I decided to type out a response to the first question. Here it is.
Our opponent seems like he's going to rarely have big pocket pairs or AK in his
range here, but without
reads on what he likes to 3-bet otherwise, it's hard to say outside of that. We can probably be expecting him to
raise some sort of balanced or semi-balanced
range on most boards, and to
call with a lot of medium strength hands; though he is OOP here, so he will probably do this less.
Our
range for opening the CO here without BU or SB
reads will probably be something like broadways,
suited Aces, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s-64s, T9s-54s, 22+ with some minor variation around the edges.
1.
Q 9
6
- This
flop is cool because it's very wet for our typical
range, but not very wet for his. What I mean is that we have a lot of
straight draws (JT, 87, T8 plus tons of gutshots) and lots of broadways with both
backdoor flush and
backdoor straight draws, but it's hard for him to have a huge
range of draws to play around with himself.
He's probably calling as low as
TT and as high as AQ or KQ. That gives a
range (with # of
combos in parenthesis) of something like
QQ(?), 99(6), 66(?), AQ(?), KQ(12), QJ(?),
JJ(?),
TT(6) of the hands he's not folding for the purpose of getting to a
showdown. If we estimate that he'll have about 1 combo of
QQ, 6 of 99, 2 of 66, 8 of AQ, 12 of KQ, 8 of QJ, 5 of
JJ, and 6 of
TT, then the midpoint of his
range is about at the
edge between AQ and KQ. So all the hands AQ+ are probably +EV in a vacuum for us to
value bet.
Since he doesn't have many draws in his
range at all, it's hard for him to add a lot of bluffs before he's spewing. For that reason, I
don't think we have any reason to expect that we will have +EV semibluffs (3-betting) in a vacuum. Moreover, I wouldn't expect him to look to
exploit us by raising a very wide
range without
history, so my 3-betting
range is going to be very unbalanced with the first possible 3-bet bluffing hand being JTs+bdfd.
We could choose to have no 3-betting
range at all. If I chose this plan, then I might lose some minor EV with a hand like AQ that can be more vulnerable to free cards since a K can hit, but I'
m not all that thrilled to
stack off with it on the
flop anyway. With that in mind, I think I would bet/
call with some
range down to about
KK, then bet/
fold down to about KQ or QJ.
On the bluffing end of the betting spectrum, I would expect semi-bluffs with a
gutshot to be +EV in a vacuum, and would be betting all of them along with all OESDs, broadways with a bdfd, and all AK/AJ/AT.
Then I would
check everything else, along with
QQ and some non-zero amount of
AA/AQ/KQ hands so he can't just bet turns and put me in a difficult
spot.