Quote Originally Posted by Savy View Post
This is a good analogy, people make far too big of a deal of this & the benefit is minimal. In fact there are lots of places dotted around where people do leave their doors open and strangely enough it doesn't really make all that much difference in terms of crimes. Then you have those people who spend ridiculous sums of money on home security systems to which the cost benefit ratio is hilarious.
Taleb would say something like the bolded is a thin-tailed interpretation of something that is fat-tailed (if I understand his statistics terminology correctly).

To the rest follow the logic through. Stop locking businesses, stop gating urban ones overnight, inform criminals that there is less opportunity cost to committing crime, the Pope or the President doesn't need bulletproof vehicles. We can even take it further: no need for security of any sort.

To the idea that in the real world we see little difference from change, that makes sense because the change is little and there are so many unadjusted for confounding variables.