Vikings, Gods and Giants Game thread

[wufwugy]

i dont have much more to say. just hope rong is a wolf

his play here has been far more honorary wolf than i ever was. if you play a wolfy ass game then you get your wolfy ass lynched. if we're not here to do that, then wtf are we here for?

[JKDS]

i want you to reassess your read on me, ive taken care to consider you and youre frankly being a stubborn shit

villagers are daven hoopy and wuf, maybe rong and possibly you too

that only leaves gabe and rascal

I dont care what you want. I think you're a wolf. Be mad, call me names, claim to be a villa, none of that is convincing me otherwise.

You may have been able to help your case had you been able to give your thoughts on whos a villager quicker. If it was instant, it shows you had thoughts on this. As it stands, I have no idea if you had to reread to make sure things were consistent or if you just werent around.

[wufwugy]

it could be rong gabe and jkds

at least so far, theyre the three whose logics have been the worse on this gameday

[Luco]

I dont care what you want. I think you're a wolf. Be mad, call me names, claim to be a villa, none of that is convincing me otherwise.

You may have been able to help your case had you been able to give your thoughts on whos a villager quicker. If it was instant, it shows you had thoughts on this. As it stands, I have no idea if you had to reread to make sure things were consistent or if you just werent around.

when i asked if you had made up your mind about me all you had to say was yes as it would have saved us both some effort

I dont know why this game has got to me but it has. go fuck yourself if youre villa dude

[wufwugy]

everything jkds says reads like a debater debating something he doesnt believe

[lilrascal]

not only do we deserve to lose if we dont lynch rong, but if rong is a villager, we also deserve to lose. he is about as hyper wolf as it gets. ofc that doesnt mean he's always a wolf, because villagers do dumb things, but if we were to simulate this game a million times, rong would end up wolf the highest percentage of the time

I totally agree with this. Rong is a wolf 99% of the time here.

I don't think I'm wrong on Rong. (I've been wanting to say that since I joined the thread).

bottom line, nobody has shit to go on with regards to lilrascal. dhubs was vacant and rascal has been limited to an artificial posting format. thems the breaks. even if rascal is a wolf, we can never lynch him with the information we have.

luco is highly game solvy. lynching him in this field is atrocious

Not having experience playing with me is not a reason to call me a wolf. If I've been wolfy, then call me out on it, otherwise you're not playing werewolf.

I agree with you on Luco, but I'm still bothered about the triple voter thing. I'll take a look at that later though.

[wufwugy]

day is over in 6 min right?

[JKDS]

4 minutes if I understand time zones.

unlynch luco, lynch hoopy

@wuf: Since when is being active and "game-solvy" ever a legit villa tell on Ftr? Every player, even keybored, was aware of this strategy as a wolf.

[baudib]

YEP

[Luco]

yes, rong gonna die

[wufwugy]

there is a possibility that gabe is just overthinking things. i think he sometimes does that. rong hoopy jkds is still very sensible

i mean cmon, nothing changes the fact that hoops and ronk never mentioned each other

[wufwugy]

4 minutes if I understand time zones.

unlynch luco, lynch hoopy

@wuf: Since when is being active and "game-solvy" ever a legit villa tell on Ftr? Every player, even keybored, was aware of this strategy as a wolf.

i would argue key wasnt game solvy. he was wordy. there's a difference

[lilrascal]

it could be rong gabe and jkds

at least so far, theyre the three whose logics have been the worse on this gameday

I'm agreeing more and more with Wuf. IRL last night I softened my stance on Wuf being a wolf, but his EOD posting looks villa to me.

I'll definitely have to take a reread on Wuf as to why I had him wolfy from my beginning, but that will have to wait until I'm on my computer with my notes.

[wufwugy]

goddammit if rong is villager.

dont make me fly to fucking britland and w0t m8 half the country in search of your barmy ass

[JKDS]

Regardless, every player knows that being helpful is seen as villagery. The only time being gamesolvy is ever something you can trust is if it results in something a wolf would never do

[Luco]

I will likely die tonight so if loki doesnt cinch it you should all follow wuf

gabe is never a villager here

[wufwugy]

I'll definitely have to take a reread on Wuf as to why I had him wolfy from my beginning, but that will have to wait until I'm on my computer with my notes.

fwiw i appear very wolfy to anybody who isnt comfortable with me. my first several games here i was called wolf nonstop

[wufwugy]

fingers crosseddddddddddddddddd

[baudib]

Day is over. 15 mins for corrections.

[Luco]

i think prolly villager

[gabe]

wow just woke up from a suprise nap and about broke my laptop trying to see if i slept through some crucial moment


sure enough you cowards havent changed your votes or even considered it

[gabe]

I will likely die tonight so if loki doesnt cinch it you should all follow wuf

gabe is never a villager here

im always a villager here. i "killed" ong just as much as you did

[lilrascal]

Day is over. 15 mins for corrections.

IT IS NIGHT.

DO NOT POST.

[baudib]

Rong was lynched.

Spoiler: Show

You are Rollo Lodbrok, the hulking brother of Earl Ragnar of Kattegat. You are a badass fighter.

You are a vanilla villager, the soul of the game. Your vote is your weapon.

You win when all threats to the village are eliminated.

You may gain new abilities as the game progresses.

Night actions by 10 a.m. EST

[baudib]

::::::rolling hit dice:::::::::::

Spoiler: Show

Hoopy was shot.
You are Fenrir, the wolf son of Loki and a giantess. At Ragnarok, it is foretold you will be the killer of the gods.

You are an JOAT (jack of all trades) wolf. Once per day cycle you may choose 1 of the following actions:

roleblock
peek (affiliation peek)
angel (50% protection vs. lethal acts)

you may use these powers on any player but you cannot target the same player twice in a game. You may not target yourself.

You are a wolf and win when you achieve parity with the village.

:::::rollilng hit dice::::::::::

Spoiler: Show

no one has died



The gods have smiled on a brave woman.

[baudib]

Keith, a vanilla villager, shot Day 1
OngBonga, a wolf day vig, lynched Day 1
Monstrman, a village vig, killed Night 1
Keybored, a vanilla villager, killed Night 1
BankItDrew, a village seer, killed Night 1
Boog, a vanilla villager, lynched Day 2
MadMojoMonkey, a vanilla villager, killed Night 2
Rong, a vanilla villager, lynched Day 3
Hoopy, a wolf JOAT, killed night 3

The Living
Daven
Gabe
JKDS
lilrascal
Luco
Wufwugy

1 Frost Giant
1 Trickster God
4 Vikings


IT IS DAY. YOU MAY POST.

Day 4 will end Midnight Friday (Saturday morning).

[baudib]

Guys, I made a mistake previously and overlooked one of the night actions. It's fixed now. Sorry for those who saw previous reveal.

[JKDS]

K, I reassessed.

Lynch LilRascal

Because the amount of reacharounds hoopy and luco were giving each other makes it highly improbable they are wolves together. This much hard defending and killing ong are too much fps, especially given there wasnt suspicion on either when they did so. Meanwhile Rascal put hoopy in his villa list for vote analysis, but gabe in his wolf list even though gabe's ong vote is far more compelling. In post 626, he asks hoopy in thread for reads on people (not anyone else) implying theyre more than strangers (else, why hoopy, and not say rong?). I also find it suspicious that he joined the rong wagon, as that was the path of least resistance and is level 0 wolfing (much like posting 'effort' is a level 0 villa tell). When he talks about hoopy too, its always wishy washy. For example,

I disagree with you on Hoopy and JKDS. In fact, I'm reading them exactly opposite from you. I've found Hoopy's posting to be more game solvery than JKDS's posts. But I'd like to see both of them step up more this game day.

Hoopy - I still read you as villa, but I feel your contribution in IRL today has been somewhat lacking

In addition, hes really the only possible wolf left.

Wuf is never a wolf here, his posts are too villawuf in response to the loki stuff, and he hasnt changed tone since then.

Gabe is highly unlikely to be a wolf here. Votes for ong, for hoopy, makes posts discrediting town cred for hoopy (such as 667).

And daven is a villager.

[baudib]

Mod Corner:

Triple voter? What triple voter?

it's mostly just straight WW from here on out fellas.

[Luco]

Yeah I came around to hoopy / rascal overnight

lynch rascal

[Luco]

Narrowed it down to hoopy rascal gabe

Knew it wasn't rascal / gabe team after yesterday, meaning hoopy was always a wolf

Then a readthrough put rascal right in the frame where hoopy votes for an absent dhuber and rescinds later for no reason, and none of the hoopy / rascal interactions were clearing

[daven]

i've been offline for 48hrs, will be on and off erratically now for the next few days

nice shooting vig = serial killer/loki right?
nice save angel = that's what happened right? wolf kill got blocked?

six players left, angel and angel's save and me confirmed not wolf
if loki chose to out he could win with the village, but i can't imagine anyone in the lineup doing anything other than going for the solo win

angel should think on whether an out now would win the game for us, risk is that the last wolf has some ability that would be unlocked if the angel outs. need to think on it some more

gabe seems pretty heavenly villa right now.

[daven]

heavily... not heavenly

[wufwugy]

we could lose to the sk if we make the wrong lynch

[wufwugy]

Yeah I came around to hoopy / rascal overnight

i came to this as well

[wufwugy]

daven if people out the wolves probably get dayvig shots. ong got one after monstr outed but obv couldnt use it in the 2 remaining minutes

[wufwugy]

so i guess my "hoopy tells" were right

one of them was general to all wolves and one was specific to hoopy

maybe if monsieur ronk realized that playing ww is more important than being a family man then we could have jumped straight to lynching teh hoopman instead

[wufwugy]

Went through lots of Dhubs/Rascal stuff. Not sure what my opinion is yet

My Observations so far...

OngBonga: TWTBAW is standard Village game for him

Keith:

BID: Completely full of it... wolfy

MMM: Used words input output for first time I recall. Also hopped on me due to non-claim... wolfy

lynch BID

Ong might have attacked Dhubs for his lack of Vanilla Villager claim if he knew Dhubs was a villager, but instead he defended it

Dhubermex - didn't claim vanilla. Probably not a wolf because he'd surely just stick to his usual first post and adjust next time he's a villager.

Twice before Ong was lynched, Hoopy said he was suspicious of Dhubs and could switch. Then after Ong was lynched, he said nothing about Dhubs.

He comes around to bolding him, but for a really weak reason

lynch dhuber

Still awol, nothing from him yet.

Good to see JKDS & gabe are starting to be more active.

Heh then a rescind. I wonder if at this point, the den was told a replacement was being searched for. The sub happens 12 hours later.

rescind dhuber

Interested why you think this daven? I've got MMM as a villager lean due to the decent logic & effort in his posts, particularly #471.

This agreement is about how dangerous rascal is. Yet he doesn't act like he wants to bold him

Agree about lilrascal & rong.

At the EOD of yesterday, he doesn't like a Rascal lynch

gabe is flipping around a lot, I'm not convinced on rascal though.

I've seen nothing wolfy from him yet, maybe that changes when he starts posting freely but right now he's fine in my mind.

Seems a little defensive since Rong bolded Hoopy, not Rascal

This type of posting is why I find you wolfy. You start off in the first post I quoted stating you like my clear concise posts and then a few posts later you have my in your top 3 wolf candidates. What made ysou switch?

I'm guessing you thought I would possibly be an easy mislynch candidate since it can't be based on other posts I've made since I just got back in the thread.

Buddying the one guy who doesn't want to lynch him

I'm agreeing more and more with Wuf. IRL last night I softened my stance on Wuf being a wolf, but his EOD posting looks villa to me.

I'll definitely have to take a reread on Wuf as to why I had him wolfy from my beginning, but that will have to wait until I'm on my computer with my notes.

[wufwugy]

it's possible that both remaining wolves were on the rong wagon. they had reason to be afraid of a triple voter obstructing the mislynch

[lilrascal]

K, I reassessed.

Lynch LilRascal

Because the amount of reacharounds hoopy and luco were giving each other makes it highly improbable they are wolves together. This much hard defending and killing ong are too much fps, especially given there wasnt suspicion on either when they did so. Meanwhile Rascal put hoopy in his villa list for vote analysis, but gabe in his wolf list even though gabe's ong vote is far more compelling. In post 626, he asks hoopy in thread for reads on people (not anyone else) implying theyre more than strangers (else, why hoopy, and not say rong?). I also find it suspicious that he joined the rong wagon, as that was the path of least resistance and is level 0 wolfing (much like posting 'effort' is a level 0 villa tell). When he talks about hoopy too, its always wishy washy. For example,





In addition, hes really the only possible wolf left.

Wuf is never a wolf here, his posts are too villawuf in response to the loki stuff, and he hasnt changed tone since then.

Gabe is highly unlikely to be a wolf here. Votes for ong, for hoopy, makes posts discrediting town cred for hoopy (such as 667).

And daven is a villager.

I incorrectly had Rong as a wolf and voted for his lynch. Unfortunately mislynches happen in werewolf games. I wasn't the only one voting for him; Daven and Wuf were voting him as well as wolf Hoopy.


Let's get a few facts correct here before I move on to other things tonight in this thread. In particular about the bolded part of your post above which I'll break down and address.

First point:

Meanwhile Rascal put hoopy in his villa list for vote analysis, but gabe in his wolf list even though gabe's ong vote is far more compelling.

This is exactly what I said in my first post (#591 cut down to just the reads):

Here's my reads on the current players:

Daven - Strong Villa lean, first one to go after wolf Ong for his vig and likely BID's peek
Luco - Strong Villa lean, helped push the Ong vote over the top to get the lynch, so good D1, D2 could have been better
Hoopy - Villa lean, primarily based on D1 vote analysis, D2 could have been better
lilrascal - Lock Villa, I know I'm villa and will work to prove it to the rest of you

JKDS - Neutral, nothing has stood out as villa or wolfy

That leaves the wolves and the Serial Killer (SK) in the rest. I got there 2 ways, first in making my reads I had all three as wolfy. Second, as I'm making this post they fall out as the wolves through Process of Elimination (POE).

Based on posts I can't see Rong and Wuf as w/w. That leaves one of them as the wolf and the other as the SK.

Gabe - Wolf lean, no real content in his posts and he only voted a single time each day not bothering to take the flow of the thread into account which can definitely be a wolf trait.
Rong - Wolf lean, Rong's the only player to vote for 2 villas at each EOD. Also, I haven't noticed any villa things that he's done.
Wufwugy - Wolf lean, his thoughts have been all over the place. Wuf was also pushing for a Keith kill, which as was pointed out by others, not a villa thing to do. If I had to guess, I'd say Wuf is more likely to be Loki than a wolf.

I had Hoopy as a Villa lean, not a Strong Villa lean as I had for Daven and Luco. As far as Gabe goes, I got there in two ways, one by POE and the other based on content and bad flow appearing to be disconnected from the thread.

The next IRL night, I had reassessed based on the thread and changed my reads as shown here (#734 cut down to just the reads):

After rereading each person in isolation today I have the following reads on all the alive players:
Daven - No posts in since IRL last night. I still feel he is a clear villa based on BID's post and him being the first one to call out Ong on his vig of Keith.
Hoopy - I still read you as villa, but I feel your contribution in IRL today has been somewhat lacking.
lilrascal - I know I'm villa and I'm still working on proving that to the rest of the villas.

JKDS - I'm starting to read you more as villa than neutral based on your contributions in IRL today.
Luco - See my earlier post for details on my thoughts on Luco. I had you as one of my villas, but now I'm unsure. Your handling of the triple vote on D2 is very troubling for me. Please answer my questions in my earlier post.

Wufwogy - I really don't know what to make of you in this game. You appear very wolfy to me, but I can't see you and Rong as w/w and I think Rong is definitely a wolf. I see you trying to make some cases in the game, but they're all from your POV and they don't seem to take into account how others would see it which makes them less powerful.

Gabe - I still find you to be somewhat wolfy overall in the game, but your IRL today has been much better. I have you more as a wolf lean than a lock wolf, but that's mainly based on POE.
Rong - See my earlier post for details on my thoughts on Rong. I originally read you as a wolf and you've done nothing to change my mind.

Rong is still my strongest wolf candidate, so I say Lynch Rong for now. I could change my mind based on new evidence, but that's where I stand for now.

I wasn't liking Hoopy as much and was softening on Gabe based on the posts for the day but as I stated that was based on POE rather than a read. My probable mistake here was in reading each person in isolation rather than the flow of the thread, but I was pressed for time to get my posts in to get post the site limit per day so as to not be limited later. My incorrect read on Rong led me down the wrong path in my POE, which I'll reexamine tonight now that we have new information.


Next point:

In post 626, he asks hoopy in thread for reads on people (not anyone else) implying theyre more than strangers (else, why hoopy, and not say rong?).

This is such a LOL mischaracterization of that post it's almost laughable if you weren't voting for me. I quoted and responded to 6 different posts in #626 (my second post of the game); another 9 in quotes in #655; another 4 in #664; and 3 more in #669. As I stated, I mainly play werewolf by interaction and tone. I was trying to get some interaction going with everyone in the game to be able to make my reads. If you go back and check (which I just did, so you don't try and call me out on it) I responded to every alive player in the game in those posts. So, implying that interaction is w/w is a stretch.


Third point:

I also find it suspicious that he joined the rong wagon, as that was the path of least resistance and is level 0 wolfing (much like posting 'effort' is a level 0 villa tell).

I don't understand why you'd say I joined the Rong wagon. From my very first post, I had Rong as a wolf. I didn't jump on that wagon. There were 19 hours between when I made that vote and EOD to change it, but Rong's posting was bad the IRL day he was lynched, especially with posts like this Rong was not being very villagery:

I can't argue with lucos dead weight comment. Sorry again, I suck these days.

Last point:

When he talks about hoopy too, its always wishy washy.

If you call updating reads based on new information, then I'm wishy washy. It's also known as being a villa where you don't have accurate information except what you can read in the thread. I guess I'll always be wishy washy, otherwise I'll become blind and a liability to the village for not reassessing based on new information.

[lilrascal]

Yeah I came around to hoopy / rascal overnight

lynch rascal

Let me see if I got this right. Overnight, before the villa knew that Hoopy was a wolf, you came around to me and Hoopy being w/w.

Please give me your thoughts to how you got there because you're wrong about me being a wolf. I'd really like to know why you think I'm wolfy other than my vote on Rong. Afaict that's the only wolfy thing that I've done this game.

[lilrascal]

I'm not great at the mechanics, so please let me know if any of this is wrong.

Here's where we stand:

1 Frost Giant
1 Trickster God
4 Vikings

This game is now very tricky for the village imo.

With only one wolf left alive, then the only solo wincon for the SK (since he didn't go neutral) is to make it to f3 with the wolf and a villa. The SK could win this tonight if we mislynch someone and the wolf and SK each take out a villa making it 1/1/1 tomorrow. Therefore a mislynch tonight could end the game, but only for the SK.

Serial killer (Loki)
There is a neutral serial killer in the game (Loki)
On night 0, you get a true affiliation peek. On each night thereafter, you may choose to be vig or bulletproof.

You appear to be vanilla villager to any seer.

Your win conditions are as follows:

As a neutral, you share the win if you are alive when the wolves achieve parity or if all wolves are eliminated. You will be the sole winner of the game if you reach a final 3 with 1 villager and 1 wolf.

You may choose to side with either the wolves or the villagers before start of day 3 as long as 1 wolf and 2 villagers are dead, but you will then become vanilla!

As I read that, the single wolf can't win now with the SK alive, so the wolf needs the SK dead by a lynch or NK. If we lynch the SK and the wolf NKs a villa then we're at 3/1 tomorrow. If we mislynch a villa today and the wolf NKs the SK, then we're again at 3/1 tomorrow. If the wolf misses the SK and kills a villa instead, then it's 1/1/1 and the SK wins.


For the villas, here's how things can play out based on today's lynch:
- If we lynch the wolf tonight, then it's a victory for both the villas and the SK.

- If we lynch the SK tonight, then we're most likely at 3/1 tomorrow and must lynch.

- If we mislynch, then it depends on the NKs as to whether or not there's a game for the villas tomorrow.

[wufwugy]

the best opportunity for the sk to win is to team up with the village and lynch the wolf today

or shoot the wolf tonight. it will be extremely hard for the sk to dodge lynch, dodge the nom, dodge the wolf's nom target, and dodge a protect in order to get the 1v1v1 win

if he goes for glory, he is more likely to lose.

[lilrascal]

Putting this out while I reassess things.

CHARTZ

Player	How Died	Flip	D1 Vote	D1 Votes(407)	D2 Vote	D2 Votes(572)	D3 Vote	D3 Votes(xxx)
BankitDrew	N1	V Seer	Ong	Wuf(17), Ong(34), Dhub(137), Monstr(143), Ong(148)
Boog	D2 Lynch	VV	Ong	JKDS(80), Key(215), Monstr(394), Ong(403)	Rong	Rong(473), Wuf(505), Rong(516)
Daven			Monstr	MMM(275), Monstr(280)	Wuf	MMM(541), Wuf(543)	Rong	Rong(624)
Dhubermex/lilrascal			BID	BID(138)			Rong	Rong(734)
Gabe			Ong	Ong(212)	Boog	Boog(445)	Rascal	Wuf(797), Hoopy(802), Rascal(807)
Hoopy	N3 Shot	Wolf JOAT	Ong	Monstr(26), Ong(225)		Dhuber(475)	Rong	Rong(682)
JKDS			Key	Key(151)	Wuf	Wuf(454), Unlynch(519), Wuf(522)	Hoopy	Gabe(653), Luco (697), Hoopy(733)
Keith	D1 Vig	VV		Monstr(27)
Keybored	N1	VV	Monstr	Monstr(7), Monstr(31). JKDS(154), Monstr(337)
Luco			Ong	Ong(23), Gabe(294), Daven(369), Ong(402)		Rong(466), Rescind(525)	Gabe	JKDS(617), Rong (684), Gabe(783)
MadMojoMonkey	N2	VV	Ong	Dhub(108), Ong(179)	Boog	Rong(436), Boog(517)
Monstrman	N1	N Vig	Ong	Daven(324), Ong(397)
OngBonga	D1 Lynch	D Vig	Monstr	Boog(5), Luco(25), Key(32), BID(54), Wuf(17), Monstr(132), JKDS(158), Hoopy(229), Daven(303), Monstr(365)
Rong	D3 Lynch	VV	Monstr	Wuf(161), Monstr(384)	Boog	Wuf(479), Rescind(498), Boog(520)		Luco (703), Rescind(790)
Wufwugy			Hoopy	Rong(89), Hoopy(226)	Rong	Boog(451), Rong(474), Boog(507), Unbold(532), Rong(550)	Rong	Rong(593)

[lilrascal]

the best opportunity for the sk to win is to team up with the village and lynch the wolf today

or shoot the wolf tonight. it will be extremely hard for the sk to dodge lynch, dodge the nom, dodge the wolf's nom target, and dodge a protect in order to get the 1v1v1 win

if he goes for glory, he is more likely to lose.

I definitely agree with this and hope the SK does as well.

[lilrascal]

CHARTZ with just the live players

Player	How Died	Flip	D1 Vote	D1 Votes(407)	D2 Vote	D2 Votes(572)	D3 Vote	D3 Votes(xxx)
Daven			Monstr	MMM(275), Monstr(280)	Wuf	MMM(541), Wuf(543)	Rong	Rong(624)
Dhubermex/lilrascal			BID	BID(138)			Rong	Rong(734)
Gabe			Ong	Ong(212)	Boog	Boog(445)	Rascal	Wuf(797), Hoopy(802), Rascal(807)
JKDS			Key	Key(151)	Wuf	Wuf(454), Unlynch(519), Wuf(522)	Hoopy	Gabe(653), Luco (697), Hoopy(733)
Luco			Ong	Ong(23), Gabe(294), Daven(369), Ong(402)		Rong(466), Rescind(525)	Gabe	JKDS(617), Rong (684), Gabe(783)
Wufwugy			Hoopy	Rong(89), Hoopy(226)	Rong	Boog(451), Rong(474), Boog(507), Unbold(532), Rong(550)	Rong	Rong(593)

[lilrascal]

The following reads are based on vote analysis.

I'm not giving much villa credit for voting wolf Ong D1 since that was the obvious vote on D1 and wolf Hoopy voted for him. I don't have the playing experience that you'll have with each other to know if any of the players are playing in their wolf or villa range.

Here's the live players in order of villageryness to wolfiness/SKness:
Daven - Villa: voted Monstr/Wuf/Rong; not good voting, but I still think he's clear based on BID's claim
lilrascal/Dhub - Villa: Dhub voted BID, I messed up in voting Rong as I've stated in an earlier post
JKDS - Slight Villa Lean: voted Key/Wuf/Hoopy; will need to look at the D1 vote but I don't get it; Wuf vote was OK from a villa perspective at the time; D3 vote on Hoopy is good with good reasons provided, but it is a safe vote for a wolf to make to get villa cred in that position since Hoopy wasn't in danger of getting lynched

Wuf - Neutral with concern: voted Hoopy/Rong/Rong; Hoopy vote is good unless it was an early FPS play, I doubt it though; Wuf's actually been voting Rong since D1, I'm a little biased here since I read Rong wolfy as well; my concern with Wuf is that he may be pocketing me
Luco - Neutral with concern: voted Ong/no vote/Gabe; D1 vote on wolf Ong was the easy vote; D2 not voting as the triple voter is troubling and suspicious; D3 Luco gives reasons for his vote and agrees with JKDS's analysis but goes the opposite way and votes Gabe instead, this could be to protect his wolfbro Hoopy that JKDS was voting for

Gabe - Wolf/SK Lean: voted Ong/Boog/Rascal; D1 vote on wolf Ong was the easy vote; D2 was second vote on villa Boog, which is not a good look; D3 voted rascal with false statements made in #807 which I addressed in #825


I'm used to many more posts than we have in this game to make my reads, plus a lot more interaction as well. If you disagree with these reads, please give me the rationale as to why. We can't afford to get this lynch wrong.

[lilrascal]

Here's Gabe's EOD yesterday.

This is at 3:48PM and can't decide who to vote for.

i just wanted to say im here, but im having a tough time deciding. this game seems to have slowed down at a crucial point.


its very important i pick the right person.

in this moment im leaning towards wuf. i think the %s i posted on why we should kill him makes good sense but no one really acknowledged that

One minute later with no one else posting, he's made up his mind.

we need 3 hours worth of posts, so might as well get to the point

lynch wuf


someone join me. we'll shake this thing up and get some info and hopefully a wolf

JKDS makes this post at 5:04PM

I prefer hoopy to rong, gabe, and wuf. The problem is that the ong quote is really the only concrete thing I can say about him,. The rest is just bad vibes. I dont see a reason to suspect gabe at this point, and being tricky isnt exactly a smoking gun.

We should be lynching luco though.

Six minutes later at 5:10PM Gabe is jumping on that wagon vote (for now)

hoopy's last post is pretty typical of what makes him always suspicious

rescind and lynch hoopy

im switching off wuf. i think my theory about him being wolf more than average was true. but the fact luco/rong/jkds havent even touched it is because one of them is loki, and knows they told the truth

i am trying to reread as many words as i can before deadline

Rong points out at 5:27PM what Gabe is doing with his Hoopy vote

Is gabe conveniently joining me on Hoopy to ensure I don't switch from Hoopy to him?

At 5:47PM Gabe switches his vote again with a made up reason to vote for me by saying I haven't voted, when I placed my vote on Rong at 12:01AM

kinda

ive been changing my mind alot and that made it easier

rescind and lynch rascal

rascal hasnt voted yet or even shown up in the most crucial part of the game. despite none of you agreeing, his posting style is wolfy. i know i keep repeating myself but no one has even tried to run with it: we know rascal has WW experience. because of this im skeptical of his routine. straightforward word recycler who tricks everyone with color flare. literally everyone, because no one has stopped to think about it


none of us are feeling the lynch wagons of the day..lets try this one

Gabe if you're villa, convince me of that so we don't get a mislynch here.

Until that time:

Lynch Gabe

[lilrascal]

I'll be around for EOD tomorrow if someone wants to interact. It's not as productive talking to myself here.

[wufwugy]

what is pocketing

[wufwugy]

ftr games are much lower post count. half of the players are british too

i'll put my bold where i want it tomorrow

[wufwugy]

especially the late game is really slow here. early-mid game can be pretty hectic tho

[lilrascal]

what is pocketing

When you get someone to think like you by agreeing with them or posting thoughts that get them to align with you.

[lilrascal]

I think the most important vote of this game is likely to be tomorrow. How active will the thread be for the EOD?

[lilrascal]

especially the late game is really slow here. early-mid game can be pretty hectic tho

I've played in some games that had over 5000 posts in a single game day which less than 24 hours real time.

[lilrascal]

But those games had about 4 times the number of players as this.

[Luco]

Let me see if I got this right. Overnight, before the villa knew that Hoopy was a wolf, you came around to me and Hoopy being w/w.

Please give me your thoughts to how you got there because you're wrong about me being a wolf. I'd really like to know why you think I'm wolfy other than my vote on Rong. Afaict that's the only wolfy thing that I've done this game.

Sure. I added hoopy back into the pool based on the fact that he hadn't looked really game-solvey for two days in a row. I had everyone else leaning v except you and gabe

Gabe's actions at EoD yesterday made it unlikely you two were wolves together, so in a pool of three that meant hoopy had to be a wolf.

Voting for villagers isn't de facto wolfy, it's all about the rationale and if someone believes what they're selling. You're right that I haven't really seen anything you've said as overtly wolfy, but hoopy's rescind of dhuber without rationale was out of place, and you got subbed shortly after. The other thing that occurred to me is kinda meta, but most new people tend to read hoopy as wolfy and you didn't.

I still like wuf as v
Daven I seem to be the only one who's even considered he could b W but tha's cool
JKDS didn't even give me an inch yesterday which is kinda hard for a wolf to do as they know they're lying
Gabe I'm never going to trust this game and he's my pick for loki right now, but just wishing him as W doesn't make it so. I was pretty sure about hoopy once I took the blinkers off, but I came down to you on balance.

[Luco]

This is interesting though

This is what I meant by fancy play syndrome being involved here. Him doing it as a wolf is pretty ballsy, but as a villager it makes no sense at all.

Don't see myself switching to anyone else except maybe dhuber, but time is getting short.

EoD1 post from hoopy. The only way this makes sense is if the wolves were annoyed with dhuber's lack of activity or something

[baudib]

EOD in little more than 12 hours.

rascal 2 (JKDS, Luco)
gabe 1 (Rascal)

[Luco]

Wow it's hard to keep up with all this activity

[lilrascal]

This is interesting though



EoD1 post from hoopy. The only way this makes sense is if the wolves were annoyed with dhuber's lack of activity or something

I'm on lunch break, so I can be in the thread for a little while.

Let's start with the quotes and interaction with regards to your post:

Quick question for all you Ong lynchers: why would Ong bring SO much attention to himself on DAY ONE as a wolf, especially concerning a soon-to-be subbed Keith?

This is what I meant by fancy play syndrome being involved here. Him doing it as a wolf is pretty ballsy, but as a villager it makes no sense at all.

Don't see myself switching to anyone else except maybe dhuber, but time is getting short.

Let's start with what we know. now Which is that Hoopy and Ong are both wolves. Then we need to look at Hoopy's post with that knowledge from both perspectives.

1) Let's assume that Dhub/rascal is a wolf. Why would Hoopy mention both of his wolfbros in a single post saying that he'd only lynch one of his wolfbros that early on D1? That just doesn't make sense there from Hoopy's perspective when Dhub his assumed wolfbro is receiving no heat. I find this scenario highly unlikely.
2) Let's assume that Dhub/rascal is villa. Hoopy mentioning an alternative to lynching his wolfbro is a good play. If it picks up traction he's saved Ong from the lynch. If it doesn't he hasn't stuck his neck out too far in trying to save Ong. This has a lot of upside from Hoopy's perspective if it picks up traction. I find this the most likely scenario.

I also have the extra knowledge that you don't, since I know I'm villa. But disregarding that I can't see why Hoopy would make that play there, so 2 makes the most sense.

[lilrascal]

Wow it's hard to keep up with all this activity

Then please respond with reads and rationale. I've laid out my thoughts and they've been met with mostly silence. If I'm wrong on someone, then please explain why.

I do try and reassess the game and adjust my reads, but that's not possible when people aren'lt playing the game as well.

[Luco]

And then there's this (#302)

dhuber's contribution so far is 2 posts which are very weak.

JKDS has 3 posts but actually on looking back they're quite good. I'd like to hear more from him.

gabe doesn't have much, but he did vote for Ong which is a plus in my book.

So of the quiet people dhuber looks the dodgiest.

lynch dhuber

Still awol, nothing from him yet.

Good to see JKDS & gabe are starting to be more active.

huh, it could still be gabe

[lilrascal]

And then there's this (#302)





huh, it could still be gabe

I think those 2 posts of Hoopy that you quoted make if fairly obvious that I'm not a wolf. Wolf Hoopy would have no reason to make those posts about his wolfbro.

I think it's Gabe also which is why I'm voting for him.

[JKDS]

Or, its like wufwugy said. And voting dhuber is a way to use an afk player for benefit.

[JKDS]

I incorrectly had Rong as a wolf and voted for his lynch. Unfortunately mislynches happen in werewolf games. I wasn't the only one voting for him; Daven and Wuf were voting him as well as wolf Hoopy.

Mislynches do happen. Wolves directly benefit from them though.

I had Hoopy as a Villa lean, not a Strong Villa lean as I had for Daven and Luco. As far as Gabe goes, I got there in two ways, one by POE and the other based on content and bad flow appearing to be disconnected from the thread.

The next IRL night, I had reassessed based on the thread and changed my reads as shown here (#734 cut down to just the reads):

I wasn't liking Hoopy as much and was softening on Gabe based on the posts for the day but as I stated that was based on POE rather than a read. My probable mistake here was in reading each person in isolation rather than the flow of the thread, but I was pressed for time to get my posts in to get post the site limit per day so as to not be limited later. My incorrect read on Rong led me down the wrong path in my POE, which I'll reexamine tonight now that we have new information.

It is irrelevant that you had hoopy as a villa lean as opposed to a strong villa lean. You put him in your pile of people that re villagers, and highlighted him in fancy green color. You do so based on vote analysis, but Gabe's vote analysis is more villagery than hoopy's. You ignore this though, without takign it into consideration at all, and then justify placing him as a wolf due to POE (even though you just now said that hoopy was just a villa lean. However, POE doesnt work if you arent confident in the read.)

Next point:

This is such a LOL mischaracterization of that post it's almost laughable if you weren't voting for me. I quoted and responded to 6 different posts in #626 (my second post of the game); another 9 in quotes in #655; another 4 in #664; and 3 more in #669. As I stated, I mainly play werewolf by interaction and tone. I was trying to get some interaction going with everyone in the game to be able to make my reads. If you go back and check (which I just did, so you don't try and call me out on it) I responded to every alive player in the game in those posts. So, implying that interaction is w/w is a stretch.

Laugh to discredit a point, check.

The fact of the matter is you asked hoopy in thread for his opinions on other players. You didnt ask anyone else for their opinions on players, you asked hoopy specifically. This is something hoopy can respond to easily, without revealing role indicative information. Its also something hoopy in particular wouldnt know any more than anyone else, so its confusing why you'd ask him this specifically and not any one else (or everyone else). Why wasnt the question, "could someone give me meta on everyone" instead of asking hoopy specifically?

Meanwhile, in that same post, you ask rong a role indicative question (elaborate on your spite voting), you call wuf a wolf or loki which might trigger a role indicative response, and ask luco for reasoning on a jkds read which could also provide role indicative information. For hoopy, you give him a softball. For these three, you ask them questions which, if answered incorrectly, could paint them as a wolf.

You say you responded to more quotes in other posts. But convienently, you dont talk about hoopy in post 655, dont mention him in 664, and provide a one-liner saying hoopy is a villager (without reasoning) in 669.

You say you play ww by interaction and tone, yet it seems clear you avoided interacting with hoopy entirely.

Third point:


I don't understand why you'd say I joined the Rong wagon. From my very first post, I had Rong as a wolf. I didn't jump on that wagon. There were 19 hours between when I made that vote and EOD to change it, but Rong's posting was bad the IRL day he was lynched, especially with posts like this Rong was not being very villagery:

Because you read the thread, and saw Rong was lynch bait on day 2. Listing him as a wolf in your first post is joining this general sentiment, ie, joining the wagon.

I think you know better than to incorrectly think pro-village = villager and anti-village = wolf too. Rong's anti-village comments were an excuse for you, not a real reason to lynch him.

Last point:

If you call updating reads based on new information, then I'm wishy washy. It's also known as being a villa where you don't have accurate information except what you can read in the thread. I guess I'll always be wishy washy, otherwise I'll become blind and a liability to the village for not reassessing based on new information.

Updating reads? No. You call hoopy a villager, then clarify it with wishy washy things like "but id like to see more" or "but his day2 was bad". Thats being wishwashy, and has nothing to do with updating reads based on new information. Its a way for you to callhoopy a villager without committing, and allowing yourself to pull back from it if things go bad. Like you're doing now.

[lilrascal]

You're making your arguments with the assumption that I'm a wolf.

Reread those same interactions with the assumption that I'm a villa with no knowledge of anyone's role.

I've been trying to interact with people, but the lack of responses to my reads with why there wrong has been lacking. Instead of discussing what I've put forth as my reads and where I'm possible wrong, I'm being called a wolf and being forced to defend myself.

I did ask everyone to give me input, but you keep pointing to one piece of a large MQ post.

[lilrascal]

@JKDS - regarding me reassessing and updating my reads. Go back and look at my posts where I've laid out my thoughts on everyone.

Apparently, werewolf is played very differently on this site and you don't like my posting style or something, but I'm trying to do my best for the villas because the villas can't afford my mislynch.

[lilrascal]

Or, its like wufwugy said. And voting dhuber is a way to use an afk player for benefit.

I would agree with this, except for Ong being the other wolf. Hoopy would be sabotaging his team by sacrificing both his wolfbros. That doesn't make sense for a wolf to do.

[JKDS]

Reading posts with the assumption someone is villa or wolf is dumb. This is about probability, making educated guesses with incomplete information. The totality of everything you've posted so far make it far more likely you are a wolf than a villager. Meanwhile, the totality of everything everyone else has posted so far make it far more likely they are villagers than wolves.

[JKDS]

@JKDS - regarding me reassessing and updating my reads. Go back and look at my posts where I've laid out my thoughts on everyone.

I have read them. My point stands.

Apparently, werewolf is played very differently on this site and you don't like my posting style or something, but I'm trying to do my best for the villas because the villas can't afford my mislynch.

Ad hominem away.

I would agree with this, except for Ong being the other wolf. Hoopy would be sabotaging his team by sacrificing both his wolfbros. That doesn't make sense for a wolf to do.

Only if he succeeding in getting both wolves lynched, which clearly didnt happen since no one even talked about you or dhubs till today. A wolf hoopy/dhuber team benefits from such a statement as well in that hoopy gets villa cred if dhuber is modkilled, seered, shot, or lynched for inactivity. Regardless, this is a game of deception. Even if the post is to be read as you say it should, it doesnt negate the rest of the incriminating evidence against you.

[gabe]

gabe seems pretty heavenly villa right now.

thanks daven


and rascal, we get it, you usually play somewhere else. why do you feel the need to keep bringing this up? it has no bearing on whether you are a wolf or not but you keep using it. feels like you are forcing us to think something about you, which villagers dont really have to do

this lynch feels pretty good. everyone else has intentionally benefited village, even loki, whoever he is
lynch lilrascal

[gabe]

I'm being called a wolf and being forced to defend myself.

thats how people can make reads on you, by making you defend yourself

since rascal is leading, i dont feel compelled to do much convincing. the only other person with a decent chance of being a wolf is jkds. his arguments are always sound but besides that, he hasnt taken any action that stands out. he also opened today by running with the wagon i started, which i appreciate, but im always skeptical of people trying to do things they know that i will agree with

[gabe]

Reading posts with the assumption someone is villa or wolf is dumb.

yea but it does sometimes read like you are doing this, im pretty sure everyone would agree

[lilrascal]

HARD CLAIM ANGEL

I was hoping to avoid this, but it doesn't seem like I'll be able to. But it's better to get this information out now to help the village. I'll die tonight from either thewolf or SK now, but the villa will at least have a chance to win this game.

For D1/N1 Dhub angeled Gabe
For N2 I angeled Luco
For D3/N3 I angeled Daven