Ok so let's assume a villager dies today. That means there's 12 left, 4 vs 8. The one villager in the dead thread will protect 4 from 12 unknown people, so a 33% shot at saving. But baudib first said 50%, which shows in his mind he's thinking that the one villager saves 4 people from 8. His 50% is consistent with a wolf not thinking it through clearly enough. I don't see how a villager gets to 50%, but I can see how a wolf does.
I think baudib slipped there with his numbers. He's not thinking like a villager.