TP OOP Facing Monochromatic Board

[daviddem]

I only included the weak top pair hands because of OP's read. But even with these included, it seems to be stretching it to justify a river value bet. I would tend to c/f, and there would be a case to be made for c/c if he bluffs most of the time when checked to.

secondly, is someone really gonna call 2x 3-quarter pot sized bets with TP/meh-kicker on that board?

He may find justified to call the flop and turn with top pair / meh kicker if his kicker is a heart. But then it's harder to see him calling a river shove.

I also wonder what hands a 37/34 flats preflop in MP. Also 37/34 at full ring is not just loose, it's more maniac.

[spoonitnow]

I only included the weak top pair hands because of OP's read. But even with these included, it seems to be stretching it to justify a river value bet. I would tend to c/f, and there would be a case to be made for c/c if he bluffs most of the time when checked to.

He may find justified to call the flop and turn with top pair / meh kicker if his kicker is a heart. But then it's harder to see him calling a river shove.

I also wonder what hands a 37/34 flats preflop in MP. Also 37/34 at full ring is not just loose, it's more maniac.

Two points to make here. First, short-handed players probably don't realize how loose 37/34 is in full ring. That would be something like 50/45 or so in six-max, for example.

Second, your logic on the bold doesn't make sense. From a point of view of balanced play, if a hand is only slightly too weak to value bet, then it goes into your check/call range instead of your check/fold range. Here's what Hero's range should look like on the river (not to scale):

<---bluff--|--check/fold--|--check/call--|--value bet-->

From the point of view of exploitative play, we'll need to have about 27% equity against Villain's betting range to make a +EV call. Being that bet bet check/call is the standard line to exploit loose idiots who can call twice with a lot of draws, it seems ridiculous to fold.

[DoubleJ]

...short-handed players probably don't realize how loose 37/34 is in full ring. That would be something like 50/45 or so in six-max....

true. i never even thought of that. however:

...what hands [does] a 37/34 flat preflop in MP...

is still an interesting question, 6Max or FR.

the only reliable way to find out is observation over a large number of hands, but what if we don't have that luxury?

Harrington has his rule-of-thumb thing of (VPIP-3bet)/2 for loose opponents. Does that have any value?