2013: Make or break

[Luco]

I was reading an old article from THIS IS SPENDAAAAAAAAA yesterday and saw this:

Tilt Control – Phil Ivey

This may surprise those who do not know it, but Phil Ivey is the king of “stop losses” online. Ivey refuses to play after losing a certain number of buy-ins which can be as low as two. This commitment to only playing when winning is a big part of why Ivey has been the number one earner in online poker history despite playing about 10% as much as players such as Dwan, Galfond, and CTS. Ivey does not succumb to tilt, he merely turns off the computer and comes back at a different time when he is more focused.

Taken from: Building an Unbeatable Poker Player

Your stop loss sounds good to me

[griffey24]

I was reading an old article from THIS IS SPENDAAAAAAAAA yesterday and saw this:



Taken from: Building an Unbeatable Poker Player

Your stop loss sounds good to me

Nice, that's a good article. I have no problem being in the same category as Ivey

I think I might try and actually look into previous months and try to estimate how much I would have saved / extra lost if I had implemented this a while ago.

Might take a while but we'll see how it goes.

[Alexos]

Nice, that's a good article. I have no problem being in the same category as Ivey

I think I might try and actually look into previous months and try to estimate how much I would have saved / extra lost if I had implemented this a while ago.

Might take a while but we'll see how it goes.

dont waste your time lol.

I think you play when losing because often you manage to get it back to even somehow, or at least whenever we talk. You know I'm a huuuge advocate of keeping playing when up, and keeping sessions short when you're down. There's just so many reasons for it, not only because you play better when you're up vs down, but also you get a psychological edge vs other regs during that sesh. I don't think it has to be a strict amount of stop loss, sometimes it might be half a buyin, other times 4 buyins, so long as your winning sessions eventually end up being longer than your losing ones.

[griffey24]

I think I might try and actually look into previous months and try to estimate how much I would have saved / extra lost if I had implemented this a while ago.

I don't know if this program is common knowledge, but I downloaded a program called tilt breaker after Alex mentioned it to me a couple days ago.

The program costs $50 which I haven't paid for yet, but there is a 15 day trial. I haven't used it "in session" yet, but I think its useful for anyone with a large sample of hands to just download.

Using the trial you can run different reports on your database. How your winrate changes based on : 1. the duration of your session 2. how much you've won in a session 3. how many hands you've played in a session.

For each of these reports it recommends an ideal range for you, so that you can input alerts or quit points into the program. I haven't tested this yet, but once you reach some quit points it will either alert you or if you're using stars/FT etc you can have it just auto close your tables when you're done the current hand.

I'll try testing it out today and let ppl know how it goes. I think regardless of if you buy it the reports are interesting.

It's interesting for me that always 0 hands into a session my winrate is very very negative and increases linearly up to a point and then slowly drops off from there and then tanks at some number of hands into a session. So I clearly do spewy things right at the beginning (which I'm aware of - I usually try to rampant 3b ppl early to create a dynamic), but interesting to see in winrate. I also clearly tank right at end of sessions, which makes sense for all the sessions I quit right after I lose a buyin or two at the end.

[griffey24]

Played decently today, but variance isn't treating me well last week or so. Had about $100 avoidable, which could probably go either way. I think people's flop calling ranges can be tons of pairs on this particular board, and a lot of that range might fold turn jam.

Hand 29)

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($246.05) 123bb
UTG+1 ($771.80) 386bb
CO ($162) 81bb
BTN ($225.15) 113bb
griffey24 (SB) ($202) 101bb
BB ($753.30) 377bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
UTG raises to $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $28, 1 fold, UTG folds, CO calls $22

Flop: ($64, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $40, CO calls $40

Turn: ($144, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $134


Winnings on the year: -$292
Avoidable losses on the year: $3,430

[griffey24]

My two totals are going off the rails at the moment. I'm getting EV smoked this month and over the last 7 days I'm 3.3k under EV, but I can't let that get to me.

Played meh ok'ish today, other than my 'avoidable losses'. Was down $1500 today, lost a ton of flips. Had what I'm going to count as $500 avoidable, though I think they aren't horrible. Mostly getting it in light vs aggro players.

Winnings on the year: -$1815
Avoidable losses on the year: $3,930

Avoidable Losses:

Hand 30)

My image is very aggro. 3b of around 12-14 on this table, and I've 3bet this particular villain a few times earlier. He opens wide UTG, and he insta 4b here, and is pretty bad overall. Calls tons of 3bets, calls down super light postflop with nonsense (pockets like 77 on AQx boards) type player.

Should obv be folding pre after 4b.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($239) 120bb
CO ($825.50) 413bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($197) 99bb
SB ($195) 98bb
BB ($236.50) 118bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) griffey24 is BTN
UTG raises to $6, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $18, 2 folds, UTG raises to $35, griffey24 calls $17

Flop: ($73, 2 players)
UTG bets $37, griffey24 calls $37

Turn: ($147, 2 players)
UTG bets $150, griffey24 calls $125

River: ($397, 2 players)

Final Pot: $397
UTG shows

griffey24 shows


UTG wins $444 (net +$222)

griffey24 lost $197


Hand 31)
This hand is meh, obviously avoidable. utg opens wideish EP and folds lots of 3bets. Squeezer has pretty high squ, approaching 9-10%. I've also been 3betting a ton, so I think when aggro players flat pre it's an even better spot for a squeezer because they are rarely flatting strong hands. Either way, I don't think squeezer is quite aggro enough to warrant this.

Also important to be noted is that preflop is definitely a fold to the open UTG, but SB is a mega mega whale, so everyone was calling hands pre to stack the whale.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($200) 100bb
griffey24 (CO) ($179) 90bb
BTN ($259.80) 130bb
SB ($216) 108bb
BB ($418.26) 209bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) griffey24 is CO
UTG raises to $6, griffey24 calls $6, 2 folds, BB raises to $25, UTG folds, griffey24 goes all-in $179

[griffey24]

Things are kinda going out of control lately. Before every session I tell myself I'm going to play solid solid, and not spew. Yet somehow once the session begins its uncontrollable. The big factor for this is that I've mostly stopped cold calling lately, so I'm either 3b or folding. As a result my 3bet is around 12-13%, so it's hard not to get caught up in the dynamic.

Furthermore, I'm pretty positive that my "avoidable losses" and running bad are very tightly correlated.

My avoidable losses today are tough to calculate. They are spots where my play is for a reason, but they end up not working out too well.

Avoidable losses for the day are huge, I'm estimating around $1500 though I'm being hard on myself because I think some plays are fine. Here are a few.

Avoidable Losses

Hand 31)
Villain in this hand steals about 47%, 45% on SB and 4bets around 27%. I've been looking for spots lately to increase my 3b/5b range, given I'm 3betting so much. I think suited connectors (JTs/QJs) vs players that have a high steal and 4b is a good spot. Partially because they are prob 4b folding a fair bit, and partially because I think they show up with hands like 77-99 a lot more that I'm still flipping against.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($415.30) 104bb
CO ($724.30) 181bb
BTN ($475) 119bb
SB ($708.70) 177bb
griffey24 (BB) ($440) 110bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BB
3 folds, SB raises to $12, griffey24 raises to $36, SB raises to $76, griffey24 goes all-in $440, SB calls $364

Flop: ($880, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($880, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($880, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $880
SB shows

griffey24 shows


SB wins $877 (net +$437)

griffey24 lost $440


Hand 32)
This hand is vs the same villain as the first hand. We have some crazy dynamic happening right now. last orbit I 3b him 3 hands in a row. The first hand he 4b to this size I folded, the next hand he 4b to 76 I jammed he folded, the next hand I 3b his utg with AQdd he 4b I flatted and he took one bet off me post-flop with AK and won.

Even though villain is getting waay out of line (though so am I), I should still just fold or jam pre, even though the price is good to peel. OOP peel is meh, for precisely this reason. River may or may not be super thin, but I think given dynamic he can hero call AK/AQ here. (and apparently also with 4x if he didn't bink turn)

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($512) 128bb
UTG+1 ($554.50) 139bb
CO ($436.45) 109bb
BTN ($1,371.20) 343bb
griffey24 (SB) ($400) 100bb
BB ($400) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
3 folds, BTN raises to $8, griffey24 raises to $32, 1 fold, BTN raises to $60, griffey24 calls $28

Flop: ($124, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($124, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $70, BTN calls $70

River: ($264, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $270, BTN calls $270

Final Pot: $804
BTN shows

griffey24 shows


BTN wins $801 (net +$401)

griffey24 lost $400

Hand 33)
Again this hand is avoidable, but there was so much aggro dynamic between us. This is the first time the stacks got this deep, and was pretty sure he'd view a 4b here as pure bs. Villain is also the type of player that 3bets light in polarized spots.

I was pretty confident his 5b was weak here. For better or for worse I go with my reads. I think this is the first time I've ever seen someone 5b call off AQ vs me before in this type of spot.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($462.10) 116bb
UTG+1 ($484.45) 121bb
CO ($1,731.80) 433bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($581) 145bb
SB ($372) 93bb
BB ($512) 128bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BTN
3 folds, griffey24 raises to $10, 1 fold, BB raises to $35, griffey24 raises to $70, BB raises to $116, griffey24 goes all-in $581, BB calls $396

Flop: ($1,026, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($1,026, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($1,026, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1,026
griffey24 shows

BB shows


BB wins $1,023 (net +$511)

griffey24 collects $138 (net -$443)


Other hands - Turning my hand into bluff?

Hand 34)
Villain in this hand opens wide EP, and cbets pretty high. He has a low turn barrel of around 35% compared to flop cb of like 80%. On the river I think this is a pretty good spot to turn my hand into a bluff?

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($539) 135bb
CO ($400) 100bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($345) 86bb
SB ($400) 100bb
BB ($696.70) 174bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BTN
UTG raises to $12, 1 fold, griffey24 calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
UTG bets $22.50, griffey24 calls $22.50

Turn: ($75, 2 players)
UTG checks, griffey24 bets $40, UTG calls $40

River: ($155, 2 players)
UTG checks, griffey24 bets $155?


Hand 35
This is just a spot where given stack sizes and his sizings, I just don't think he's that strong. I also have a lot of fold equity here given stack sizes.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
griffey24 (UTG) ($502.80) 251bb
UTG+1 ($198) 99bb
CO ($336.25) 168bb
BTN ($566.40) 283bb
SB ($185.45) 93bb
BB ($217.25) 109bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is UTG
griffey24 raises to $6, 2 folds, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $11, griffey24 calls $11

Turn: ($37, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $27, griffey24 calls $27

River: ($91, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $69, griffey24 goes all-in $458.80?


Can't outrun EV this month, and it's having a bad impact so far!

Maybe at the end of this month when I see how huge my avoidable losses are, it'll wake me up? Let's hope so. Maybe I shouldn't wait for the end of the month for this wakeup call.


Winnings on the year: -$3935
Avoidable losses on the year: $5,500

[griffey24]

Keeping Track of table Dynamics

Played a very good session today and decided to try something new. One thing I've been noticing the last week or so is that I'm 3betting a ton, but that I'm making that "over the edge" 3bet at the wrong time.

By "over the edge" 3bet, I mean the one that is likely to get played back at. For pretty aggro players I'd say once you've popped them twice, you definitely have something coming. For tighter players they might be able to put up with the third or fourth before 4b bluffing you etc.

One thing I tried doing this session is having notepad up in the corner of my screen and typing in the players name and how many times I've popped them (10 tabling, hard to always keep track of this in my head). My plan going forward is to hit the brakes vs aggro players once I've 3bet them twice, and similarly after the third vs tighter players. After that point wait for a solid hand I want to go with.

I figure if I get this timing right, then instead of 3betting to 10bb and folding to their 4b of 25bb (loss of 10bb), I can jam and often win 25bb or likely get it in vs a weaker range since they are fed up. That's a net gain of at least 35bb, just by timing the breaking point 3b properly.

Does anyone else have any other strategies for keeping track of table dynamics across a number of tables? (side note if it wasn't already obvious: I have a bad memory!)


Winnings on the year: -$1955
Avoidable losses on the year: $5,500