No theme werewolf gameplay thread

[MadMojoMonkey]

Make a case on anyone, ong. Quit lurking. Quit reacting.

I'm not directly calling you out other than your lack of detective work... but you're here in the thread... so why are you just reacting to me?

I'm assembling info that JKDS said in the light that he's a villager and pulling out bits that seems to summarize his positions. If you disagree with my assemblage, then show me a better assemblage or criticize why the quote is not a good summary of JKDS's point.

Make a solid case that I can back on anyone, W or V.

If it's a solid enough case, I'll def. come off you.

Also, do you think that a wolf ever whips people to get involved with their own opinions and analysis like I am?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Does this slip mean anything?

I don't personally think it's role-indicative, but I'm not the best at reading that stuff.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Looking back at the first half of the thread (up to 525) Luco believed in ongville strongly at this point.

Keybored is dropping long, referenced posts and asking questions.

I'd say the most likely pair is hoopy/BID.

BID looks bad in all kinds of ways. None of the kudos he's received have been role-related. Increased involvement and "because he didn't care before, but now he does" could well be wolfy from BID.

hoopy looks terrible in the first few pages up to the rilla vote.
hoopy/BID makes sense if the wolves wanted to drop rilla.
hoopy's most potent claim to V-status came from confirmed villagers reading the rilla vote as villager lead.

***
It could well be that my problem with ong is that one one hand, ong found 2 wolves, so I want to see his power return. On the other hand, it was a team effort that brought down baudib (ong was on the team , fersher), and rilla played wolf as wolf.

rescind ong

[Keybored]

Here's the entire vote breakdown. Voter first, Votee(s) next. Voter names are listed in the chrono order they voted. I.e., d1 first to vote was Ong and last to vote was Luco. Last votee to right of each voter is their counted vote. *name* is lynch vote.

DAY1 (BAUDIB LYNCH) DAY2 (RILLA LYNCH)
ONG = BAUD, KEITH, BAUD, KEITH, BAUD BID= KEYB, RILLA
JKDS= BAUD, ONG DHUB= ONG
BAUD= DAVEN, DHUBER, ONG ONG= RILLA, JKDS, *RILLA*
MMM= KEYB, KEYB, LUCO, *BAUDIB* GABE= KEYB
DHUB= KEYB, KEITH, ONG KEYB= GABE, HOOPY, JKDS, DHUBER
GABE= DHUBER, BAUDIB MMM= ONG, RILLA
KEYB= BAUDIB, JKDS RILLA= DHUBER
HOOP= BID, KEITH, (no vote) LUCO= RILLA, JKDS, RILLA
KEITH= BID DAVN= JKDS
DAVN= BAUDIB JKDS= ONG
BID= ONG HOOP= RILLA
RILLA= BAUDIB, KEITH
LUCO= KEITH

DAY3 (GABE LYNCH) DAY4 (JKDS LYNCH)
BID= ONG, DHUB, ONG, *GABE* DHUB= ONG, JKDS, MMM, *JKDS*
JKDS= ONG ONG= JKDS, MMM
MMM= ONG, DHUB, GABE MMM= JKDS
ONG= JKDS, GABE, JKDS KEYB= MMM, DHUB, JKDS
DHUB= ONG, ONG JKDS= MMM
KEYB= MMM, DHUB, GABE, JKDS, GABE HOOP= DHUB, JKDS
LUCO= JKDS, DHUB, GABE, JKDS, GABE BID= DHUB
HOOP= GABE
GABE= ONG
__________________________________________________ ________________________

KEYB = BAUD, JKDS / GABE, HOOPY, JKDS, DHUB / MMM, DHUB, GABE, JKDS, GABE / MMM, DHUB, JKDS
ONG = BAUD, KEITH, BAUD, KEITH, BAUD / RILLA, JKDS, RILLA / JKDS, GABE, JKDS / JKDS, MMM
MMM = KEYB, KEYB, LUCO, BAUD / ONG, RILLA / ONG, DHUBER, GABE / JKDS
DHUB = KEYB, KEITH, ONG / ONG / ONG, ONG / ONG, JKDS, MMM, JKDS
BID = ONG / KEYB, RILLA / ONG, DHUBER, ONG, GABE / DHUBER
HOOP = BID, KEITH / RILLA / GABE / DHUBER, JKDS

Here are some numbers pulled from this affecting the living:
ONG = 13 votes cast, 6 diff ppl, 2/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 10 votes, 3/5 still alive have hit him
DHUB = 10 votes cast, 5 diff ppl, 1/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 7 votes, 4/5 still alive have hit him
KEYB = 14 votes cast, 6 diff ppl, 2/4 accuracy, has rcvd 4 votes, 3/5 still alive have hit him
MMM = 10 votes cast, 8 diff ppl, 4/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 4 votes, 3/5 still alive have hit him
HOOP = 6 votes cast, 6 diff ppl, 3/4 accuracy, has rcvd 1 vote, 1/5 still alive have hit him
BID = 8 votes cast, 5 diff ppl, 2/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 1 vote, 1/5 still alive has hit him

Strangely, all lynch voters are still alive and spread out.
KEYB is most prolific voter, has received only 4 votes all game, but been nomd by 3 of the living.
ONG has highest votes against, been nomd by 3 of the living.
MMM spreads it around, nomd 8 diff ppl in 10 votes, is 100% accurate, has low votes against, 3 living hits.
DHUBER is least accurate 25%, but 80% of the living have nomd him, voted Ong 5x or half his votes.
BID is a low voter, also spreads, nomd 5 diff ppl w/8 votes, has only been voted on once, by Hoopy.
HOOPY is lowest voter and hit a diff person every time, very accurate voter, voted on only once by Keyb.

Here are some questions I have:
-How has MMM been so deadly accurate with his votes? He's that good or don't use votes to hunt.
-How has Hoopy voted so near-perfectly with merely 6 votes? Same as above.
-Why has Dhuber voted so heavily against Ong but sits on me on this important day?
-Is a 100% vote accuracy (MMM) a wolf track or is a 1/4 accuracy (Dhuber) a tell?
-How has BID/Hoopy only gotten 1 vote each? Are they that V or just low key?

-Is there something to be gleaned from who voted for/against whom?
---MMM hasn't voted for Hoopy or BID and he's never been voted against by Hoopy or BID.
---Dhub hasn't voted for Hoopy or BID and he's never been voted against by Ong.
---Ong hasn't voted for Keyb, Hoop, BID, Dhuber and he's never been voted against by Keyb or Hoop.
---BID hasn't voted for MMM or Hoop and he's never been voted against by Ong, Dhuber, Keyb, MMM.
---Keyb hasn't voted for Ong or BID and he's never been voted against by Ong or Hoopy.
---Hoopy hasn't voted for Ong, Keyb, or MMM and he's never been voted against by Ong, Hoop, BID, MMM.

The wolf pair, acting as a team (presumably), are in this data somewhere...

[Keybored]

^^ Crap...sorry the formatting didn't work on the Day 1-4 columns. You'll have to use the "equal" sign to distinguish betw days.

[Keybored]

Fixed columns without editing (I'm a little Mod-shy)...sorry to blow up your monitor! Disregard the one above.

Here's the entire vote breakdown. Voter first, Votee(s) next. Voter names are listed in the chrono order they voted. I.e., d1 first to vote was Ong and last to vote was Luco. Last votee to right of each voter is their counted vote. *name* is lynch vote.

DAY1 (BAUDIB LYNCH)
ONG = BAUD, KEITH, BAUD, KEITH, BAUD
JKDS= BAUD, ONG
BAUD= DAVEN, DHUBER, ONG
MMM= KEYB, KEYB, LUCO, *BAUDIB*
DHUB= KEYB, KEITH, ONG
GABE= DHUBER, BAUDIB
KEYB= BAUDIB, JKDS
HOOP= BID, KEITH, (no vote)
KEITH= BID
DAVN= BAUDIB
BID= ONG
RILLA= BAUDIB, KEITH
LUCO= KEITH

DAY2 (RILLA LYNCH)
BID= KEYB, RILLA
DHUB= ONG
ONG= RILLA, JKDS, *RILLA*
GABE= KEYB
KEYB= GABE, HOOPY, JKDS, DHUBER
MMM= ONG, RILLA
RILLA= DHUBER
LUCO= RILLA, JKDS, RILLA
DAVN= JKDS
JKDS= ONG
HOOP= RILLA

DAY3 (GABE LYNCH)
BID= ONG, DHUB, ONG, *GABE*
JKDS= ONG
MMM= ONG, DHUB, GABE
ONG= JKDS, GABE, JKDS
DHUB= ONG, ONG
KEYB= MMM, DHUB, GABE, JKDS, GABE
LUCO= JKDS, DHUB, GABE, JKDS, GABE
HOOP= GABE
GABE= ONG

DAY4 (JKDS LYNCH)
DHUB= ONG, JKDS, MMM, *JKDS*
ONG= JKDS, MMM
MMM= JKDS
KEYB= MMM, DHUB, JKDS
JKDS= MMM
HOOP= DHUB, JKDS
BID= DHUB

__________________________________________________ ________________________

KEYB = BAUD, JKDS / GABE, HOOPY, JKDS, DHUB / MMM, DHUB, GABE, JKDS, GABE / MMM, DHUB, JKDS
ONG = BAUD, KEITH, BAUD, KEITH, BAUD / RILLA, JKDS, RILLA / JKDS, GABE, JKDS / JKDS, MMM
MMM = KEYB, KEYB, LUCO, BAUD / ONG, RILLA / ONG, DHUBER, GABE / JKDS
DHUB = KEYB, KEITH, ONG / ONG / ONG, ONG / ONG, JKDS, MMM, JKDS
BID = ONG / KEYB, RILLA / ONG, DHUBER, ONG, GABE / DHUBER
HOOP = BID, KEITH / RILLA / GABE / DHUBER, JKDS

Here are some numbers pulled from this affecting the living:
ONG = 13 votes cast, 6 diff ppl, 2/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 10 votes, 3/5 still alive have hit him
DHUB = 10 votes cast, 5 diff ppl, 1/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 7 votes, 4/5 still alive have hit him
KEYB = 14 votes cast, 6 diff ppl, 2/4 accuracy, has rcvd 4 votes, 3/5 still alive have hit him
MMM = 10 votes cast, 8 diff ppl, 4/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 4 votes, 3/5 still alive have hit him
HOOP = 6 votes cast, 6 diff ppl, 3/4 accuracy, has rcvd 1 vote, 1/5 still alive have hit him
BID = 8 votes cast, 5 diff ppl, 2/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 1 vote, 1/5 still alive has hit him

Strangely, all lynch voters are still alive and spread out.
KEYB is most prolific voter, has received only 4 votes all game, but been nomd by 3 of the living.
ONG has highest votes against, been nomd by 3 of the living.
MMM spreads it around, nomd 8 diff ppl in 10 votes, is 100% accurate, has low votes against, 3 living hits.
DHUBER is least accurate 25%, but 80% of the living have nomd him, voted Ong 5x or half his votes.
BID is a low voter, also spreads, nomd 5 diff ppl w/8 votes, has only been voted on once, by Hoopy.
HOOPY is lowest voter and hit a diff person every time, very accurate voter, voted on only once by Keyb.

Here are some questions I have:
-How has MMM been so deadly accurate with his votes? He's that good or don't use votes to hunt.
-How has Hoopy voted so near-perfectly with merely 6 votes? Same as above.
-Why has Dhuber voted so heavily against Ong but sits on me on this important day?
-Is a 100% vote accuracy (MMM) a wolf track or is a 1/4 accuracy (Dhuber) a tell?
-How has BID/Hoopy only gotten 1 vote each? Are they that V or just low key?

-Is there something to be gleaned from who voted for/against whom?
---MMM hasn't voted for Hoopy or BID and he's never been voted against by Hoopy or BID.
---Dhub hasn't voted for Hoopy or BID and he's never been voted against by Ong.
---Ong hasn't voted for Keyb, Hoop, BID, Dhuber and he's never been voted against by Keyb or Hoop.
---BID hasn't voted for MMM or Hoop and he's never been voted against by Ong, Dhuber, Keyb, MMM.
---Keyb hasn't voted for Ong or BID and he's never been voted against by Ong or Hoopy.
---Hoopy hasn't voted for Ong, Keyb, or MMM and he's never been voted against by Ong, Hoop, BID, MMM.

The wolf pair, acting as a team (presumably), are in this data somewhere...

[MadMojoMonkey]

-How has MMM been so deadly accurate with his votes? He's that good or don't use votes to hunt.

I feel like I've already gone through the ringer about each of my votes. If you have a specific question, I'll take it.

This is my 4th game.

Use any means you find to hunt.

My gut says that it's the story that you have to find; part of the story is the votes.

[BankItDrew]

lynch MMM

[BankItDrew]

So I'm going over vote data and I came upon a slip. I don't know how important it is but I think it should be mentioned. I'd like to know what others think. On D2, we voted to lynch Rilla. Quoted below are BIDs only two votes that day. His first nom is Keybored:



In BID's second vote, he votes to RESCIND ONG...then votes Rilla:



BID was sitting on a KB nom but said rescind Ong.
I've analyzed every single vote cast on each day and this is the only slip I've found.

Obv, he'll claim that Ong was clearly on his mind.
But nobody else has made this mistake in the nearly 100 votes cast to date.
Does this slip mean anything?

Tbh

I get a boner for being the nail in the wolf coffin.

It's a high risk high reward sort of thinking.

[BankItDrew]

Sometimes, whrn I'm a villager, it backfires.

This is exactly why it's awesome though.

[BankItDrew]

I had MMM as a lock villager. But he's been crazy recently.

I don't want spastic players on my team, whether it's a wolf team or a village team. I swear to jesus I thought he was 100% village. Then he went crazy.

[BankItDrew]

Oh yeah. And F dhubermex

[Keybored]

I'm gonna give BID a drunk-lean for those last few outbursts.

[Hoopy]

Cleared from what, Hoops? Something specific or the entire game?

All of them have something that indicates they aren't wolves. I shouldn't have said cleared.

You two though, I can't find a reason why you aren't wolves.

Hoops...do you honestly believe two noobs are pulling this off? I understand poking one of us at a time to gain info. If it's a poke, it's elementary and you're clearly more capable. This conclusion has me questioning your entire game now.

New yes, incapable of pulling this off no. Both of you are obviously switched on, especially you with the amount of effort you've put in.

[Hoopy]

I'd say the most likely pair is hoopy/BID.

BID looks bad in all kinds of ways. None of the kudos he's received have been role-related. Increased involvement and "because he didn't care before, but now he does" could well be wolfy from BID.

hoopy looks terrible in the first few pages up to the rilla vote.
hoopy/BID makes sense if the wolves wanted to drop rilla.
hoopy's most potent claim to V-status came from confirmed villagers reading the rilla vote as villager lead.

It's about 3 hours from the end of day 2 and JKDS is looking like the lynch of the day. Him dying is great for the wolves as he's usually a very good villager. Suddenly 1 wolf thinks it'd be a good idea to push hard for his teammate and votes, then encourages others to do the same. The last wolf hops on 20mins later and now a wolf gets lynched rather than a villager.

How does this make any sense? What possible benefit do the wolves get?

[Hoopy]

Cleared from what, Hoops? Something specific or the entire game?

I had MMM as a lock villager. But he's been crazy recently.

I don't want spastic players on my team, whether it's a wolf team or a village team. I swear to jesus I thought he was 100% village. Then he went crazy.

If we get this lynch wrong we are relying on the angels to save the game for us.

MMM is not a good lynch today.

[Keybored]

It's dhubs/keybored.

[QUOTE=Hoopy;2214601]New yes, incapable of pulling this off no.QUOTE]

If we get this lynch wrong we are relying on the angels to save the game for us. MMM is not a good lynch today.

I get it now, Hoopy...It's village clearing time. I happen to agree that the chances are high of a noob wolf in the last two. Hence my pressure on Dhubs for so long now. However, consider this. I'm not afraid of being lynched early if it helps advance the effort but I think it's too late in the game to be making sacrifices instead of making sound decisions. So, if u insist on cleaning house, choose very carefully cuz indeed we cannot afford a mislynch. Also, don't let your strategy distract you from hunting BOTH wolves. If you see one and it looks/feels right, then take the higher percentage shot. Cheers, mate.

[OngBonga]

I'd say the most likely pair is hoopy/BID.

I feel like this is an appeal to paranoia. This is not long after I suggest if hoopy is a wolf then drew is his buddy.

You ask for cases from me, where's your case on hoopy/drew? You say they look awful blah blah. That's not a case. That's rhetoric.

mojo > doobs > drew > keyb > hoopy

[OngBonga]

I'm not directly calling you out other than your lack of detective work... but you're here in the thread... so why are you just reacting to me?

Last night I was refreshing the page maybe once every two hours while I watched shit on tv. I was responding to you because you were online too but I wasn't reading the thread or anything, nor was this game high up on my priority list yesterday. Today is different. I have poker and ww, that's my sunday.

[OngBonga]

Ok this is the numbers spazz from mojo -

I'm not sure it helps, but I can't but wonder:

How did the dead thread cast 4 votes onto 6 living and not save Luco?

Oh.. it was 4 onto 8... I'm stuck thinking about what happens after the JKDS/ong thing is sorted.

Nah, I was looking at what happens to the numbers when flips happen... so my head was thinking about the coming night after a JKDS vs ong wagon.

Dig me up, ong. You've been so focused on JKDS that the village needs your input across the field.

Ok first of all it makes no sense for a villager to think the dead thread has 6 to choose from. It does make sense for a wolf to see 6 villagers. This can be a pov slip.

What's really interesting is he goes on to explain that the reason he got 6 was because he was considering our flips. Not only does this feel a little weird (why does he forget to consider the two most dominant players at this point of the game), but does this not imply that he's expecting two villager flips? Why would he expect both of our flips otherwise? If either of us flip wolf, the other doesn't get lynched. It's like he's expecting one to flip villager and then the other one to get lynched afterwards.

This looks really bad to me.

I've been reading through from p10 and basically I think it's mojo-doobs.

[OngBonga]

Lynch OngBonga

This was doobs starting the day yesterday after luco flipped villager. Doesn't stop to consider if I kill luco, doesn't stop to consider if he's wrong about me after being wrong about luco. This is very much charachteristic of doob's whole game. Refuses to move from early game reads based on gut.

35 posts later he turns up and backs off, saying he needs to go back and reconsider based on luco flip. drew accuses him of using lots of words to say very little.

hoopy starts to turn on doober, and doober suddenly changes his tune and starts digging properly.

After reading through, he now thinks I'm golden and wants jkds strung up. When jkds flips villager, doobs turns on me again.

He says my reaction to jkds arroing is fake. Well as it happens, I think if I'm a wolf, what I'd actually do is start digging around under the assumption jkds is wolf, which is precisely what doobs and mojo did. Those are the two reactions I consider "forced".

Yup. mojo-doobs.

Taking a break, back in an hour or two.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I feel like this is an appeal to paranoia. This is not long after I suggest if hoopy is a wolf then drew is his buddy.

You ask for cases from me, where's your case on hoopy/drew? You say they look awful blah blah. That's not a case. That's rhetoric.

mojo > doobs > drew > keyb > hoopy

It would have been an appeal to paranoia if that was the whole post, but it wasnt. I posted an outline of why my thoughts were leaning that way.

I said I've re-read up to post 525. I left my thoughts on what it looks like at that point. "looking most likely" is not the same as making an accusation and if I did, then it would only have been based on info in 1/2 the thread, so it wouldn't be a good case.

This reactionary, in the moment, no history type of thoughts coming from you, ong, are what I find most concerning. I removed my bold from you because I don't have a good case for you, but you stink to me right now. Maybe the reason you stink is because you legit think I'm a wolf and don't want to engage my arguments. Or maybe it's because I'm missing something about you, and I need to give you space.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Ok this is the numbers spazz from mojo -







Ok first of all it makes no sense for a villager to think the dead thread has 6 to choose from. It does make sense for a wolf to see 6 villagers. This can be a pov slip.

What's really interesting is he goes on to explain that the reason he got 6 was because he was considering our flips. Not only does this feel a little weird (why does he forget to consider the two most dominant players at this point of the game), but does this not imply that he's expecting two villager flips? Why would he expect both of our flips otherwise? If either of us flip wolf, the other doesn't get lynched. It's like he's expecting one to flip villager and then the other one to get lynched afterwards.

This looks really bad to me.

I've been reading through from p10 and basically I think it's mojo-doobs.

OK, you don't believe my explanation. It looks bad in the light of baud. I get that. Now make a story around it that makes sense.

"Does this imply that he's expecting 2 villager flips"
It was a matter of me miscounting the living because I was just finishing spending a long time revising the way the numbers flow in that chart. I had screwed up a bunch of night actions as day actions and vise-versa, so I had to revise a lot and then double-check.

"Why would he expect both of our flips otherwise?"
I was not thinking of the correct living count, so there were so speculated flips in my head.

So you drop, "basically I think it's mojo-doobs" and that's somehow different from me saying, "hoopy/BID looks most likely"?
It's this kind of hypocrisy that makes me want to keep attention on you, ong.

[Keybored]

Yup. mojo-doobs.

I'm obv seeing yer Doob vision. But if MMM, then did the wolves in fact purposely kill 2 W's to start? I just can't get behind that strat with Rilla and MMM making the calls.

On d1-d2, BID/Doob barely touched either wolf in voting. That's more like W's hiding vote pattern. D3, BID/Doob were all over Ong but couldn't close the deal. D4, BID gives a token Doob lynch vote and Doob casts the final mislynch JKDS vote. Today, BIDs gone off the reservation and Doobs posted his suicide note. And even if drunk last night, BID's F-doob comment is wrong on so many levels. I'm so sketchy about these two, it ain't funy.

[MadMojoMonkey]

It's about 3 hours from the end of day 2 and JKDS is looking like the lynch of the day. Him dying is great for the wolves as he's usually a very good villager. Suddenly 1 wolf thinks it'd be a good idea to push hard for his teammate and votes, then encourages others to do the same. The last wolf hops on 20mins later and now a wolf gets lynched rather than a villager.

How does this make any sense? What possible benefit do the wolves get?

The wolves get to drop daven without contest that night. The wolves can hide in the rilla lynch mob for cred.

If the wolves decide to drop JKDS instead of rilla, there's a chance that rilla dies the next day anyway, but the wolves gave up sure control of the kill on daven.

Whoever the remaining wolves are, it looks like they have a good chance of riding the cred off the rilla kill for at least a game day if not 2 or more, which as we can now see, puts the village in a do-or-die scenario. Not completely, but the wolves are in a goodstrong position right now.

It's a gamble, but not even a bad one. The 2nd wolf dying on day 2 is easy to spin as "there's no way the wolves wanted that." Which I did. Many times. The convoluted fact that the dead control could have gone 2 ways messed me up, too. I would have def used the night angel saves differently if I was on the wolf team.

The revive was a near certainty in the early game UNLESS the GA saves are gone. So I was thinking that since the wolves weren't playing that way, that they hadn't thought it through to put 2 wolves in 2 nights to the dead thread. Now, though, it's perfectly possible that the wolves thought that there were only a handful of strong villagers in the mix, and that it would be far more beneficial to get the strong villagers out of the thread ASAP. Which might be a higher EV strat than otherwise, but they DO have to deal with the revive of presumably the strongest villager.


***
There's a way that it makes sense. Do you agree?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I want a serious answer to my "what is this" comment ong. (post #1027)

In one post, you call out JKDS for a "preemptive attack" being wolfy. Then in the other, you preemptively attack me.

What I find most strange is that you lump BID into it.
Why are you protecting BID?
Would vil-ong be so certain about BID that he'd protect him like this?

[Keybored]

MMM...it's a huge leap of faith for the W's to drop 2 then, short handed, expect to take out monsters like Keith, Gabe, JKDS, Luco. Sure, they've dropped those dudes but no way they go all in with that hand on d1.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I feel like this is an appeal to paranoia. This is not long after I suggest if hoopy is a wolf then drew is his buddy.

You ask for cases from me, where's your case on hoopy/drew? You say they look awful blah blah. That's not a case. That's rhetoric.

mojo > doobs > drew > keyb > hoopy

This post deserves another response.

I drop a post that seems to affirm your stance, here #1037

But lynching a wolf won't end it. Lynching a villager might. This feels like a slip. Why would a villager say "end it"?



I think if hoopy is a wolf then drew is his buddy. I don't think that's very likely but it's possible they threw rilla under the bus to give the two of them enough village cred to cruise to victory. But that's my paranoia talking there. Logic tells me it's not them two because it's you and one more.

Explain why your paranoia points to hoopy/BID, but your logic avoids it. Perhaps it is me being paranoid.

Do you think that rilla's play was anything other than self-bussing?

Explain why your logic says it's me.

Explain why I'm a wolf who's begging people to stay involved and keep posting. Explain why any wolf benefits from calling people out to drop their thoughts and ask great questions.

[OngBonga]

So you drop, "basically I think it's mojo-doobs" and that's somehow different from me saying, "hoopy/BID looks most likely"?
It's this kind of hypocrisy that makes me want to keep attention on you, ong.

Yes it's different, because I've been looking at you two for some time, while you throw hoopy-drew into the mix after I said that I think that if hoopy is a wolf drew would be his buddy.

As for this...

In one post, you call out JKDS for a "preemptive attack" being wolfy. Then in the other, you preemptively attack me.

A preemptive attack from jkds, I considered that wolfy due to the meta between us. He has a good understanding of my game, or at least he used to. I thought he anticipated me swinging for him to activity, and wanted to get the first punch in. I misread that situation, but I considered it wolfy from jkds because it was jkds incorrectly predicitng ong village bahaviour, suggesting either misread or ulterior motive. I considered the latter more likely in jkds' case.

That's a million miles away from suggesting you're preparing to attack me. I was making an observation there, hardly the same as a what I felt at the time was a preemptive attack like what jkds threw at me.

What I find most strange is that you lump BID into it.
Why are you protecting BID?
Would vil-ong be so certain about BID that he'd protect him like this?

I'm not protecting drew, again I'm merely making an observation. It felt to me at the time like you had your targets in mind already, which funnily enough is similar to the line doobs has taken most of this game.

Ooh more questions, you're doing a great job of trying to look like a busy villager, you're asking faster than I can answer.

Explain why your paranoia points to hoopy/BID, but your logic avoids it. Perhaps it is me being paranoid.

hoopy didn't save baudib d1, did lynch rilla d2. Yes he can be a wolf but there's more reason for him to be a villager than anyone imo.

Logic tells me that hoopy isn't a wolf. Paranoia on the other hand has me thinking that maybe it could've been a plan, but if it was a plan I think it's one that works because I'm not lynching hoopy today, and probably not drew.

Do you think that rilla's play was anything other than self-bussing?

rilla's play was standard rilla wolf. He did this when we got owned by cbee. Hoops and gizmo got fucked, I faked seer, leaving rilla on his own to fly under the radar and then throw in the towel in endgame. I don't recall rilla asking to be thrown under the bus that game, but it's possible he's done it this game. Certainly once he gets found out, I think the wolves accept his demise and as such I'm not taking a great deal from the votes. Hoopy looks good because not only did he turn on rilla, he didn't lynch me to save baudib. He could've.

Explain why your logic says it's me.

Well the main reason I'm refusing to beudge is that numbers spazz. I just don't see where that comes from if you're a villager. I'm not buying your explanation. I caught baudib with a slip like that, I think you fucked up too.

Explain why I'm a wolf who's begging people to stay involved and keep posting. Explain why any wolf benefits from calling people out to drop their thoughts and ask great questions.

Because a wolf does what he thinks he does as a villager.

[wufwugy]

bid - mmm
key - dhubs
dhubs - key

nobody - mmm, ong, hoops

mmm - 1
dhubs - 1
key - 1 (lead)

Day 5 ends at 3:00PM PST tomorrow, 27 hours and 40 minutes from now

[MadMojoMonkey]

MMM...it's a huge leap of faith for the W's to drop 2 then, short handed, expect to take out monsters like Keith, Gabe, JKDS, Luco. Sure, they've dropped those dudes but no way they go all in with that hand on d1.

If the thread is any indication, no one had a solid understanding of the mechanics in the early part of day 1.

You're right, it doesn't make sense to have been the plan for all of day 1. It seems to me that none of rilla's posts look villagery. So the wolf decision to take the gambit of killing the 2nd wolf may not have been made early day 1. It could have been something the wolves gradually latched on to as the baud wagon seemed to be gaining momentum, and the game mechanics were coming to be more understood.

The result of the 2 dead wolves:
Keith and Daven are nommed without contest.
BONUS:
Gabe is assumed to be dead by day 3 or 4 (latest).
Ong/JKDS were in the heat of it and it looks like at least 1 of them has to go.

If both JKDS/ong are villagers, then the wolves can be fairly assured that they can kill off 1 if not both of them with lynches.

:/

That basically clears ong in the baud exchange, because ong shined the light on the information that keith and daven used for their arguments.
Double shit.
If the wolves want to drop rilla, then why is ong so hard on JKDS, and why is ong so late to swing back to rilla?

Ongville making sense in early game.

Wait... By this theory... ong is cleared.

Shit.
If ong is a wolf, his initial argument against baud would have lacked teeth. It would have been something weak that he could point back to as, "I wasn't sure, but now I'm sure". It wouldn't be something that keith and daven can nuke.

***
OK. I need to do another full read.

Holes in this post?

[MadMojoMonkey]

ong convincing me more with his most recent post.

[Keybored]

@MMM...If the thread is any indication, no one had a solid understanding of the mechanics in the early part of day 1.

True. But, for us villagers, there wasn't a pressing need to comprehend the entire process. As seen, we just did our normal d1 thing, and poked around at the game mechanics as things popped up. The wolves, however, needed to know exactly how that mess would factor into their strategy ASAP cuz once one of them gets lynched, they all need to be working from the same rule book (dead thread and game thread alike). So they had only the beginning of d1 to get a grip on mechanics, determine a strategy, and put it to work so it'd be effective. That's why the determination of Rilla's late arrival is important. Was he afk or was he masterminding and planning?

@MMM...You're right, it doesn't make sense to have been the plan for all of day 1. It seems to me that none of rilla's posts look villagery. So the wolf decision to take the gambit of killing the 2nd wolf may not have been made early day 1. It could have been something the wolves gradually latched on to as the baud wagon seemed to be gaining momentum, and the game mechanics were coming to be more understood.

I agree that Rilla self lynched. And I think he truly was afk in the beginning cuz he's quite capable of planning while playing along. So, as I've said, Rilla showed up late, scoffed at drawing wolf, poo-poo'd the game makeup, then read the thread with Baud's foolish d1 too far gone to fix it. After that, I can't figure out what happened. Did Rilla et al make a master plan that involved a Rilla death or did he just say fuckit, I'll catch the next game? Thing is, if Rilla's death was the plan, why'd he do it so terribly? Or was that meant to throw us off? If he just didn't give a fuck, how does he bail on his team? Anyway, that's where my d1-d2 reasoning hits a dead end. Thus, I'm going on gut and thinking there's no way a wolf strat involves two dead and roll with 2v11.

[MadMojoMonkey]

The voting at the end of day 3 looks bad for BID.

#658 (2:23)

luco and hoopy are the strongest villager candidates imo

they were # 2 and #3 votes on the rilla wagon that took off at the end of Day 2

voting doesnt matter if the wolves had some ghost angel domination strategy... however luco's following reasons are harder to fake

gabe you havent cleared keybored? really? dude has independant thought in spades and hes in the thick of everything

tbh i wasnt focusing as much on his words as i was others' during the giant reread. i will be going over him since you brought it up. while reviewing i was focused more on picking apart the words of the main characters of todays debate

#659 (2:28)

gabe please go back and look at ONG and JKDS in terms of their INTERACTION WITH CONFIRMED WOLVES (rilla and baud) and tell me how ong comes off worse

#660 (2:35)

look at ONG and JKDS in terms of their INTERACTION WITH CONFIRMED WOLVES (rilla and baud) and tell me how ong comes off worse

I need to swallow my pride. I've been on ongs case from Day 1 but I never really had great reasons. It was more of a "omg I think I found a read on him and I want to look like a genius!"

rescind

Pride Swallowed

Gabe made a super wolfy post when he said he wasn't convinced hoopy and luco were villagers, who are as close to lock villagers as there can be.

lynch gabe

The timing of BID's vote on gabe looks wolfy as anything in the game.
By all appearances, BID's vote effectively cuts off gabe from placing a final reads post as a dying villager.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I wish we had a vig.

I'd forgotten bout this post.

Does a wolf ever post this?


In case it's not apparent, I'm continuing my read-through to current before I start again. So my promise of a re-read is simply on priority of completing my ongoing re-read. It's exactly reasons like this that I'm so mad at posters saying they're not going to participate for the majority of the game day.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Did Rilla et al make a master plan that involved a Rilla death or did he just say fuckit, I'll catch the next game?

By the time of rilla's death if not before the end of day 1, the wolves had a plan for rilla's death. It may not have been their plan A, but they certainly got a less-than-usual hit to their team's strength for the loss.

It's also worth noting that the wolves started this game with an extra member, so normally losing 2 on the first 2 days would mean lone-wolf has to play perfect to win. In this game, the wolves can lose 2 wolves in 2 days and still have 2 wolves left alive. The added mayhem of the first 2 days' votes is def. going to buy the remaining wolves some breathing room, especially if they can pull cred. from the lynch votes.

Thing is, if Rilla's death was the plan, why'd he do it so terribly? Or was that meant to throw us off?

Terrribly... or perfectly? If the wolves wanted to direct the villager's target to rilla, it worked. It would work again, every time.

I mean: rilla would have to do this as a villager in the next couple of games before the meta was absorbed by the group. It makes no sense to do this as a wolf before the meta is in everyone's mind.

If he just didn't give a fuck, how does he bail on his team?

He bails on his team by sending wuf a PM that says, "I'm not going to play; please find an alternate."
He does not bail on his team by hanging himself without a big picture idea that he's going off of.

[MadMojoMonkey]

This spins my head.

#702: Luco drops this comment about how dhubs is a villager, but capable of much more.

I feel bad because I've been overly abrasive with dhuber this game and he might not even be a wolf

I think I might have expected too much because of his strong performance last game (binked two wolves d1 + epic angel save)

Is this true? Did dhubs bink 2 wolves day 1 last game? Is this what dhubs is capable of as a villager?

@dhubs: Why were you on ong for so long? Why are you on keybored now?

***
I can't see anything but villager from keybored. I agree, he starts soft, then ramps up his game, but it strikes me that a lot of quality players take this approach.

He's putting original thought into the thread, not just following the flow of trends (which is BID's pronounced strategy in this game). He is digging up information on players and compiling it into posts so we can all benefit from his dig. He is engaged with people, asking and answering questions.

Mostly, I feel like his posts are 'genuine'. I feel like I see where he's coming from, and it doesn't feel forced.

***
@Anyone who thinks keybored is wolfy:
Do you disagree that these activities are pro-village?
Or do you disagree that keybored is honestly and genuinely doing these things?

If the latter: What posts of his seem dishonest or disingenuous?

[Keybored]

I'll be afk for a lot, if not all, of the next 48-60 hours.
Dhuber
MMM
ong
keybored
hoopy
this is the order in which I believe the wolves are.

lynch MMM

I'm cool with ppl having lives and don't place any neg value on it.

But BID said 1 thing and did another here.
No explanation, no references. Just a vote. And he's tilted off axis about something.
Dhuber posted a cray-cray letter and has said Adios Amigos.
BID/Dhuber could easily be the wolf team and I see this BID activity as a clear diversionary tactic.
And now that the game's getting down/dirty, I easily see them getting frustrated and/or giving up.

MMM & Ong are having what I see as two very strong players battling it out, truly interested in winning.
I also think they're both on the same team (V) but see the game thru different eyes.

Hoopy is lock village.

But who knows, there's a bit of time left for other inputs.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Hoopy is lock village.

I really don't think so. I think hoopy claimed false cred on rilla. I think hoopy/BID is the final pair.

I just finished my read through, and ong is almost def. village. So are you, key.

dhubs is such a long shot at being a wolf. Seriously long shot. I doubt it very much.

Hoopy/BID is my pick for wolf team.

***
Consider this a warning shot across the bow.

First things first: the rilla vote.

The wolves decide at some point to drop rilla.
They do the math, and even with me sitting there, they need 1 more vote to make it happen.
Hoopy votes and ralies Luco, who joins in and bolds rilla.
Now BID jumps on and puts rilla down.

Buying cred for both hoopy and BID. Cred that's lasted 2 days and even has sway today, since I have to show how it's fake cred.

I do believe that the wolves intended to drop rilla as I've stated and supported a few times. I've at least attempted to expose that it's not only possible, but also likely that the rilla vote was ultimately a wolf-lead ordeal.

[Keybored]

I think hoopy claimed false cred on rilla.
I think hoopy/BID is the final pair.
Hoopy/BID is my pick for wolf team.
***
Consider this a warning shot across the bow.

Hummm...I've always suspected a sleeper wolf at large and thought my money was good on Dhuber. Hoopy's never been on my radar as wolf; could be the sleeper tho. A Hoopy/BID combo? Could explain why the wolf team has succeeded so well. Wonder what they have to say...

[MadMojoMonkey]

#543

The hardest thing to do in this game is talk about why lynching a villager is a good idea, when you're the wolf.

This is part of a larger discussion with Luco about some comments baud made.

It's a strangely casual response and wording for BID to use in the context of the discussion.

[OngBonga]

I feel like if mojo is a wolf he's forced to attack whoever isn't his buddy out of doobs and keybored, ie someone who might get lynched. It strikes me as illogical to hope for a mislynch in hoopy-drew. wtf is going on if mojo isn't a wolf?

[MadMojoMonkey]

For reference: #560

As for doober, ive argued this before but its been ignored:

Baudib made a modkillable error day 1. Before Wuf could get to it, dhub posts this

My third game and I've finally rolled vanilla.

I really don't know what to make of baudib's posts. Of course some come off as wolfy, but they'd have to with as much as there is to read already. I'm not for a baudib lynch or wagon at this time. Post #58 is obv boo-hiss (glad he knows how to use that feature now so he can pwn spammers in his forums tho) and up to mod-wuf what to do about that.

Yea, its not unfair to uses posts based on mod-inaction w/e. But you cant unring a bell. This post was made and im not ignoring it. Dhuber defends baudib...when any second baudib can be modkilled and revealed as a wolf. Tell me, does a wolf ever do this? They discuss shit in the den, and a modkill possibility is serious and would have been discussed. With Baudib potentially on death row, does another wolf defend him like this? I think the answers no. This is certainly reason enough to let dhuber slide for a few days too .

Oh, btw, both Baudib and Rilla were voting for Dhuber day1 and were pushing it fairly hard. Dhuber gets a pass for now guys, cmon.

***
#572

JKDS #560 is a great argument for why dhuber is not a wolf, everybody who's on him should rescind.

#1041

Everyone else has something to clear them, dhubs and keybored do not. I prefer dhubs today as I'm more confident on him.

What has happened that has changed your mind, hoopy?

[MadMojoMonkey]

wtf is going on if mojo isn't a wolf?

Indeed.

[Hoopy]

For reference: #560


***
#572


#1041

What has happened that has changed your mind, hoopy?

Thinking about it more the wolves probably knew that baudib wasn't getting modkilled, because wuf is an easy going mod. So I don't think JKDS's argument is as sound.

[Hoopy]

The wolves decide at some point to drop rilla.

Why? Give me a reason.

If they wanted to drop rilla they would have started that plan in motion earlier in the day, not waited until the end of day and relied on a villager jumping on. And why would the wolves want to lose another team member on day 2 just for some credit.

[Hoopy]

The wolves get to drop daven without contest that night. The wolves can hide in the rilla lynch mob for cred.

If the wolves decide to drop JKDS instead of rilla, there's a chance that rilla dies the next day anyway, but the wolves gave up sure control of the kill on daven.

Whoever the remaining wolves are, it looks like they have a good chance of riding the cred off the rilla kill for at least a game day if not 2 or more, which as we can now see, puts the village in a do-or-die scenario. Not completely, but the wolves are in a goodstrong position right now.

It's a gamble, but not even a bad one. The 2nd wolf dying on day 2 is easy to spin as "there's no way the wolves wanted that." Which I did. Many times. The convoluted fact that the dead control could have gone 2 ways messed me up, too. I would have def used the night angel saves differently if I was on the wolf team.

The revive was a near certainty in the early game UNLESS the GA saves are gone. So I was thinking that since the wolves weren't playing that way, that they hadn't thought it through to put 2 wolves in 2 nights to the dead thread. Now, though, it's perfectly possible that the wolves thought that there were only a handful of strong villagers in the mix, and that it would be far more beneficial to get the strong villagers out of the thread ASAP. Which might be a higher EV strat than otherwise, but they DO have to deal with the revive of presumably the strongest villager.


***
There's a way that it makes sense. Do you agree?

No I don't, you're trying to make a complex explanation fit when a simple one works just fine. I keep saying that dead thread control isn't that important compared to keeping wolf numbers up.

lynch dhubermex

[Hoopy]

Maybe I'm wrong on keybored, that's for tomorrow though.

Not shifting from dhuber today.

[MadMojoMonkey]

No I don't, you're trying to make a complex explanation fit when a simple one works just fine. I keep saying that dead thread control isn't that important compared to keeping wolf numbers up.

lynch dhubermex

Please explain to me your simple explanation. I'm open to change my mind, if you have a good story.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Why? Give me a reason.

If they wanted to drop rilla they would have started that plan in motion earlier in the day, not waited until the end of day and relied on a villager jumping on. And why would the wolves want to lose another team member on day 2 just for some credit.

see my post #1081 and critique

[MadMojoMonkey]

Maybe I'm wrong on keybored, that's for tomorrow though.

Not shifting from dhuber today.

Targeting dhubs w/o naming a partner around which a compelling story can be told is the opposite of detective work i.e. it's wolfy.

Parking a vote w/o reflection also doesn't look good.

I would much prefer a BID lynch.

What are your thoughts on BID?

[OngBonga]

Ok here's a summary of drew...

#77 confused.
#195 no longer confused, reads post - protects baudib, suspicious of keith, votes me.
#196 agrees with my position vs keith - "The village goal is simple: kill the wolves."
#201 slaps down keyb for voting baudib rather than me.
#292 reaction to baudib flip seems legit.
#296 now starts to think maybe the wolves did want control of the dead thread.
#297 daven's beautiful quote - "there is no combination of four wolves that is this stupid, so don't worry your pretty head doll "
#306 keith points out that drew is basically rewording keith's ideas.
#325 thinks keyb is villager.
#326 says he still thinks I'm a wolf despite the baudib flip, suggesting I'm trying to impress the noobs.
#334 votes keybored! Says he'll happily switch to me.
#344 change of tone with me after I suggest doobs is wolfy.
#346 likes a doobs or ong lynch, more or less polar opposites.
#414 doesn't think jkds is wolf.
#415 prefers to lynch me over rilla, tries to convince luco to switch.
#422 reluctantly hops on rilla.
#445 analyses the rilla wagon... plays down my role as unimportant while clearing himself, hoopy, luco and mojo.
#446 plays down luco's role in the rilla wagon.
#448 swings for me, despite killing two wolves.

Ok so first 6 pages drew looks pretty bad. This is taking longer than I expected, half an hour already. This fucking game. Cup of tea time, I'll resume a drew read through shortly.

[Hoopy]

Please explain to me your simple explanation. I'm open to change my mind, if you have a good story.

See my earlier posts.

Targeting dhubs w/o naming a partner around which a compelling story can be told is the opposite of detective work i.e. it's wolfy.

Parking a vote w/o reflection also doesn't look good.

I would much prefer a BID lynch.

What are your thoughts on BID?

Are you his partner? Seems like you're slowly pushing me & drew as a wolf team.

I have said many times that drew is a villager.

[MadMojoMonkey]

See my earlier posts.

Are you his partner? Seems like you're slowly pushing me & drew as a wolf team.

I have said many times that drew is a villager.

Which posts, please?

Am I BID's partner? I really don't think so. I think there's a mountain of iffy-to-wolfy stuff BID's done in this game, and that for you to come down easily and solidly on BID as V is interesting.

I am openly (not slowly) pushing hoopy/BID. I'm really trying to avoid being "lock" on this read, because I screwed up on JKDS, and felt lock on him.

I believe it's hoopy/BID, and I've dropped significant posts to that end.
#1075, #1081, #1086, #1089

So poke holes in my hypothesis, or offer a better hypothesis.
If you've already offered your best hypothesis, then please reference, or summarize it before final vote today.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Sorry... Am I dhubs partner? I do think so.

I think he's a useless partner, who is almost, but not quite, exclusively cleared by circumstantial involvement.

I find that dhubs has been called the "weakest link" by about everyone in the thread. As ong pointed out, that makes him the easiest wolf target. dhubs has received a lot of attention from known wolves, which supports this theory.

When I read the thread, I see a lot of suspicion flying around dhubs, and some are quick to note the point I just made. Throughout the game, though, hoopy and BID seem to have a pronounced interest in dropping dhubs.

IF I'm right about hoopy/BID, then the way everyone has spoken about dhubs is reasonably sensible.

[OngBonga]

Following on...

#453 takes a shot at keyb again for swinging for baudib.
#466 waves his finger at luco for towning me.
#476 is a wall post from me where I took a look at drew... my conclusion then was wolf, albeit with jkds.
#520 mojo takes a serious stab at doobs.
#521 drew backs off me and swings for doobs while calling mojo a genius.
#653 clears luco and hoopy for rilla action.
#660 backs off me and swings for gabe, nailing his coffin.
#669 immediately comes swinging for me as soon as gabe flips.
#699 reads list - has doobs and keyb as wolves, jkds third pick.
#756 suggests luco was killed due to high village cred, which is not something I agree with.
#799 is now convinced that doobs and keyb are not both wolves, but still wants to string one of them up.

ok that's up to the end of p11. drew isn't looking as villager as I was hoping he would.

[MadMojoMonkey]

#1004

So here's my case...

Hoopy: Village - Was in the solid Village camp of the known Villagers and tendencies are heavy Village lean
BID: That same post I quoted of him backing JKDS... it now reveals heavy Village lean due to JKDS flip
MMM: The flow chart could just as easily mean Village lean, plus JKDS offered his thoughts at the end (without backtracking on any other reads I might add)
OngBonga: Was suspected by Keith early on. Also suspected by JKDS, had most "forced" reaction to JKDS arooing and also posted in the middle of my suspicion that Keybored had outed himself by paying me a compliment.
Keybored: Also suspected at some point by just about everyone. JKDS thinks he's a wolf, I now think he's a wolf and believe he compliment of me was forced in an effort to get us on an MMM wagon.

dhubs loves you, hoopy.

dhubs loves BID, too.

next post, dhubs bolds keybored and leaves it there until present.
dhubs hates keybored, too, hoopy

So what do you, hoopy, have against dhubs?

[OngBonga]

#852 swings for doober.
#906 wants to lynch doobs badly
#907 mojo easily his strongest town read, more so than hoopy.
#917 calls jkds' arooo "sick".
#941 laughs when jkds flips villager.
#942 says mojo looks like shit now.
#943 claims again doobs is a wolf.
#1009 we have a lynch preference... doob > mojo > ong > keyb > hoopy.
#1058 votes mojo early in the day when a mislynch could lose it for us.
#1061 explains his mojo vote as mojo being spastic.
#1062 fuck doobs.

That's it.

No smoking gun, but my problem is drew does indeed look wolfy, and I really can't see him being allied to doobs.

As for doobs, well he's also wolfy as hell but he looks a lot better if I assume drew is a wolf.

This is a tough spot. I'll read through hoopy shortly.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@keybored: please rescind dhubs and let ong get his reads in.

If BID flips to dhubs now, then dhubs was first to 2 votes and first to 3 votes.

hoopy could make some argument that changes my mind, but with ong agreeing (so far) on BID, I'm feeling even better about my read.

[OngBonga]

bid - mmm
key - dhubs
dhubs - key

nobody - mmm, ong, hoops

mmm - 1
dhubs - 1
key - 1 (lead)

Day 5 ends at 3:00PM PST tomorrow, 27 hours and 40 minutes from now

I *think* this gives us just over 4 hours, but British Summer Time ended yesterday and I'm not sure if it's taking that into account. If I'm wrong then it's +1 hr, so I'm assuming 4 hrs.

Can anyone clarify?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm reading it as ~4 hours as well.

[OngBonga]

hoopy -

#54 doesn't want to lynch baudib because activity and last game modkill.
#55 says he could go for drew or keyb.
#85 suggests a doober lynch.
#93 baudib has hoopy as a town read already, something I considered thin.
#126 baudib reads post, has mojo, jkds and hoopy as village reads. There's surely a wolf between mojo and hoopy.
#142 hoopy calls baudib out on the town read.
#143 votes for drew, claiming nothing personal but dangerous to let him get to endgame.
#195 drew responds to hoopy's vote, gives him a wolfy lean.
#209 hoopy backs off drew.
#245 still doesn't want to lynch baudib.
#266 votes keith near deadline.
#267 insta rescind.
-- baudib hangs. Note that hoopy was lurking as the deadline neared, he shown a willingness to make brave votes at deadline, yet doesn't vote me to save baudib, even though he said he didn't want to lynch baudib. This looks so good to me.
#275 says he thought we had more time, despite me posting a deadline update.
#362 points out that doober keeps mentioning he's a villager... something drew has done too.

ok that's up to p5. hoopy looks clean as a whistle already. There's some interesting interaction with drew but for hoopy to be a wolf he deliberately let baudib hang just so he'd look good to me. Is it worth losing a wolf to avoid having to take me on? I doubt it. I'm an egomaniac, but I don't actuall think everyone's game plan revolves around me. Other villagers won't give hoopy much v cred for saving me because only myself and the wolves know that I'm a villager.

Just got a text off a friend, I'm going for a pint, back in an hourish.

[Keybored]

@keybored: please rescind dhubs and let ong get his reads in. If BID flips to dhubs now, then dhubs was first to 2 votes and first to 3 votes. hoopy could make some argument that changes my mind, but with ong agreeing (so far) on BID, I'm feeling even better about my read.

Just catching up at lunch...Mondays!
I'm totally good with letting these chaps finish.
There's no hurry and I'll be online b4 day's end.
Rescind Dhubermex

[BankItDrew]

MMM has suddenly run the village into the ground. Dhuber has put the nail in the village coffin on a couple of occaisions now too.

MMM near single handedly lynched JKDS, who was a villager. And you're now going to listen to what he has to say?

[MadMojoMonkey]

MMM has suddenly run the village into the ground. Dhuber has put the nail in the village coffin on a couple of occaisions now too.

MMM near single handedly lynched JKDS, who was a villager. And you're now going to listen to what he has to say?

Please feel free to criticize my posts where I show my reasoning.

I'm open to anything you've got that make sense.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@BID: You think I'm a wolf. So you think wolves voted rilla.

So the wolves wanted rilla dead, then?

[OngBonga]

#418 this is where hoopy votes rilla.
#419 tries to get luco on the rilla wagon.
#421 throws more shit at rilla.
#422 drew drops me in favour of rilla.

^ this can be bussing, but it looks sincere to me.

#479 hoops clears luco for his part in the rilla wagon.
#571 votes gabe insisting he's a wolf.
#572 argues doobs is a villager based on jkds' read.
#574 thinks keyb is wolf.
#670 hoopy confident drew is a villager.

I'm done to p10, will finish off after a break. Hoopy looking good.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Day ends in less than 2 hours. I want to vote hoopy, but I'll accept BID.

I don't think dhubs is a good vote today.

I don't know who his partner could be; everyone wants to vote dhubs. That makes him the most likely easy target for the wolves at this point, which is V-cred.

***
No one seems to be making sense of rilla. No one seems to notice how Luco was saying that the wolves were JKDS/hoopy or JKDS/BID just before he was nommed.

***
dhubs is showing signs of detective work. ong is. key is. I am.

hoopy isn't. BID isn't.

***
lynch hoopy

[MadMojoMonkey]

@key: If you're going back onto dhubs, then give ong a bit more time to vote.

[OngBonga]

I still need to finish off a hoopy read (will do after dinner) but I'm near certain that I'm not voting him. However, mojo firing for him is plain weird if he's a wolf. Why wouldn't he meet me halfway and try to get drew lynched? Why vote for hoopy who I've read 2/3 of and have said he looks good?

It could be mojo-drew. I don't even know if that's viable without digging more.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Village: ME, ong, key
who's left: dhubs, hoopy, BID

Does dhubs/BID make sense in this game? Would rilla hang himself, leaving them in charge?
I don't think so.

I think hoopy/dhubs or hoopy/BID makes sense.
but I think hoopy/BID is far more likely.
Either way, hoopy is in there, so I think hoopy is more of a sure thing.


I will obv. switch to BID if that's where you and key come down.

***
You haven't responded to my posts { #1075, #1081, #1086, #1089 } where I make a better case for hoopy/BID.

[OngBonga]

Ok we have an hour. Let me get hoopy finished now.

You haven't responded to my posts { #1075, #1081, #1086, #1089 } where I make a better case for hoopy/BID.

I'll add it to my "to do" list.

[OngBonga]

Someone count the votes while I read hoopy's posts.

[MadMojoMonkey]

MMM - hoopy
Dhuber - keybored
Ong -
BID - MMM
Hoops - dhubs
Keybored -

1 vote each on hoopy, key, me, dhubs

key was first to 1 vote.
dhubs was first to 2 votes.

just under an hour to go.

[Keybored]

Looky here...I don't trust this world zone time hop guessing game enough to put my neck on it. I'm sitting on the L-1 vote right now and I'm afraid Wuf could swoop in any second. So, times up as far as I'm concerned. Back to my original position...
Lynch Dhubermex