Isolated fish, then got lost - $2NL 6Max

[Carroters]

Hold on a sec. You're assuming this guy will just donk out with Ax here on the flop all the time? this is ridiculous he has almost every combo of Ax when he checks to us here.

You can stove a calling range here and see how you do vs it on the flop, unless we assume he'll call with stuff like any PP (Don't think we can quite do this simply based only on his preflop stats on this board) we aren't going to be doing all that well. Yes there are some draws, but that's a very small part of this guy's range and we're not actually that far ahead of flush draws anyway so we don't get super +EVness by betting vs them.

Since we've seen villain stab at pots in the past, our equity is going to be likely far better vs his turn leading range than vs his flop calling range. As the former will include Ax, draws, air and better Qx; while the latter will include Ax, draws, less better Qx, and most importantly a lot of air!

You have to be insane to want to bet 3 streets for value and shove river with 2nd pair, it's just so bad. Just to clarify are you doing that for value? if so, stove a range that he calls your river shove with and see what your equity's like.

So here's the bottom line. Regardless of whether or not we're slightly +EV vs villains calling range by betting this flop (which is in itself optimistic) if we cannot bet 3 streets for value and can get money into the pot with far more equity by taking an alternative line, we should take that line.

Here the idea is that checking the flop makes our equity way better when a turn bet goes in and hence we select a more profitable street to get money into the pot in a case where we cannot get 3 streets and lose very little by checking the flop and in fact stand to gain a fair bit.

I fear most of this post will go entirely over your head but try to have a think about these ranges and how they behave relative to our actions. Stop dwelling on half concepts and, as Sruviva would call it, "poker rhetoric"

[Icanhastreebet]

So here's the bottom line. Regardless of whether or not we're slightly +EV vs villains calling range by betting this flop (which is in itself optimistic) if we cannot bet 3 streets for value and can get money into the pot with far more equity by taking an alternative line, we should take that line.

What about the times you only get 1street from draws? What about the times we end up calling turn/river bets v a range that we don't even have a clue how well we are doing. He spazzed on some raggedy board. This board has an ACE. Fish don't spazz on ace high boards nearly as much and if they do think about the eV you miss when he c/cs w/e draw on the turn for a psb(yay!) that you could have got the same amount of $ for on the flop + another nearly psb on the turn. Please show me a realistic eV calc that's going to net more eV when we check the flop as opposed to betting the flop based on a fishes tendencies on this board type.

[Carroters]

I've looked over that range and I think I defo underestimated the many combos of worse made hands and gutshots he'll peel with on the flop and maybe even the turn sometimes. given he's SUCH a whale preflop, he likely wont fold any piece of the board a huge amount and I overlooked this range being so wide.

However, the combination of him having shitloads of air in his range here and the information that he has somewhat spewy tendencies is going to make it the case that more often than not we're doing pretty damn well vs a turn leading range. Yeah sometimes we're making a mistake and we can't know exactly what his range will be for stabbing the turn for certain, but I think we can happily infer it'll be pretty damn weak. The fact he does have lol lol combos of crap to peel the flop with however may mean it's much closer provided he is a huge station postflop.

Concerning the draws, his flop range contains assloads of Ax and due to the fact he has every Ax under the sun, it contains way more of this than it does draws. We're also really not very far ahead of draws - so one street of money going in with loads of equity due to there being a high likelyhood that he has a weak stabbing range isn't obviously worse imo (again we have reason to believe this guy isn't a passive fish but a retarded one) We're not in awesome shape vs draws and hence any value we do get is minimal since they have so much equity. Him peeling with loads of worse made hands though and having more guttters than I first thought does balacne this and I don't mind betting the flop and turn due to this factor, defo not the river though.

[surviva316]

Concerning the draws, his flop range contains assloads of Ax and due to the fact he has every Ax under the sun, it contains way more of this than it does draws.

since he's an 81/13 over a respectable sample, he probably has about as much 8x as he does Ax (would raise AJ pre and prolly some other random combos of Ax, and the only 8x he doesn't have in his range is like 82o-86o).

so he doesn't need that many draws to begin with, there are a shit ton of draws in his range, and like half of those draws are gutshots whose equity you're vastly over-estimating against our second pair hand. i mean, A-high vs a range of FD's, OESD's and a few GSSD's i agree isn't that big of a favorite; but second pair against a range of FD's and a shittonne of GSSDs that can have no more than one over to our pair isn't really a negligible favorite (esp since we have backdoors to the vast majority of FD combos)

[Carroters]

Yeah him having loads of gutters we're doing really well against obv changes things. If he's really stationy and peeling with all these + all 8x and crap then our equity when called is gonna look heaps better and betting flop and turn will be fine.