2013: Make or break

[griffey24]

I think this past weekend was a valuable weekend for me, and the overall goal of this blog to minimize avoidable losses.

I ran very bad this weekend, $2k+ under EV, and ended up losing around $2,550. But way more importantly is that I let the bad variance lead to way too many additional avoidable losses.

When I start losing all-ins when I get it in ahead/way ahead, I get into this dumb mode in other spots at showdowns. This is the "what ridiculous hand could you possibly have that beats me here" mode, and call to see the ridiculousness, and to validate that this session is in fact as absurd a variance beating as I think it is.

This is nothing new, as anyone that has followed my other blogs will know. But I'm glad this happened early in the year. The goal for the year is to minimize avoidable losses, with the KEY goal for the year being to minimize avoidable losses in BAD sessions or RUN BAD sessions. That is when it is the hardest to do, and also when it is the most important.

In the moment of a bad session when I'm facing a big bet or big shove, all I see is "he's only repping these two hands, that's all he can have. Everyone else keeps hitting, no way he has this too", whereas after the fact I see clearly "he's not bluffing in this spot for these XYZ reasons, regardless of how narrow he reps".

I think any time I'm going to make a big b/c, or big call in a difficult spot I need to ask myself these questions:
1. Does my range LOOK strong?
2. Can my range BE strong?
3. Can their range BE strong?
4. Do they expect me to fold?

I'm going to try and actively think about those four questions in tough spots.

The distinction between 1. and 2. being:
-if I triple barrel 1/3rd pot, I don't look strong but I could be strong.
-If I'm 3betting 10% and flat CO on Btn, and raise AK3 rainbow IP, I look strong but I can't really BE strong (would 3bet AK/KK/AA pre)
-if I check back a flush card on the turn and bet 1/3rd pot on the river brick when checked to, I don't look strong AND I can't really be strong
-if i double barrel from EP into two players (including one fish), I look strong and can be strong.
etc. etc

The major point being, that if both point 1. and 2. are YES then the chances of being bluffed are much smaller. If 1. and 2. are NO then the chances of being bluffed are much higher, and this needs to be considered.

This is all mostly straight forward, but I'm hoping that actively thinking about those four questions all the time will let me stay more focused when my brain might be influenced by variance.


Winnings on the year: $50 (sigh - 14k hands)
Avoidable losses on the year: $3,330

INSERT TURNING POINT!