Originally Posted by AceKing

I don't know.

It all is situational to me. It depends on who is raising, how good they are, their position, how strong my pair is and how many callers there are. Set hands tend to be very profitbale, especially when an Ace flops with your set (say I have 66 and the flop is A,J,6). Also, if the raise is kind of high, like $2.50 or so, but 3 players call, I will take a chance with a hand like 33 or 44 on the chance of a big payout if it hits.

Originally Posted by AceKing

I don't know.

It all is situational to me. It depends on who is raising, how good they are, their position, how strong my pair is and how many callers there are. Set hands tend to be very profitbale, especially when an Ace flops with your set (say I have 66 and the flop is A,J,6). Also, if the raise is kind of high, like $2.50 or so, but 3 players call, I will take a chance with a hand like 33 or 44 on the chance of a big payout if it hits.

Originally Posted by AceKing

I don't know.

It all is situational to me. It depends on who is raising, how good they are, their position, how strong my pair is and how many callers there are. Set hands tend to be very profitbale, especially when an Ace flops with your set (say I have 66 and the flop is A,J,6). Also, if the raise is kind of high, like $2.50 or so, but 3 players call, I will take a chance with a hand like 33 or 44 on the chance of a big payout if it hits.

Originally Posted by AceKing

I don't know.

It all is situational to me. It depends on who is raising, how good they are, their position, how strong my pair is and how many callers there are. Set hands tend to be very profitbale, especially when an Ace flops with your set (say I have 66 and the flop is A,J,6). Also, if the raise is kind of high, like $2.50 or so, but 3 players call, I will take a chance with a hand like 33 or 44 on the chance of a big payout if it hits.

Originally Posted by AceKing

I don't know.

It all is situational to me. It depends on who is raising, how good they are, their position, how strong my pair is and how many callers there are. Set hands tend to be very profitbale, especially when an Ace flops with your set (say I have 66 and the flop is A,J,6). Also, if the raise is kind of high, like $2.50 or so, but 3 players call, I will take a chance with a hand like 33 or 44 on the chance of a big payout if it hits.

Originally Posted by AceKing

I don't know.

It all is situational to me. It depends on who is raising, how good they are, their position, how strong my pair is and how many callers there are. Set hands tend to be very profitbale, especially when an Ace flops with your set (say I have 66 and the flop is A,J,6). Also, if the raise is kind of high, like $2.50 or so, but 3 players call, I will take a chance with a hand like 33 or 44 on the chance of a big payout if it hits.

Originally Posted by blackscribe

Reading this thread makes my head hurt.

Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye

That's why the majority of posts on FTR are riddled with abbreviations and on liners. That way people like BigRed can understand them.

Originally Posted by STR8M8

In my opinion you by pass all this bull chit 1.003458675 odds freakin donkey crap. Because lets face it we know who and how many is at are table and we know what the betting patterens have been and it doesent take a rocket scientist to figure out that you are going to have to get lucky to hit your set of quack quacks and if you do its all about getting paid..... Chances are if you hit your set on flop you are going to have best hand and if it looks like it is dangerous waters after you hit your set, such as, suited and or all connected flop then you better either pushem out of pot or hope you dont get split. Me, especially on dangerous flop like that I am going all in, if my opponent wants to risk his stack on the come , so be it, im committed! I know it is nice to know the odds,but it is nicer to know your cards and who you are up against. Then you throw in your math and I wish upon a star my 2&2 trips! LOL!

Originally Posted by KY_Ace

What if the guy is raising with 57 suited and bluffs you out every time you miss your set and gives you no action when you hit?

or

You have 66, the flop is A96 and the guy had KK? how much do you make here?

You need a very good board or a very dumb opponent to double up, I think it's very easy to overestimate our implied odds with small pockets.

Originally Posted by Kamawoop

If the point of the post is, that it not profitable to call medium/small pocket-pair's with the intention of setting, or folding; then I agree entirely.

However, pocket pairs should be profitable. Preflop raise, pressure the flop. Hit sets occasionally / fold from time-to-time.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Since this has come up a couple times on this board... Please correct any errors, I only have the equivalent of a minor in math. There are a lot of factors not included in this simplistic analysis such as straits, quads, flushes, other pair on board and bluffing.

Situation: You hold a small pair (lets say 22) and another player comes out with a pre-flop raise. You put him on a likely larger pair.

Your plan: Call his pre-flop bet and look for a set. Go nuclear if you get it, otherwise fold.

How much money needs to be left in both of your stacks for this to be profitable, assuming you can hit him up for lots of additional chips if you hit your set? Also assume you can't make the lay down if he makes his set too.

Odds of you not flopping a set if your opponent doesn't have one of your cards (safe assumption if you have 88 or lower)
46/48 = 0.95833333333333333333333333333333
45/47 = 0.95744680851063829787234042553191
44/46 = 0.95652173913043478260869565217391
=
0.87765957446808510638297872340227

Inverse to get odds of flopping a set
1 - 0.87765957446808510638297872340227 =
0.122340425531914893617021276598

or
1 in 8.1739130434782608695652173911537

Odds he doesn't get his set if you do.
45/47 = 0.95744680851063829787234042553191
44/46 = 0.95652173913043478260869565217391
0.91581868640148011100832562442008

Flopping a set and not losing to a better set on the turn + river (doesn't factor in your draw to quads)
43/45 = 0.95555555555555555555555555555556
42/44 = 0.95454545454545454545454545454545
0.91212121212121212121212121212068


Algebra time.
Let:
X is pre-flop betting
Y is post-flop betting
Z is the pot size = 2(X + Y)
we'll assume blinds and limpers cover the rake...


Cost for getting and playing that set is:
8.17 X + Y

You'll pay X for the flop 8.17 times to get your set, then pay Y to get showdown.

Profit on a win:
(0.916) * (0.912) * Z =
0.835 * Z

Odds of them not flopping a set times odds of not getting beat on the turn or river.

Which yields this equation to determine our break even point.
-8.17 X - Y + 0.835 Z = 0
8.17 X + Y = 0.835 Z
8.17 X + Y = 0.835 * 2(X + Y)
8.17 X + Y = 1.670(X + Y)
8.17 X + Y = 1.670 X + 1.670 Y
8.17 X = 1.670 X + 0.670 Y
6.5 X = 0.670 Y
6.5 X = 0.670 Y
9.7 X = Y

Adding in some room for profit and fuge factor, you need at least 10x the pre-flop raise worth of chips in BOTH stacks that you think you can get in the pot if you hit your set to call that bet. You probably can subtract a little for each additional caller, but not quite 1x because of the additional chance of a better 3 of a kind, flush or straight.

Originally Posted by noiqpoker

Stack-size is important. Of course I'm not often gonna play a medium, or low pair against the very tight/min buyin/all-iner who has just unexpectedly made an out-of-position move.

Originally Posted by STR8M8

In my opinion you by pass all this bull chit 1.003458675 odds freakin donkey crap. Because lets face it we know who and how many is at are table and we know what the betting patterens have been and it doesent take a rocket scientist to figure out that you are going to have to get lucky to hit your set of quack quacks and if you do its all about getting paid..... Chances are if you hit your set on flop you are going to have best hand and if it looks like it is dangerous waters after you hit your set, such as, suited and or all connected flop then you better either pushem out of pot or hope you dont get split. Me, especially on dangerous flop like that I am going all in, if my opponent wants to risk his stack on the come , so be it, im committed! I know it is nice to know the odds,but it is nicer to know your cards and who you are up against. Then you throw in your math and I wish upon a star my 2&2 trips! LOL!