Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
About the Taleb thing, does the rationale apply on the individual level ("it can't happen to me" seems a whole lot like "it can't happen to society" on different scale)? As far as I can tell, his argument involves costs associated as well as probability of the event. He talks a lot about how terrible GMOs are in part because in the rare event of them being a problem, it basically destroys civilization, and that cost is not accounted for when statisticians discuss GMO.
The level of risk definitely varies depending on whose behalf we are assessing it. On a society level the risk of getting eaten by a shark might be insignificant. For a person diving with great whites daily it's something different. The control measures to alleviate risks should be in harmony with the estimated costs of the risks involved. It makes no sense to implement a control against a risk that costs more annually than what the costs of the risk would be if it realizes. Now, all of this is very simple and easy, assessing the risks thoroughly and accurately enough is where it gets difficult. What price do you put on GMOs destroying civilization? How likely is it to happen? Actually, to my knowledge the prices of GMO goods are determined fully by the markets without direct government involvement, so in theory the costs relating to the possibility for the civilization ending should already be baked in.