|
I've looked over that range and I think I defo underestimated the many combos of worse made hands and gutshots he'll peel with on the flop and maybe even the turn sometimes. given he's SUCH a whale preflop, he likely wont fold any piece of the board a huge amount and I overlooked this range being so wide.
However, the combination of him having shitloads of air in his range here and the information that he has somewhat spewy tendencies is going to make it the case that more often than not we're doing pretty damn well vs a turn leading range. Yeah sometimes we're making a mistake and we can't know exactly what his range will be for stabbing the turn for certain, but I think we can happily infer it'll be pretty damn weak. The fact he does have lol lol combos of crap to peel the flop with however may mean it's much closer provided he is a huge station postflop.
Concerning the draws, his flop range contains assloads of Ax and due to the fact he has every Ax under the sun, it contains way more of this than it does draws. We're also really not very far ahead of draws - so one street of money going in with loads of equity due to there being a high likelyhood that he has a weak stabbing range isn't obviously worse imo (again we have reason to believe this guy isn't a passive fish but a retarded one) We're not in awesome shape vs draws and hence any value we do get is minimal since they have so much equity. Him peeling with loads of worse made hands though and having more guttters than I first thought does balacne this and I don't mind betting the flop and turn due to this factor, defo not the river though.
|