CORONAVIRUS PANIC WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE

[wufwugy]

I don't understand Virginia's shutdown until June 10th. Anybody have any ideas?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't understand Virginia's shutdown until June 10th. Anybody have any ideas?

If you haven't heard, there's a pandemic going on.
The death rates are already astounding. There are mass graves in Italy and Spain.

The US federal response is effectively nothing, and that means the pandemic is going to take longer to manage, and the math models that look realistic to me suggest we're looking at at least 50% of the population getting CV under the most optimistic models (that seem realistic to me).

Just to get a sense of some of the curves we're looking at, and the parameters that matter.




Keep in mind that those models that include adequate testing and quarantine facilities, equipment and staff, are not realistic models for our current situation.

That means that our primary tools to combat this are social distancing and personal hygiene.
Focus on those models and notice that getting a long-term exposure rate below 50% is pretty unlikely.

Notice how "flattening the curve" doesn't shorten the pandemic or lessen it... it lengthens the pandemic by slowing the spread so that healthcare facilities can not be so overwhelmed. We don't know how tall that red line has to go before the gray line represents more and more deaths due to the overloaded system - deaths that could have been recoveries - but we do know that if it gets too high... mass graves are the result.

Hospitals in the US are already having to order refrigerator trucks because they don't have room in their morgues for all the bodies.


June may be optimistic.

[boost]

If you haven't heard, there's a pandemic going on.
The death rates are already astounding. There are mass graves in Italy and Spain.

The US federal response is effectively nothing, and that means the pandemic is going to take longer to manage, and the math models that look realistic to me suggest we're looking at at least 50% of the population getting CV under the most optimistic models (that seem realistic to me).

Just to get a sense of some of the curves we're looking at, and the parameters that matter.




Keep in mind that those models that include adequate testing and quarantine facilities, equipment and staff, are not realistic models for our current situation.

That means that our primary tools to combat this are social distancing and personal hygiene.
Focus on those models and notice that getting a long-term exposure rate below 50% is pretty unlikely.

Notice how "flattening the curve" doesn't shorten the pandemic or lessen it... it lengthens the pandemic by slowing the spread so that healthcare facilities can not be so overwhelmed. We don't know how tall that red line has to go before the gray line represents more and more deaths due to the overloaded system - deaths that could have been recoveries - but we do know that if it gets too high... mass graves are the result.

Hospitals in the US are already having to order refrigerator trucks because they don't have room in their morgues for all the bodies.


June may be optimistic.

Yeah, I haven't seen a reasonable person explain how we're back to some sort of normalcy without a vaccine or effective antiviral treatment, and I haven't seen predictions for either of those landing in the next 3 months.

[Poopadoop]

The US federal response is effectively nothing,

The UK is basically a shitshow too right now. You can't get tested unless you're sick enough to go to hospital.

The gov't keeps promising more tests but not delivering. Their latest claim (debunked) is that there's a shortage of chemicals to make the tests with. Uh, yeah, even if it were true, then maybe you could have thought of that 3 months ago? Meanwhile Germany is showing Europe how it's done, testing > 500k already (from what I've read).

[oskar]

I don't understand Virginia's shutdown until June 10th. Anybody have any ideas?

I don't understand why this isn't nationwide.
I think it comes down to me being incredibly ignorant when it comes to authoritarianism. It seems that there is a political capital to be gained by denying this is happening. Trump has underplayed this every step of the way from saying it's a hoax, to saying this will be over in the next "very short period of time", to saying the churches will be packed by easter. As a result the projection now is 100k deaths as the most positive outcome... but he hasn't lost politically because of it. On the contrary: he has gained popularity.
So to an astonishing number of people this is a strong look. This might go to the core of how authoritarianism works and why it is historically tends to be short-lived.