2013: Make or break

Hey All,

It's been a longggg time since I've posted a blog post, or posted much at all really.

2012:

2012 was a pretty eventful year for me. I got engaged in April, and the wedding is coming up this July. I also got a new job as a Project Manager which is going pretty well so far.

Poker has consequently been on the back-burner for most of the year. That being said, I still put in some reasonable volume (~8-10k hands per month). 2012 ended out on a rough note (down $8k in December), which in turn resulted in my worst poker year since I started playing. It became clear to me this year that when you're not putting in good volume, out-running variance can sometimes take a very very long time.

Cross-roads:

I think it's safe to say that this year is a poker turning point for me. I'm reasonably past the "poker is fun" stage, and now it's come down to 10% fun, and 90% "is it worth the time investment?"

The idea of NOT playing seems very strange to me, so let's just hope the ship turns around!

2012 Poker lessons:

Avoidable Losses

-one thing I started doing in 2012 was keeping track of "avoidable losses" in my sessions. If I stupidly peeled a small 4b, and then bluffed off for $350 consequently, I'd mark this down as $350 avoidable, etc etc. Any loss where I deem "I should know better", was tracked
-I wasn't doing this for the full year, but for 9 months, and extrapolating over the full year my avoidable losses came to $18,500! This was over the course of approximately 100-120 sessions playing a combo of $200-$600nl.
-This made me realize that even $100 saved per session in avoidable losses will add up to $10-12k in a year.
-Lesson Learned: Small pots matter! Don't just focus on the big losses, 15-30bb mistakes over the course of a year add up HUGE.

Spots to fix:
-bad flop peels in 3b pots (~15bb)
-bad flop cbets in 3b pots (~15bb)
-bad spots to 4b bluff (~20-25bb)
-bad river triple barrel (~25bb)

There are tons of spots where these types of mistakes can occur. Finding a few -EV spots, and removing them from your game can help a lot.


Bet sizing

-Another spot to focus on for 2013 is bet sizing. I've been playing around with very small bet sizing lately and it seems to work well, especially in 3bet pots.
-For too much of the year I was playing around with 3/4 pot + sizing to put pressure on people, but I think that sizing just got me in a lot of bad spots and had to work too often to be profitable.
-I don't have anything concrete to add on this point other than I'll keep trying this out, the frequency at which small bets have to work is so low that it seems to be profitable so far

My main focus on the year will be to focus on those avoidable losses. I'm going to keep tracking them, and keep paying closer attention to the number of 15+ bb mistakes I feel I'm making per session. The goal is to get these mistakes down. I'm pretty positive that if these mistakes go down, my winnings will go up.

2013 is make or break! Hopefully it ends up being the former and not the latter!

-Griffey

Always enjoyed your blogs. Good luck in the new year.

1/3-1/2 pot 3Bs often work well as value/bluff plays and if not too deep you can still get it in easy by river. You will also get called by worse often.

Interesting read. Thank you sir

Yay so happy to see this thread! GL!

It would be great to have you back

Originally Posted by griffey24

The idea of NOT playing seems very strange to me

This has been something I have really struggled with. No matter what goes on in my life

Looking forward to the blog.

Do you think it's possible that those mistakes you are referring to have any potential upside from their effect on villains opinion of you and your ranges?

gogogogo!

Thanks everyone for the support!

Originally Posted by rong

Looking forward to the blog.

Do you think it's possible that those mistakes you are referring to have any potential upside from their effect on villains opinion of you and your ranges?

Yah I think this is possible. I'm sure there are times where I make $400 mistakes in a few sessions, and sometimes it pays off and I spike and get action etc. In my calculation of "total avoidable", i'm not offsetting the totals when it goes my way. That's one consideration.

In terms of ppl's reads on me, and how I play. Sometimes it really surprises me how little people adjust. I really feel like I over-adjust or adjust too quickly to opponents, and assume everyone adjusts at the same rate I do. Realistically, it feels like people hardly adjust to the extent I assume they would, or at least it appears to happen a lot more slowly. I rarely find myself saying "wow... you called with that"

I'd say people's biggest adjustments to my style of play is not stacking off lighter, but slow playing bigger hands, and flatting big pairs to 3bets pre etc. So their stacking ranges are mostly the same, but the way they go about stacking just changes due to my style of play it seems.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Thanks everyone for the support!



Yah I think this is possible. I'm sure there are times where I make $400 mistakes in a few sessions, and sometimes it pays off and I spike and get action etc. In my calculation of "total avoidable", i'm not offsetting the totals when it goes my way. That's one consideration.

In terms of ppl's reads on me, and how I play. Sometimes it really surprises me how little people adjust. I really feel like I over-adjust or adjust too quickly to opponents, and assume everyone adjusts at the same rate I do. Realistically, it feels like people hardly adjust to the extent I assume they would, or at least it appears to happen a lot more slowly. I rarely find myself saying "wow... you called with that"

I'd say people's biggest adjustments to my style of play is not stacking off lighter, but slow playing bigger hands, and flatting big pairs to 3bets pre etc. So their stacking ranges are mostly the same, but the way they go about stacking just changes due to my style of play it seems.

Which is highly exploitable since they are getting to showdown with similar ranges. I've noticed very similar things.

Complete side note:

I'm very excited to watch the blue jays finally make the playoffs this year!

Not having myself at the table should save you some money as well!

GL sir, keep the torch burning.

I'm going to post about sessions as often as I can, mostly to stay accountable for any avoidable losses.

First sessions of year went well, up like $1400. In my opinion had zero spews and pretty much zero avoidable losses which is a good start. This is helped by folding to 3bets at almost 80%, but whatever it takes!

Not too many interesting hands from the session. I caught villain bluffing early after calling a 3b with aces, and he's been folding 3bets ever since.

This flop is for sure ideal for very small sizing. 1/4 pot seems fine here. Only has to work 20% of the time with this sizing as well.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($356) 89bb
UTG+1 ($488.40) 122bb
CO ($589) 147bb
BTN ($414.50) 104bb
griffey24 (SB) ($836) 209bb
BB ($400) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
3 folds, BTN raises to $8, griffey24 raises to $32, 1 fold, BTN calls $24

Flop: ($68, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $16, BTN folds

Final Pot: $68

griffey24 wins $97 (net +$49)

BTN lost $32

You're betting that size with your entire range on that flop?

$16 on that flop. Good read, and some guts

Well done

Can you talk about your estimates for villains range and range for continuing in the hand above please.

Also, do you think this will change after you've used this bet size a few times in a session?

And also what courty said. When are you looking to use it? The above makes sense as a bluff that rarely works. Are you only using this bet size as a bluff? Are you happy for people to realise this is usually a bluff in the expectation that you'll still get away with it frequently enough?

Courtie - yep entire range. Well certainly entire bluff range and value range. Maybe there are some in between hands like 55-99,78ss type stuff that I may take a differently line with.

Why should we only bet $16 with a bluff here?

This seems like pretty reasonable sizing with QQ+ here for sure. The pot is $68 on flop and we bet $16 on flop with ~360 behind. Turn brings whatever, we bet $65-$70 into $100 if we'd like. That leaves $290 behind on the river and the pot is $240. I wouldn't mind having closer to pot left, but it's certainly a reasonable size to have left behind to choose to bet $135 into $240 or choose to overbet shove by a bit into $240 and let him decide what's up, depending on the dynamic up to that point.

From what I can tell this type of sizing works decently well at $200nl+, where I'd imagine people are folding mostly because they realize the probability of firing $16 and NOT firing again is very low, so they just cut their losses, because they don't want to call two+ barrels with their range. It's possible people at lower stakes peel this flop, but they will peel with sooo many hands that can't handle heat on this board too.

Other sizing spots:

2)
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($1,109.35) 277bb
UTG+1 ($335.80) 84bb
CO ($766.60) 192bb
BTN ($436.50) 109bb
SB ($396) 99bb
griffey24 (BB) ($400) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
2 folds, CO raises to $12, BTN calls $12, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $50, CO folds, BTN calls $38

Flop: ($114, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $35, BTN folds

Final Pot: $114

griffey24 wins $181 (net +$96)

CO lost $12
BTN lost $50


3)
Sure if you bet small, something like this might start happening. So reads help if you know that ppl generally call down strong, or you expect people to play back. I don't expect this villain to ever min-raise here with clubs, and he's not the type to do that with KQ+ either.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($203) 102bb
UTG+1 ($200) 100bb
CO ($213.25) 107bb
BTN ($271.95) 136bb
griffey24 (SB) ($250) 125bb
BB ($196.67) 98bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
3 folds, BTN raises to $6, griffey24 raises to $25, 1 fold, BTN calls $19

Flop: ($52, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $14, BTN raises to $28, griffey24 raises to $50, BTN folds

Final Pot: $108

griffey24 wins $149 (net +$74)

BTN lost $53

Additional comment to different bet sizings. If you're not comfortable trying this with air like the above hands, then try playing around with sizing with your big hands. It'll surprise you / annoy you in how many spots ppl will fold to your big hands, to the smallest of sizings.

Played well today, up $2.1k on year. Will be posting a few hands. Have a few that I will put into my avoidable losses section.

Avoidable Losses

Total avoidable losses today are not ideal.
I'd estimate them at about $735 (even though I won two of these hands), that's unacceptably high. Need to get that down.

4)
Villain is a fish, who calls like 45% of 3bets. His timing was messed this hand, snap calling pre and flop and then min raising turn. It felt like a spot where I see bad players try to min raise for cheap showdown.
Given the remaining stacks I'd say this is a definite don't try this at home, but I had a pretty strong read/feel he was folding. Nonetheless, I think I'll include this as $400 avoidable.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($410) 103bb
CO ($611.40) 153bb
BTN ($444.70) 111bb
SB ($413) 103bb
griffey24 (BB) ($394) 99bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $14, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $50, BTN calls $36

Flop: ($102, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $35, BTN calls $35

Turn: ($172, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $70, BTN raises to $140, griffey24 goes all-in $309, BTN folds

Final Pot: $452

griffey24 wins $787 (net +$393)

BTN lost $225


5)
Villain in this hand has a low wtsd of 26% and high won at sd of 51% over a large sample. I haven't been on him much this session, so felt like he could find a fold of a pair. Another hand that I don't hate, that worked, but I think its avoidable. I think the decision here is mostly on the turn though, to give up or go with it all the way on this particular card.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($364.40) 182bb
BTN ($217.10) 109bb
SB ($236) 118bb
griffey24 (BB) ($214.30) 107bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 4 players) griffey24 is BB
2 folds, SB raises to $6, griffey24 raises to $16, SB calls $10

Flop: ($32, 2 players)
SB checks, griffey24 bets $16, SB calls $16

Turn: ($64, 2 players)
SB checks, griffey24 bets $35, SB calls $35

River: ($134, 2 players)
SB checks, griffey24 bets $147.30, SB folds

Final Pot: $134

griffey24 wins $426.60 (net +$212.30)

SB lost $67


6)
This one was the worst. Villain was 3betting something like 35%, madness. One hand I caught him bluffing in a 3b pot and another hand I called AK oop to his 3b cause we were deep and he won on QJxxK board, but he saw that I was capable of having AK there oop (if he decided to check). If I hadn't shown AK oop in a 3b pot once already, I'd never run a bluff on this type of board. $105 avoidable this hand.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
griffey24 (UTG) ($200) 100bb
CO ($780.02) 390bb
BTN ($364.15) 182bb
SB ($483) 242bb
BB ($211.93) 106bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) griffey24 is UTG
griffey24 raises to $6, CO raises to $14, 3 folds, griffey24 calls $8

Flop: ($31, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, CO bets $16, griffey24 raises to $45, CO calls $29

Turn: ($121, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $60, CO raises to $250, griffey24 folds

Final Pot: $241

CO wins $618 (net +$309)

griffey24 lost $119



More sizing hands

7)
Sizing to induce vs an aggro villain. This is the same villain as hand 6, and took place before hand 6.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($377.15) 189bb
UTG+1 ($217.45) 109bb
CO ($239) 120bb
BTN ($229.63) 115bb
griffey24 (SB) ($321) 161bb
BB ($857.97) 429bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
4 folds, griffey24 raises to $6, BB raises to $15, griffey24 raises to $40, BB calls $25

Flop: ($80, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $25, BB raises to $50, griffey24 calls $25

Turn: ($180, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BB bets $90, griffey24 goes all-in $231, BB folds

Final Pot: $360

griffey24 wins $639 (net +$318)

BB lost $180


8)
I like a small sizing here in a spot where villain is liable to bluff raise us, and a spot where we are strong enough to play back to a raise.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($311.70) 78bb
UTG+1 ($718) 180bb
CO ($432) 108bb
BTN ($410.10) 103bb
SB ($869) 217bb
griffey24 (BB) ($397) 99bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
2 folds, CO raises to $12, 2 folds, griffey24 raises to $45, CO calls $33

Flop: ($92, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $25, CO folds

Final Pot: $92

griffey24 wins $139 (net +$69)

CO lost $45


9)
This hand is a standard type spot. Villain is a reg. No point betting more than we need to on the flop. I feel like people very rarely go for flop c/r these days, and if I knew villain did I would sometimes just check this back.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($416.10) 104bb
UTG+1 ($801) 200bb
griffey24 (CO) ($400.50) 100bb
BTN ($394.80) 99bb
SB ($378) 95bb
BB ($400) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $12, griffey24 calls $12, 3 folds

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, griffey24 bets $12, UTG+1 folds

Final Pot: $30

griffey24 wins $52.50 (net +$28.50)

UTG+1 lost $12


Profits on year: $2.1k
Avoidable losses on year: $735

If I'm posting too many hands let me know. I'd rather post an amount that people will reasonably look at, and get something from!

1 - you most certainly had the best hand here, he prob had some broadways that peeled b/c of the small flop cbet. Seems fine actually.
2- His range seems like 33-99 to me. Because its BvB I feel like people will be reluctant to fold here. I do like it on a spade river or Q,K,A, or 8.
3- yikes, fold everywhere!
4- I like the small sizings in general, but on boards with draws where you're also OOP, I think you should bet a bit bigger. There's not much money left behind, but this is the one hand I'd be really really happy just calling with instead, on turn.
5- Its fun to induce with hands you can shove over with
6- They c/f so much here.

Alex - you're confusing me with the hand numberings, the hands have numbers! haha

The AK hand, if I call turn the pot is 360 and the river is like 130 behind. It doesn't seem like a good spot to call with so little left behind?

The 22 hand - you're folding to practically a min 3-bet with a pair? Calling $8 with like $185 behind...?

who starts a post with hand #4? lol

AK hand: yea there's not much left and not that likely for him to bluff, but we just crush the board though, and I feel like he'd bet bigger with a draw anyways. And we block the A for TJ just in case. He might still bluff, on a club, 9, A.

22: ok pf is fine given odds, but post is brutal, your two outs aren't even clean and no backdoors.

They are numbered from the beginning of the blog!

Originally Posted by griffey24

Courtie - yep entire range. Well certainly entire bluff range and value range. Maybe there are some in between hands like 55-99,78ss type stuff that I may take a differently line with.

The examples you've shown a very small cbet are in 3bet pots where stacks are more shallow (so it makes a lot more sense to bet smaller). Do you also sometimes bet this small in pots where there is only a standard raise and stacks are deeper, or does the size just become like the 77 hand (where it's just slightly less than half pot)?

Are opponents trying to adjust to small cbets by calling more often? If so, are you finding that you have to double or triple barrel much more often than if you were cbetting larger?

Hey man, good luck this year. Will be following along.

have fun with this op! I'll be reading it for sure.
Jumps out that you might be over-estimating the cost of your leaks by a) ignoring when they make you money, b) shania implications, c)etc. But obviously they're worth looking at.
I like that you're playing with post-flop betsizing in 3b pots. A few years ago nutsinho had this as one of the topics in his essay competition to win coaching. Looking back i'm kinda embarrassed by my attempt at this topic, but i've thought about it a lot since then. Nice to read these ideas been implemented and expanded. Cool. Non-standard bet-sizing confuses people...

Originally Posted by donkbee

The examples you've shown a very small cbet are in 3bet pots where stacks are more shallow (so it makes a lot more sense to bet smaller). Do you also sometimes bet this small in pots where there is only a standard raise and stacks are deeper, or does the size just become like the 77 hand (where it's just slightly less than half pot)?

Are opponents trying to adjust to small cbets by calling more often? If so, are you finding that you have to double or triple barrel much more often than if you were cbetting larger?

I agree it's easier to bet smaller in 3bet pots due to the shallower stacks, since you're still able to get it in by the river.

I'll try to find some single raised pot hands with small bet sizing. I'd say there are definitely some spots where small bets work well. This would especially be true on dry boards and when we're IP. Small sizing also works well on rivers in big pots when you're trying to induce.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Hey man, good luck this year. Will be following along.

Good luck on the chase to a mill!

Originally Posted by daven

have fun with this op! I'll be reading it for sure.
Jumps out that you might be over-estimating the cost of your leaks by a) ignoring when they make you money, b) shania implications, c)etc. But obviously they're worth looking at.
I like that you're playing with post-flop betsizing in 3b pots. A few years ago nutsinho had this as one of the topics in his essay competition to win coaching. Looking back i'm kinda embarrassed by my attempt at this topic, but i've thought about it a lot since then. Nice to read these ideas been implemented and expanded. Cool. Non-standard bet-sizing confuses people...

Yah I don't mind over-estimating the impact of my avoidable losses and treating it as a worst case scenario. Also I think people under-estimate the importance of bet sizing. Proper sizing in hands can certainly be the difference between hands going vs not going as planned.

Played decently today. Was a pretty crazy session, 3betting 11% with tons of ppl seemingly calling every 3bet. Lot's of swings for sure. Ended up down $230, with variance beating me down a bit.

Avoidable Losses

Total avoidable losses around $575.

10)
Villain and i have been battling a ton. He's been calling lots of 3bets, and raising tons of flops over my small cbets. I've been jamming strong hands over him, and he's seen a few strong hands.

I really don't like my river sizing. I think I should either give up, shove river, or bet very very small just to take him off KQ/QT/T8 or some other FD's.

My sizing is too big for getting rid of his air, but too small for getting folds of Jx. Avoidable losses: $135.


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($416.50) 104bb
CO ($649) 162bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($435) 109bb
SB ($837) 209bb
BB ($400) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BTN
2 folds, griffey24 raises to $10, 1 fold, BB calls $6

Flop: ($22, 2 players)
BB checks, griffey24 bets $10, BB raises to $38, griffey24 calls $28

Turn: ($98, 2 players)
BB bets $66, griffey24 calls $66

River: ($230, 2 players)
BB checks, griffey24 bets $135, BB calls $135

Final Pot: $500
BB shows

griffey24 shows


BB wins $497 (net +$248)

griffey24 lost $249


11)
Villain in this hand has played pretty straightforward so far. Based on his turn timing and sizing I really don't like this shove. He felt strong to me. I should be calling this turn and re-eval river. Avoidable losses: $250

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($759) 190bb
UTG+1 ($232.25) 58bb
CO ($400) 100bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($439.90) 110bb
SB ($425) 106bb
BB ($462.40) 116bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 checks, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $16, 1 fold, BB calls $12, UTG+1 folds

Flop: ($34, 2 players)
BB bets $29, griffey24 calls $29

Turn: ($92, 2 players)
BB bets $74, griffey24 goes all-in $394.90, BB calls $320.90

River: ($881.80, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $881.80
griffey24 shows

BB shows


BB wins $884.80 (net +$444.90)

griffey24 lost $439.90


12)
This hand I'm torn about. Cold caller pre is a fish, 44/15 type, so I think he can be wide enough to have me beat here. Think I should be folding this turn shove, especially since he's shoving with a player to act behind. Avoidable losses: $190

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($399.40) 100bb
UTG+1 ($414.30) 104bb
CO ($391.30) 98bb
BTN ($407.10) 102bb
SB ($559.40) 140bb
griffey24 (BB) ($781) 195bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
UTG calls $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, BTN raises to $14, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $40, UTG calls $36, CO folds, BTN calls $26

Flop: ($126, 3 players)
griffey24 bets $35, UTG calls $35, BTN calls $35

Turn: ($231, 3 players)
griffey24 bets $135, UTG goes all-in $324.40, BTN folds, griffey24 calls $189.40



Sizing hands


13)
This hand the flop can go either way. I don't mind calling and letting a bluff continue, or 3betting here. After flatting, this river is a bit weird. I've definitely seen ppl spew here after convincing themselves that they are repping a boat by raising flop and checking back turn. I'm surprised to see the hand he showed up with, and not sure what he would have done had I 3bet the flop.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($630.75) 158bb
BTN ($429.20) 107bb
griffey24 (SB) ($400) 100bb
BB ($225.60) 56bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 4 players) griffey24 is SB
CO raises to $8, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $32, 1 fold, CO calls $24

Flop: ($68, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $18, CO raises to $56, griffey24 calls $38

Turn: ($180, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, CO checks

River: ($180, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $140.95, CO goes all-in $542.75, griffey24 calls $171.05

Final Pot: $804
CO shows


CO wins $1,263.50 (net +$632.75)

griffey24 lost $400


14)
Villain was kinda taggy. This is where flop sizing like this can get you into tough spots. I think after betting so small, he might definitely raise hands like QJ/KQ and maybe even some 78 stuff. This river is a pretty good card because I think all of these draws end up continuing with their hands, so I think a call is ok here?


Board: Th 9d 2s 4s Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.941% 52.94% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 9c8c }
Hand 1: 47.059% 47.06% 00.00% 8 0.00 { TT-99, 2c2d, AhQh, AsQs, KQs, QJs, T9s, 8s7s }


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($228) 114bb
UTG+1 ($211.95) 106bb
CO ($298.45) 149bb
BTN ($197) 99bb
SB ($200) 100bb
griffey24 (BB) ($263.60) 132bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
3 folds, BTN raises to $5, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $20, BTN calls $15

Flop: ($41, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $8, BTN raises to $23, griffey24 calls $15

Turn: ($87, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $44, griffey24 calls $44

River: ($175, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $110, griffey24 calls $110


Profits on year: $1,930
Avoidable losses on year: $1,310

Avoidable losses are definitely too big right now!

Originally Posted by griffey24

13)
This hand the flop can go either way. I don't mind calling and letting a bluff continue, or 3betting here. After flatting, this river is a bit weird. I've definitely seen ppl spew here after convincing themselves that they are repping a boat by raising flop and checking back turn. I'm surprised to see the hand he showed up with, and not sure what he would have done had I 3bet the flop.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($630.75) 158bb
BTN ($429.20) 107bb
griffey24 (SB) ($400) 100bb
BB ($225.60) 56bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 4 players) griffey24 is SB
CO raises to $8, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $32, 1 fold, CO calls $24

Flop: ($68, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $18, CO raises to $56, griffey24 calls $38

Turn: ($180, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, CO checks

River: ($180, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $140.95, CO goes all-in $542.75, griffey24 calls $171.05

Final Pot: $804
CO shows


CO wins $1,263.50 (net +$632.75)

griffey24 lost $400

I think that 3betting the flop is a lot better than b/c. Your range looks a lot stronger if you b/c, so he is less likely to continue with his air. If you 3bet the flop, he might be induced to put in more money with air.

I also think the river has to be a fold. He can't possibly think that he has fold equity and there isn't anything that he jams that you beat.

Originally Posted by griffey24

14)
Villain was kinda taggy. This is where flop sizing like this can get you into tough spots. I think after betting so small, he might definitely raise hands like QJ/KQ and maybe even some 78 stuff. This river is a pretty good card because I think all of these draws end up continuing with their hands, so I think a call is ok here?


Board: Th 9d 2s 4s Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.941% 52.94% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 9c8c }
Hand 1: 47.059% 47.06% 00.00% 8 0.00 { TT-99, 2c2d, AhQh, AsQs, KQs, QJs, T9s, 8s7s }


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($228) 114bb
UTG+1 ($211.95) 106bb
CO ($298.45) 149bb
BTN ($197) 99bb
SB ($200) 100bb
griffey24 (BB) ($263.60) 132bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
3 folds, BTN raises to $5, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $20, BTN calls $15

Flop: ($41, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $8, BTN raises to $23, griffey24 calls $15

Turn: ($87, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $44, griffey24 calls $44

River: ($175, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $110, griffey24 calls $110

I don't like the small bet on this flop. I really don't want my opponent to raise when I have this hand.

Courtie -

KK hand - I think b/3b on the flop doesn't necessarily look stronger, it just looks more polarized. My b/c range is prob very wide on this board (similarly to my 89cc hand) given my sizing. Prob b/c 7x+ on this board.

So my b/3b range is prob overpairs, AT, FD's and complete air.

89cc hand - If you bet bigger you're going to be facing a jam likely with QJ and some KQ as well. Are you b/c or b/f?

Originally Posted by griffey24

Courtie -

KK hand - I think b/3b on the flop doesn't necessarily look stronger, it just looks more polarized.

I didn't say b/3b looks stronger, I said b/c looks stronger. I like b/3b a lot more.

Originally Posted by griffey24

89cc hand - If you bet bigger you're going to be facing a jam likely with QJ and some KQ as well. Are you b/c or b/f?

Depends what else he jams with on a flop like that. But don't you also have this problem if you're betting small? Except you induce a wider range to raise, which makes playing the rest of this hand a complete guessing game.

I would rather check the flop than bet the amount you did. Maybe check is just better than bet no matter how much we're betting?

KK
Yah sorry meant to say b/3b is more polarized so it has the stronger part of my range in it generally. I'd say i b/c KK here maybe 20-30% and the rest b/3bet.

So b/c has more of my mid-range hands for sure, especially since there's a FD on flop. I'd be more likely to flat strong OOP on a dry board.

89cc
-this is a tough hand for sure no matter what. This type of spot is a pretty good example of why 3betting these hands leads to headaches :P
-I think if I bet $30ish, he can shove strong draws and strong hands. I think if I bet super small, ppl rarely just outright shove strong hands, but may still shove strong draws. If I bet super small, they may also raise a wider range. I think my flop b/c range has enough QT/JT/KQ type stuff in it to not be badly exploited by bluffs on later streets that have J/Q/K's fall.
-I'm not at all set in stone on small sizing here, so this is good to debate. I'm just kind of trying out small sizings in a lot of my sessions lately and testing out where things work well/don't

Played ok today, but was a very short session. Up $130, but had about $220 avoidable.

Not going to post all the avoidable ones today, but have a few sizing hands that aren't 3bet pots.

Sizing Hands in single raised pots

15)
This hand I cbet very small multi-way. It's a board that is dry enough that I could bet small with very strong hands, without worry of being out-drawn. It's also a board that I think has reasonable strength in barreling vs a range that will flat call such a small bet on the flop, and I can also barrel a turn 6 or 10.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($353.53) 177bb
griffey24 (UTG+1) ($216) 108bb
CO ($210) 105bb
BTN ($406.70) 203bb
SB ($333.40) 167bb
BB ($209) 105bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is UTG+1
UTG calls $2, griffey24 raises to $7, 2 folds, SB calls $6, BB calls $5, UTG calls $5

Flop: ($28, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, griffey24 bets $9, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds

Final Pot: $28

griffey24 wins $44.60 (net +$28.60)

UTG lost $7
SB lost $7
BB lost $7


16)
I like spots like this a lot, where villain has a capped range. On the river I like the small bet for value in itself, because my hand isn't that strong, but given his turn check is strong enough for SOME value. After he raises, it's a nice spot to jam when he's capped and I have no perceived bluffs in my range. My sizing also looks very credibly like a spot where I'm betting small with a flush to induce just this kind of raise and jam.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($384) 96bb
CO ($137.50) 34bb
BTN ($398) 100bb
griffey24 (SB) ($444) 111bb
BB ($394) 99bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is SB
UTG raises to $10, 2 folds, griffey24 calls $8, 1 fold

Flop: ($24, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, UTG bets $18, griffey24 calls $18

Turn: ($60, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, UTG checks

River: ($60, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $10, UTG raises to $60, griffey24 goes all-in $416, UTG folds

Final Pot: $180

griffey24 wins $889 (net +$445)

UTG lost $88


Winnings on year: $2,060
Avoidable losses on year: $1,530

Great blog, keep writing, please.

Played alright today. Was up $497, and had about $300 avoidable, in 1200 hands which isn't so bad.

Avoidable Hands

17)
Villain in this hand is a big fish whale 52/5/1.8 type, so I hate this turn jam. I should just take the odds he's giving me. If anything I'd say passivey regs might take min raise lines for cheap showdowns but not fish.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($439) 110bb
UTG+1 ($141.80) 35bb
CO ($599.20) 150bb
BTN ($496.40) 124bb
griffey24 (SB) ($446.50) 112bb
BB ($327.20) 82bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
4 folds, griffey24 raises to $12, BB calls $8

Flop: ($24, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $12, BB calls $12

Turn: ($48, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $35, BB raises to $70, griffey24 goes all-in $422.50, BB calls $233.20

River: ($654.40, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $654.40
griffey24 shows

BB shows


BB wins $651.40 (net +$324.20)

griffey24 collects $238.60 (net -$207.90)

Hands for analysis

18)
I'm pretty lost on this turn spot. I can't tell if PFR is huge (though I block most huge hands but JJ), or thinking that fish is monkey jamming and his AK is good or something. PFR is taggy, on the tightish side.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($273.80) 137bb
griffey24 (UTG+1) ($558.50) 279bb
CO ($211) 106bb
BTN ($330.15) 165bb
SB ($124.87) 62bb
BB ($228.75) 114bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is UTG+1
UTG raises to $6, griffey24 calls $6, 2 folds, SB calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($20, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $14, griffey24 calls $14, SB raises to $40, UTG calls $26, griffey24 calls $26

Turn: ($140, 3 players)
SB bets $78.87, UTG calls $78.87, griffey24 ??


19)
I have been riding villain hard. My 3bet this session is about 12.7%, and have def been active on his tables. Is anyone getting it in earlier? River bluff?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($379.95) 190bb
UTG+1 ($316.50) 158bb
CO ($196) 98bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($304) 152bb
SB ($201) 101bb
BB ($203) 102bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $18, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $12

Flop: ($39, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, griffey24 bets $25, UTG+1 raises to $60, griffey24 calls $35

Turn: ($159, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $60, griffey24 calls $60

River: ($279, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, griffey24 ??


Hand 20)
I think the one good thing about small sizing in 3bet pots, is that ppl start calling down pretty light overall. It also tips off their hand strength when they are happy calling small bets instead of raising, but then suddenly want to bet when you check to them. Makes their range pretty polarized on this river I think.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($1,148.70) 287bb
CO ($684.20) 171bb
BTN ($362) 91bb
griffey24 (SB) ($402.30) 101bb
BB ($221.45) 55bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is SB
2 folds, BTN raises to $8, griffey24 raises to $32, 1 fold, BTN calls $24

Flop: ($68, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $16, BTN calls $16

Turn: ($100, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $35, BTN calls $35

River: ($170, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $75, griffey24 calls $75

Final Pot: $320
BTN shows

griffey24 shows


griffey24 wins $317 (net +$159)

BTN lost $158


Winnings on year: $2,560 (6100 hands)
Avoidable on year: $1,830

Been playing very well so far in 2013, and I think this blog is helping keep me accountable. I think I played my best session in several years today in terms of focus and not making mistakes.

Up $701 today, and $0 avoidable losses that I can tell. Also not too many interesting spots. Most hands my dynamic and image was paying off, and I was reading flow pretty well.

Been running 23/19 this month with an 11% 3bet. I think those are good numbers for me, pretty tight overall but very aggro. Not cold-calling very much. The one spot I might get exploited is that I'm folding to 60% of 4bets, but we'll see how that plays out.

Not too many interesting hands from today, but here are a couple:

A few hands


21)
Villain and I have been battling a fair bit. I 3bet him earlier with AK and he called AQ oop and c/c a low flop with AQ and I won at showdown. This is a spot where I think his flop peeling range is wide enough that if I bet small I have to double, or my flop bet is spew.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($647) 162bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($525.50) 131bb
SB ($346.80) 87bb
BB ($223.60) 56bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 4 players) griffey24 is BTN
CO raises to $12, griffey24 raises to $36, 2 folds, CO calls $24

Flop: ($78, 2 players)
CO checks, griffey24 bets $35, CO calls $35

Turn: ($148, 2 players)
CO checks, griffey24 bets $70, CO folds

Final Pot: $148

griffey24 wins $286 (net +$145)

CO lost $71


22)
This hand is probably the most questionable hand of my session. Villain is very aggro spazzy type. If I'm going to be cbetting this small in 3bet pots, I have to be able to take some stands in good spots. My turn shove I think is pretty merged, I wouldn't be surprised getting called by like 99+ sometimes and FD's other times, or maybe even AJ/AQ or something.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($499) 125bb
CO ($160.10) 40bb
BTN ($760) 190bb
griffey24 (SB) ($408) 102bb
BB ($433) 108bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is SB
2 folds, BTN raises to $8, griffey24 raises to $32, 1 fold, BTN calls $24

Flop: ($68, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $18, BTN raises to $60, griffey24 raises to $150, BTN calls $90

Turn: ($368, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $226, BTN folds

Final Pot: $368

griffey24 wins $817 (net +$409)

BTN lost $182


Winnings on year: $3,260 (7800 hands)
Avoidable on year: $1,830

Played a pretty long session today, and it was the first somewhat difficult session of the year. Think people were catching on to my rampant folding to 4bets, cause I was getting 4bet a ton this session.

Down $750 this session, which wasn't so bad given I was down like $1800 at one point.

I'm going to keep posting avoidable losses hands for my own good, but people should chime in on other types of hands they want to see (as opposed to bet sizing hands). Let me know! Also feel free to reply to hands I post even if you don't play those stakes. Feels like I'm talking to myself right now

Avoidable losses for the session $500.

Avoidable Losses

23)
This hand I'm counting as $150 avoidable. On the river, it's obviously an avoidable play but I think given his sizing and that I block JT, he folds a TON here. Though it's important for me to make a note that he's capable of betting so small with such a strong hand, cause most ppl really make their hand faceup there with the sizing.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($677.60) 169bb
UTG+1 ($1,141.60) 285bb
griffey24 (CO) ($517) 129bb
BTN ($401) 100bb
SB ($422) 106bb
BB ($521.50) 130bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $12, griffey24 calls $12, 3 folds

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $22, griffey24 calls $22

Turn: ($74, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $38, griffey24 calls $38

River: ($150, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $76, griffey24 goes all-in $445, UTG+1 calls $369

Final Pot: $1,040
UTG+1 shows

griffey24 shows


UTG+1 wins $1,037 (net +$520)

griffey24 lost $517


24)
This one I dislike, partially cause villain is a huge fish (which I didn't know entirely at the time of this hand), and I just don't like my turn sizing. If I'm going to run a triple here I need to size turn a lot smaller (to leave more left on the river, and also have his river range be wider).
Avoidable losses $165.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($168) 84bb
UTG+1 ($489.62) 245bb
CO ($304.85) 152bb
BTN ($206) 103bb
griffey24 (SB) ($196) 98bb
BB ($229) 115bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
2 folds, CO raises to $5, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $20, 1 fold, CO calls $15

Flop: ($42, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $13, CO calls $13

Turn: ($68, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $45, CO calls $45

River: ($158, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $118, CO calls $118

Final Pot: $394
CO shows

griffey24 shows


CO wins $391 (net +$195)

griffey24 lost $196


Bet sizing

25)
This is just a random "people do dumb stuff when you bet small" kinda spot. River is obv close, given I'm likely chopping with a lot of his range as well, but his timing just didn't make sense.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($223.17) 112bb
UTG+1 ($375.20) 188bb
CO ($288.65) 144bb
BTN ($200) 100bb
SB ($539) 270bb
griffey24 (BB) ($197) 99bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
3 folds, BTN raises to $5, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $20, BTN calls $15

Flop: ($41, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $12, BTN calls $12

Turn: ($65, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $16, BTN calls $16

River: ($97, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $72, griffey24 calls $72

Final Pot: $241
griffey24 shows

BTN shows


griffey24 wins $238 (net +$118)

BTN lost $120


26)
This hand I had pretty good reads on villain. So far he's been raising all flops with top pairs and strong hands, so he'd for sure be raising a strong hand here. My turn plan was to c/r him here and he made my life even easier betting so small. On the river I think I'm ahead of his range that would play this way (not raise flop, b/c so small on turn), that I just went to bluff catch.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($482.50) 241bb
griffey24 (UTG+1) ($287.60) 144bb
CO ($194.80) 97bb
BTN ($361.25) 181bb
SB ($210) 105bb
BB ($197) 99bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is UTG+1
1 fold, griffey24 raises to $6, CO calls $6, 3 folds

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $10, CO calls $10

Turn: ($35, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, CO bets $13, griffey24 raises to $40, CO calls $27

River: ($115, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, CO bets $58, griffey24 calls $58

Final Pot: $231
griffey24 shows

CO shows


griffey24 wins $228 (net +$114)

CO lost $114


Winnings on the year: $2,600 (12k hands)
Avoidable losses on the year: $2,330

on the make imo

KT hand seems bad to me, have outs when u do this no? You seem to choose weird hands to run bluffs with
A9, KQ and TT seem good.

How do you still have so many avoidable losses? It should be close to 0 for most of your sessions, especially since that's the <goal> this year.

It does seem like a lot of avoidable losses, doesn't it!

Well the one thing is that there are probably some hands that I should be counting as negative avoidable losses (ie: I peeled a meh 4bet, and then won $500 by stacking them) or something, but i'm not ever subtracting from the avoidable. So that number is always perpetually going up.

I suppose I could start subtracting from it.... hmmm

If you meh peel a 4bet for $60 then flop bottom set and stack an overpair for $500 are you counting that as $500 avoidable losses or $60?

Subtracting it would defeat the point of avoidable losses, because if you ran good but did stuff you considered -EV then they'd go down not up

should be 60$ unless u compound it with more avoidable losses postflop

substracting makes no sense

What if I peeled a 4bet, and got it all in behind for $500 on the flop. If I brick the turn/river, I count that as $500 avoidable... but what if I bink the river?

Thus far I've just not been counting the situation I win there, but should I be subtracting that $500 from total avoidable cause I binked? Should I add $500 to my avoidable total cause the play in itself was bad, and I will generally lose? Should I incorporate my equity and add the expected losses to avoidable? I suppose the expected losses is probably the most accurate method.

Any play you think is bad should go in subtractable losses IMO. Not necessarily getting it in behind, just playing bad. So if peeling a 4bet is bad, that goes as an avoidable loss. If you then flop bottom set and play it perfectly, any money on flop/turn/river aren't avoidable losses - they're just normal plays. Never subtract anything from it and let it keep growing.

Expected losses would be most accurate but I like avoidable losses as a 100% figure - it's the worst case scenario, it's easier to calculate and a bigger number will inspire you not to do it more.

Pascal - yah I agree, thanks for the comments. I'll start counting all avoidable losses in a hand, and if I luckbox then I agree it shouldn't contribute to avoidable losses in either direction.

Bigger number definitely motivates more!

Originally Posted by griffey24

17)
Villain in this hand is a big fish whale 52/5/1.8 type, so I hate this turn jam. I should just take the odds he's giving me. If anything I'd say passivey regs might take min raise lines for cheap showdowns but not fish.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($439) 110bb
UTG+1 ($141.80) 35bb
CO ($599.20) 150bb
BTN ($496.40) 124bb
griffey24 (SB) ($446.50) 112bb
BB ($327.20) 82bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
4 folds, griffey24 raises to $12, BB calls $8

Flop: ($24, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $12, BB calls $12

Turn: ($48, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $35, BB raises to $70, griffey24 goes all-in $422.50, BB calls $233.20

River: ($654.40, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $654.40
griffey24 shows

BB shows


BB wins $651.40 (net +$324.20)

griffey24 collects $238.60 (net -$207.90)

Hands for analysis

e.g. this hand, I think you count the whole pot as a an avoidable loss. Pre, flop and turn bets aren't avoidable losses - that's all played fine. It's the shove over the turn minraise that you feel is avoidable. So you want to add just (Turn Shove) - (Preflop, Flop and Initial Turn bets) and put that into avoidable losses.

It won't be perfect, because in some hands where you make a mistake you're only taking a slightly -EV option instead of a slightly +EV option, but if you want to add up all the money you put in "playing badly" IMO this is the best way

GL for 2013 griffey! Also consider posting hands in shnl sometimes, we could use some traffic...

Originally Posted by pocketfours

GL for 2013 griffey! Also consider posting hands in shnl sometimes, we could use some traffic...

Thanks P4's, will do!

Today was a crazy session, and I really have no idea how to calculate avoidable for this session at all. I'm going to have to post some hands and see what people say about them.

Need HELP with some hands!

27)
UTG+1 in this hand is a mega fish, such that I would expect CO to try and isolate the fish on the flop with most of his strong hands. Turn do ppl ever show up with 88-TT type stuff here? Axdd / 5xdd / 6xdd /4xdd?


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
griffey24 (UTG) ($400) 100bb
UTG+1 ($966.20) 242bb
CO ($404) 101bb
BTN ($394) 99bb
SB ($492.10) 123bb
BB ($1,326.90) 332bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is UTG
griffey24 raises to $12, UTG+1 calls $12, CO calls $12, 3 folds

Flop: ($42, 3 players)
griffey24 bets $30, UTG+1 calls $30, CO calls $30

Turn: ($132, 3 players)
griffey24 bets $125, UTG+1 folds, CO goes all-in $362, griffey24 ??


28)
Villain in this hand is a reg who is pretty aggro, and generally has a high cbet % (around 75%). I haven't seen him c/c flop often. I would generally expect most regs to cbet something like 66 here, or 56, though maybe not. River call..?


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($639.95) 160bb
UTG+1 ($436.60) 109bb
griffey24 (CO) ($714.80) 179bb
BTN ($156) 39bb
SB ($391.60) 98bb
BB ($184) 46bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $12, griffey24 calls $12, 3 folds

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, griffey24 bets $22, UTG+1 calls $22

Turn: ($74, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, griffey24 bets $56, UTG+1 calls $56

River: ($186, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, griffey24 bets $140, UTG+1 goes all-in $346.60, griffey24 calls ??

29)
Villain in this hand is a very meh kinda bad reg as far as I'm concerned. He calls a lot of flops IP on btn, and raises tons of flops with top pairs and stuff. He has raised a lot of my small bets in 3b pots over the last couple weeks, and I've folded a fair amount. The way he plays I expect most over pairs to raise this flop. River he snap jammed.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($195) 98bb
UTG+1 ($248.80) 124bb
CO ($254) 127bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($197) 99bb
SB ($400.80) 200bb
BB ($200) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $18, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $12

Flop: ($39, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, griffey24 bets $14, UTG+1 calls $14

Turn: ($67, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, griffey24 bets $18, UTG+1 calls $18

River: ($103, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $147, griffey24 call?


30)
Villain and I don't have too many hands together. He's a reg though, and my image is probably very aggro. My 3bet is very high. Should I bet the turn?

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($900.70) 225bb
CO ($925.90) 231bb
BTN ($426) 107bb
SB ($318.60) 80bb
griffey24 (BB) ($453.30) 113bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BB
UTG raises to $12, CO calls $12, 2 folds, griffey24 calls $8

Flop: ($38, 3 players)
griffey24 checks, UTG checks, CO bets $23, griffey24 raises to $60, UTG folds, CO calls $37

Turn: ($158, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, CO bets $89, griffey24 calls $89

River: ($336, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, CO bets $292, griffey24 ??


I'm not going to say the results of this session, cause if I'm up or down a lot that may bias the opinions.

1- a spot where id actually rather make a smaller turn bet rather than a big one. I'd fold.
2-fold pre, fold river
3-seems like quads, id call but can't justify it other than it seems like quads or air given he can't have too many 6x 4x.
4-don't like your c/r since he's utg. J on turn means you're now crushed pretty much (dont think too many ppl open AT utg nowadays). I'd just go c/c c/c, but as played fold turn

Originally Posted by Alexos

1- a spot where id actually rather make a smaller turn bet rather than a big one. I'd fold.
2-fold pre, fold river
3-seems like quads, id call but can't justify it other than it seems like quads or air given he can't have too many 6x 4x.
4-don't like your c/r since he's utg. J on turn means you're now crushed pretty much (dont think too many ppl open AT utg nowadays). I'd just go c/c c/c, but as played fold turn

2. Easy fold on river? If we bet smaller ($110ish) would you be more tempted to call?

4. It's not PFR that I c/r, it's preflop cold caller. Does that change anything?

2- sry thought club flush got there. i always call here and lose to 56/66. ppl that c/c at all on these boards will do it with hands just like those
4-Don't think so, since calling ranges should be tighter than opening ranges right?

I think this past weekend was a valuable weekend for me, and the overall goal of this blog to minimize avoidable losses.

I ran very bad this weekend, $2k+ under EV, and ended up losing around $2,550. But way more importantly is that I let the bad variance lead to way too many additional avoidable losses.

When I start losing all-ins when I get it in ahead/way ahead, I get into this dumb mode in other spots at showdowns. This is the "what ridiculous hand could you possibly have that beats me here" mode, and call to see the ridiculousness, and to validate that this session is in fact as absurd a variance beating as I think it is.

This is nothing new, as anyone that has followed my other blogs will know. But I'm glad this happened early in the year. The goal for the year is to minimize avoidable losses, with the KEY goal for the year being to minimize avoidable losses in BAD sessions or RUN BAD sessions. That is when it is the hardest to do, and also when it is the most important.

In the moment of a bad session when I'm facing a big bet or big shove, all I see is "he's only repping these two hands, that's all he can have. Everyone else keeps hitting, no way he has this too", whereas after the fact I see clearly "he's not bluffing in this spot for these XYZ reasons, regardless of how narrow he reps".

I think any time I'm going to make a big b/c, or big call in a difficult spot I need to ask myself these questions:
1. Does my range LOOK strong?
2. Can my range BE strong?
3. Can their range BE strong?
4. Do they expect me to fold?

I'm going to try and actively think about those four questions in tough spots.

The distinction between 1. and 2. being:
-if I triple barrel 1/3rd pot, I don't look strong but I could be strong.
-If I'm 3betting 10% and flat CO on Btn, and raise AK3 rainbow IP, I look strong but I can't really BE strong (would 3bet AK/KK/AA pre)
-if I check back a flush card on the turn and bet 1/3rd pot on the river brick when checked to, I don't look strong AND I can't really be strong
-if i double barrel from EP into two players (including one fish), I look strong and can be strong.
etc. etc

The major point being, that if both point 1. and 2. are YES then the chances of being bluffed are much smaller. If 1. and 2. are NO then the chances of being bluffed are much higher, and this needs to be considered.

This is all mostly straight forward, but I'm hoping that actively thinking about those four questions all the time will let me stay more focused when my brain might be influenced by variance.


Winnings on the year: $50 (sigh - 14k hands)
Avoidable losses on the year: $3,330

INSERT TURNING POINT!

Bluff Catching

As a continuation to my above post, this is an example of a hand where we are essentially bluff catching.

1. Does my range LOOK strong? NO
2. Can my range BE strong? NO
3. Can their range BE strong? YES
4. Do they expect me to fold? YES

I'd say in this hand, my range looks meh strong after the flop check back, and definitely most villains would assume my range to be capped. (ie: not being strong, because I very rarely have flushes).

Their range can also be strong in theory, and they likely expect me to fold. All of these factors together put me on the fence about wanting to call. That being said, he would also play a flush this way so it still leans me towards a fold. The only thing that pushes me over the top here is an additional question: "Does he expect me to bet the river?"

I am much more likely to b/f rivers to pressure if I perceive that villain will expect me to bet. If they expect me to bet, then it makes a lot more sense for them to go for a value c/bomb. In this case I really don't see why he'd expect me to be betting Kx or 78 after his turn c/r, so I look this up.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($206) 103bb
UTG+1 ($354) 177bb
CO ($610.65) 305bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($204) 102bb
SB ($198) 99bb
BB ($367.70) 184bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is BTN
3 folds, griffey24 raises to $5, 1 fold, BB calls $3

Flop: ($11, 2 players)
BB checks, griffey24 checks

Turn: ($11, 2 players)
BB checks, griffey24 bets $7, BB raises to $32, griffey24 calls $25

River: ($75, 2 players)
BB checks, griffey24 bets $50, BB goes all-in $330.70, griffey24 calls $117

Final Pot: $409.00
griffey24 shows

BB shows


griffey24 wins $406 (net +$202)

BB collects $327.40 (net -$40.30)

pretty much top of your range so yeah nh!!!

gl and A-game from now on

Originally Posted by griffey24

I think any time I'm going to make a big b/c, or big call in a difficult spot I need to ask myself these questions:
1. Does my range LOOK strong?
2. Can my range BE strong?
3. Can their range BE strong?
4. Do they expect me to fold?

I'm going to try and actively think about those four questions in tough spots.

Thanks for posting this, would love to see moar examples of this in action. GL for 2013

Originally Posted by Alexos

pretty much top of your range so yeah nh!!!

Yaah, that being said, if he open shoves the river I think I'm in a very tough spot. I'd probably end up folding. Only b/c here because I going for a value c/r doesn't make sense.

Seem ok? Fold to a turn shove if he leads, but call a c/bomb?

yeah its somewhat easier here, a 2x pot river shove is tougher to call.

Was reading a 2p2 thread where OP was asking the major differences between ssnl and msnl, and shoota responded with something that is still very representative for me:

"One of the biggest differences is discipline. Work on tilting and/or making good quits. I've seem a ton of 100nl players grind 4k hand sessions when they're down and never do that when they're up."

This fully describes my play. Maybe not 4k sessions when I'm down, but definitely 1.7k-2.5k hand sessions when I'm down (2-3 hours) compared to 800-1.5k hand sessions when I'm up (1-2 hours).

Is this a good or severely dumb / limiting rule?:
If at any point at the 500 hand, 1k hand, 1.5k hand mark .. etc, I find myself down more than $700 (which generally represents about 2 buyins), I must quit my session for at least an hour.

I was looking at my sessions so far this month and if I would have implemented the above stop loss method:

Jan 13 -730 instead of -2.1k
Jan 12 session 1 -700 instead of -720
Jan 12 session 2 -900 instead of -400
Jan 6 -1200 instead of down -230

The other sessions I never hit the stop loss. So I would have lost an extra $600 over the month if I implemented this! I wish there was an easy way to go through all my sessions in my database and calculate this!

Good or bad stop loss?

I was reading an old article from THIS IS SPENDAAAAAAAAA yesterday and saw this:

Originally Posted by spenda

Tilt Control – Phil Ivey

This may surprise those who do not know it, but Phil Ivey is the king of “stop losses” online. Ivey refuses to play after losing a certain number of buy-ins which can be as low as two. This commitment to only playing when winning is a big part of why Ivey has been the number one earner in online poker history despite playing about 10% as much as players such as Dwan, Galfond, and CTS. Ivey does not succumb to tilt, he merely turns off the computer and comes back at a different time when he is more focused.

Taken from: Building an Unbeatable Poker Player

Your stop loss sounds good to me

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

I was reading an old article from THIS IS SPENDAAAAAAAAA yesterday and saw this:



Taken from: Building an Unbeatable Poker Player

Your stop loss sounds good to me

Nice, that's a good article. I have no problem being in the same category as Ivey

I think I might try and actually look into previous months and try to estimate how much I would have saved / extra lost if I had implemented this a while ago.

Might take a while but we'll see how it goes.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Nice, that's a good article. I have no problem being in the same category as Ivey

I think I might try and actually look into previous months and try to estimate how much I would have saved / extra lost if I had implemented this a while ago.

Might take a while but we'll see how it goes.

dont waste your time lol.

I think you play when losing because often you manage to get it back to even somehow, or at least whenever we talk. You know I'm a huuuge advocate of keeping playing when up, and keeping sessions short when you're down. There's just so many reasons for it, not only because you play better when you're up vs down, but also you get a psychological edge vs other regs during that sesh. I don't think it has to be a strict amount of stop loss, sometimes it might be half a buyin, other times 4 buyins, so long as your winning sessions eventually end up being longer than your losing ones.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I think I might try and actually look into previous months and try to estimate how much I would have saved / extra lost if I had implemented this a while ago.

I don't know if this program is common knowledge, but I downloaded a program called tilt breaker after Alex mentioned it to me a couple days ago.

The program costs $50 which I haven't paid for yet, but there is a 15 day trial. I haven't used it "in session" yet, but I think its useful for anyone with a large sample of hands to just download.

Using the trial you can run different reports on your database. How your winrate changes based on : 1. the duration of your session 2. how much you've won in a session 3. how many hands you've played in a session.

For each of these reports it recommends an ideal range for you, so that you can input alerts or quit points into the program. I haven't tested this yet, but once you reach some quit points it will either alert you or if you're using stars/FT etc you can have it just auto close your tables when you're done the current hand.

I'll try testing it out today and let ppl know how it goes. I think regardless of if you buy it the reports are interesting.

It's interesting for me that always 0 hands into a session my winrate is very very negative and increases linearly up to a point and then slowly drops off from there and then tanks at some number of hands into a session. So I clearly do spewy things right at the beginning (which I'm aware of - I usually try to rampant 3b ppl early to create a dynamic), but interesting to see in winrate. I also clearly tank right at end of sessions, which makes sense for all the sessions I quit right after I lose a buyin or two at the end.