that's the way to read him, but I might need to die first before people start looking at drew.

I'm gonna get back on JKDS because that's the one I have most confidence in.

lynch JKDS

[BankItDrew]

Wow.

If jkds flips wolf im snap lynching drew

Because I said dhoob is satisfied with lynching JKDS? You're off-base on this one, luco.

[BankItDrew]

Is this disinterested Vill-Gabe or Wolf-Gabe??

yes

[BankItDrew]

I've always thought drew was smarter than everyone else seems to give him credit for.

Playing the village idiot is surprisingly good for self-preservation.

[Luco]

drew

what is your case against ong? what makes him a better lynch than jkds?

[BankItDrew]

I asked you first. You still haven't explained why I'm wrong.

The onus is on you to tell me why I'm wrong.

"Think harder" is lazy and not helpful.

You're using deflection.

[Luco]

how can you read the baud/ong interaction and the baud/rilla interaction and still think he's a wolf?

Just read the first two pages again. They will show you why youre wrong.

[Luco]

that should have said rilla/ong not baud/rilla

[BankItDrew]

Luco, you still haven't explained why I'm wrong. However, I'll provide you with more reasons as to why I believe ong is a wolf.

The following quotes are from Day 1 only:

Interesting.

I've thought deeply about this for at least a minute and optimal play by far is a lynch baudib.

Very first post of the game was for the lolz

Basically he's either dumb or playing dumb.

lynch keith

I can't help thinking that baud and ong are both wolves trying to get lynched and dominate the dead thread and control the angel protects.

Yeah I've seen enough.

lynch keith

This implies keith knows drew is a villager.

keith is a wolf.

keith is a wolf and drew and baudib are villagers.

Ong - I'm on the fence with ong (I wrote this after his first few posts). I'm currently placing ong on the wolf side of the fence (I wrote this after reading his last few posts). I have a very good read on him imo (I nailed his role the last couple of games early). On one hand, his exchange with baudib early seemed like a sincere villager, but his language is slightly different than villager ong.


lynch ong

I'm sticking to my read.

Kill me because I'm sick of telling keith his argument is stupid.

yeah keith isn't this stupid. He's a wolf.

back to back rilla posts:

This game set up is dumb. It's a game where nothing matters.

lynch buadib

lynch Keith

[MadMojoMonkey]

I can't figure a wolf-strat that involves dominating the dead thread to NOT burn the saves. The power of the save/revive is huge for the village. If that was it, then it's powerful enough, but the revived villager almost def gets nommed the first night. If there are more night angels to protect the revived player, then the meta throws the wolves into sub-optimal play no matter what.


Whatever Keith was right about, dropping 2 wolves early to dominate the dead thread seems like that wasn't it.

Conclusion: the wolves did not want to lose rilla on day 2.

***
Rereading the late vote from yesterday:

Hoopy and Luco are so vil.

BID is reading consistently as town for town. The only way his vote on rilla is W-W is if rilla told him to do it... but I've been over that.

I hate to say it, but ong's story of holding rilla's feet to the fire is consistent. He brings it up at the end of the JKDS exchange, before the rilla swing happened.

rescind OngBonga

***
I'm shocked if they're not town:
MMM
BID
Hoopy
Keybored
Luco

Is probably town
Gabe


I wouldn't be surprised either way
Ong
JKDS
Dhuber

***
For the record, I'm basically done on Ong. I'm putting him in the group of people who baffle me.
When he's town, he's a tornado that grinds up everyone. When he's a wolf, he's a tornado that grinds up everyone.

***
JKDS "I'm going to disneyland" comment is terribly convenient to make as a wolf.
How can the village lynch him if he's AFK for the ghost angel vote?

***
Dhuber has looked the worst all game through. He's made everyone's nose hairs twitch at least once or twice.

If there are 2 wolves in {gabe, Ong, JKDS, Dhuber}, then I think Dhuber looks the worst.

lynch dhubermex

[BankItDrew]

MMM is a genius who started the rilla wagon so I'm just going to do what he does.

rescind ong

lynch dhubermex

[MadMojoMonkey]

The JKDS comment should read "how can the village risk a mislynch" on him.

[MadMojoMonkey]

MMM is a genius who started the rilla wagon so I'm just going to do what he does.

rescind ong

lynch dhubermex

Your reasons for voting baudib (as bolded above in my analysis) were lame, that's obvious. Why does baudib 'stink' more than ong?

:/

[BankItDrew]

Sometimes I'm a hypocrite.

[Luco]

drew heres the thing

you directly defended baud d1. You indirectly defended rilla d2. your comment about being vanilla got no attention from baudib while dhubers comment about being vanilla got plenty. on d1 you picked up two quick votes and baudib didnt bother to comment. you chide me for my definitive stance on ong but you yourself seem to have taken one.

I respect that youre playing in a manner that isnt necessary as a wolf (you could have just played to your reputation), but these things about your play this game have me worried

You keep saying i havent told you why youre wrong about ong but I have. extended bickering between players is almost never w-w and ong has extended bickering with not one, but two confirmed wolves. Now tell me why you think jkds is a villager.