Isolated fish, then got lost - $2NL 6Max

A fish sat directly on my right he was running 81/13 over about 70 hands. He had sat down orignally with 70bbs and was 1 tabling and was also in a freeroll, he wasnt brilliant and had open limped button etc.. Relevant notes are that he Overbet pot on river after min betting turn with K8s on 4Q225, after limping pre. So I was trying to isolate him a lot and playing post-flop with him as the rest of the table seems to be playing straight forward ignoring him.

The question here, is that is Q9o too weak too isolate and should I be betting turn here, as I dont think I should bet flop for pot control. River call or fold?? - Basically I have no idea if I playing any street right???????

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($2.49)
MP ($1.74)
Hero (Button) ($5.35)
SB ($1.95)
BB ($4.04)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, 9
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, Hero bets $0.10, 2 folds, MP calls $0.08
Flop: ($0.23) 8, A, Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.23) A (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks
River: ($0.23) 9 (2 players)
MP bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12
Total pot: $0.47 | Rake: $0.03

i for one would fold Q9o in BUTT, even any other pos, Q9s i would raise

as played i would bet flop b/f flop 2/3, b/f turn 2/3, shove river.

nh sir - i like all streets. villain has 9x/8x/KJ etc here > 25% of the time.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

as played i would b/f flop 2/3,

for value or for retard?

edit - for value is ok, if you can explain why. Not if it's just cos you like the bet button.

Yeah I don't understand a cbet.

I'm ok with how you played it. Sometimes I bet turn but you've seen him go apeshit with air so I like inducing more.

Folding pre would be really bad. You can open almost atc profitably in that spot. Flop is good with reads. I would bet the turn. - you get value from draws and worse. Obviously call river. Bet river when checked to.

Originally Posted by daven

for value or for retard?

edit - for value is ok, if you can explain why. Not if it's just cos you like the bet button.

i would bet for value. he ck flop, isnt the best flop to cbet cause FD and gutshot, but i am IP and i have 2nd pair and some SD value, if he is on a draw i dont want to give him a free card and by pre raise i can easily repp an A here.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

i for one would fold Q9o in BUTT, even any other pos, Q9s i would raise

as played i would bet flop b/f flop 2/3, b/f turn 2/3, shove river.

As played you would turn your hand into a spewy bluff vs a massive station who will never fold Ax or better when you beat any hand he does fold and will by betting 3 streets eliminate every worse hand from his calling range?

Originally Posted by Razvan729

i would bet for value. he ck flop, isnt the best flop to cbet cause FD and gutshot, but i am IP and i have 2nd pair and some SD value, if he is on a draw i dont want to give him a free card and by pre raise i can easily repp an A here.

None of this is any of a reason to do anything and is simply a list of poker jargon you've heard not being applied to the actual spot. What worse hands is he calling you with on the flop, that's kind of important when betting for value. Being IP and having SD value are both just facts you've randomly jotted down about the hand and in no way whatsoever make this more of a bet and in fact make it less of one.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

i would bet for value. he ck flop, isnt the best flop to cbet cause FD and gutshot, but i am IP and i have 2nd pair and some SD value, if he is on a draw i dont want to give him a free card and by pre raise i can easily repp an A here.

why are you saying you're betting for value but also that it's a bad board to cbet due to all the GSs and FDs which you're getting value from

Ohh yeah I'd bet the turn since on this card he'll look up a street with worse pairs and a variety of draws, betting turn is better than betting river. Obviously a call as playedon the river. You can iso a lot wider than Q9s here, Q9o would certainly be an iso preflop.

a 2nl 81/13 will call with any draw and any Q, but for sure will bet an A. so i get value from his draws and worst Q. this is why i bet here against this guy. maybe with another opp isnt good this play, but for this villain is from i played at 2nl. you can make a lot of money from these cause they call almost any on this board. it is not a general play i would make, just with this opp on this board.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

i would bet for value. he ck flop, isnt the best flop to cbet cause FD and gutshot, but i am IP and i have 2nd pair and some SD value, if he is on a draw i dont want to give him a free card and by pre raise i can easily repp an A here.

reasoning makes some sense - you're betting for value vs the draws in his range. Only downside is that there are fewer draws in his range than it would appear, and a decent number of Ax. Do some range stuff on this (i.e. count some combos) and you may reconsider a bet. Repping an ace is fine, except that it doesn't mean anything, there are very few hands he could have that beat Q9 but don't beat A4...

Originally Posted by Razvan729

a 2nl 81/13 will call with any draw and any Q, but for sure will bet an A.

i like absolutes
but this is ridiculous

it's worth noting that a 2nl 81-13 is much the same as a 100nl 81-13, and they'll check-call Ax here often enough, and there are a lot less draws on this flop than you seem to imagine.

ok, i am wrong , never said i am right, just the way i think the hand and its no surprise to me that i am wrong one of the reason i write them so i can be said i am wrong...
so then, on this board against this villain, what do we bet for value, what do we c/c and what do we c/f?

Hold on a sec. You're assuming this guy will just donk out with Ax here on the flop all the time? this is ridiculous he has almost every combo of Ax when he checks to us here.

You can stove a calling range here and see how you do vs it on the flop, unless we assume he'll call with stuff like any PP (Don't think we can quite do this simply based only on his preflop stats on this board) we aren't going to be doing all that well. Yes there are some draws, but that's a very small part of this guy's range and we're not actually that far ahead of flush draws anyway so we don't get super +EVness by betting vs them.

Since we've seen villain stab at pots in the past, our equity is going to be likely far better vs his turn leading range than vs his flop calling range. As the former will include Ax, draws, air and better Qx; while the latter will include Ax, draws, less better Qx, and most importantly a lot of air!

You have to be insane to want to bet 3 streets for value and shove river with 2nd pair, it's just so bad. Just to clarify are you doing that for value? if so, stove a range that he calls your river shove with and see what your equity's like.

So here's the bottom line. Regardless of whether or not we're slightly +EV vs villains calling range by betting this flop (which is in itself optimistic) if we cannot bet 3 streets for value and can get money into the pot with far more equity by taking an alternative line, we should take that line.

Here the idea is that checking the flop makes our equity way better when a turn bet goes in and hence we select a more profitable street to get money into the pot in a case where we cannot get 3 streets and lose very little by checking the flop and in fact stand to gain a fair bit.

I fear most of this post will go entirely over your head but try to have a think about these ranges and how they behave relative to our actions. Stop dwelling on half concepts and, as Sruviva would call it, "poker rhetoric"

Daven already got there before me lol, but yeah consider my post an expanded version of what he's saying to you.

Fold Q9o OTB vs 80 VP$IP? Cripes, pick any of the 169 starting hands, doesn't matter, I'm playing it vs this guy. As for the hand, checking the flop is better than c-betting. I'd 1/2 pot the turn tho b/c he calls with crap since lol we're bluffing him.

lol, since you guys are too lazy to and don't understand how to beat passive fish I thought I'd just plop this little thing in this thread and let you guys go from there.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.952% 57.36% 02.59% 241337 10910.00 { Qs9c }
Hand 1: 40.048% 37.46% 02.59% 157593 10910.00 { 88-22, ATs-A2s, KTs, Ks9s, K8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, Q2s+, J8s+, Js7s, Js6s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Js2s, T8s+, Ts7s, Ts6s, Ts5s, Ts4s, Ts3s, Ts2s, 98s, 9s7s, 9s6s, 9s5s, 9s4s, 9s3s, 9s2s, 82s+, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 7s3s, 7s2s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 6s3s, 6s2s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 5s2s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s, AJo-A2o, KJo-KTo, K8o, Q2o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o, 85o+ }

Note: This doesn't include retard c/cs like Khigh, Backdoor flush draws, Spazz calls.
Note: Villain will c/r some non 0% but he so passive that his c/r range will be super strong and gives us an easy bet/fold early in the hand. Think about how this affects his c/c range and go from there.

Originally Posted by Carroters

So here's the bottom line. Regardless of whether or not we're slightly +EV vs villains calling range by betting this flop (which is in itself optimistic) if we cannot bet 3 streets for value and can get money into the pot with far more equity by taking an alternative line, we should take that line.

What about the times you only get 1street from draws? What about the times we end up calling turn/river bets v a range that we don't even have a clue how well we are doing. He spazzed on some raggedy board. This board has an ACE. Fish don't spazz on ace high boards nearly as much and if they do think about the eV you miss when he c/cs w/e draw on the turn for a psb(yay!) that you could have got the same amount of $ for on the flop + another nearly psb on the turn. Please show me a realistic eV calc that's going to net more eV when we check the flop as opposed to betting the flop based on a fishes tendencies on this board type.

I've looked over that range and I think I defo underestimated the many combos of worse made hands and gutshots he'll peel with on the flop and maybe even the turn sometimes. given he's SUCH a whale preflop, he likely wont fold any piece of the board a huge amount and I overlooked this range being so wide.

However, the combination of him having shitloads of air in his range here and the information that he has somewhat spewy tendencies is going to make it the case that more often than not we're doing pretty damn well vs a turn leading range. Yeah sometimes we're making a mistake and we can't know exactly what his range will be for stabbing the turn for certain, but I think we can happily infer it'll be pretty damn weak. The fact he does have lol lol combos of crap to peel the flop with however may mean it's much closer provided he is a huge station postflop.

Concerning the draws, his flop range contains assloads of Ax and due to the fact he has every Ax under the sun, it contains way more of this than it does draws. We're also really not very far ahead of draws - so one street of money going in with loads of equity due to there being a high likelyhood that he has a weak stabbing range isn't obviously worse imo (again we have reason to believe this guy isn't a passive fish but a retarded one) We're not in awesome shape vs draws and hence any value we do get is minimal since they have so much equity. Him peeling with loads of worse made hands though and having more guttters than I first thought does balacne this and I don't mind betting the flop and turn due to this factor, defo not the river though.

I'm too lazy to make you an EV calc so don't get all homo about that.

[x] fish isolating fish
[x] fish commenting fish isolating fish
[ ] problem with hand

Originally Posted by Carroters

Concerning the draws, his flop range contains assloads of Ax and due to the fact he has every Ax under the sun, it contains way more of this than it does draws.

since he's an 81/13 over a respectable sample, he probably has about as much 8x as he does Ax (would raise AJ pre and prolly some other random combos of Ax, and the only 8x he doesn't have in his range is like 82o-86o).

so he doesn't need that many draws to begin with, there are a shit ton of draws in his range, and like half of those draws are gutshots whose equity you're vastly over-estimating against our second pair hand. i mean, A-high vs a range of FD's, OESD's and a few GSSD's i agree isn't that big of a favorite; but second pair against a range of FD's and a shittonne of GSSDs that can have no more than one over to our pair isn't really a negligible favorite (esp since we have backdoors to the vast majority of FD combos)

Yeah him having loads of gutters we're doing really well against obv changes things. If he's really stationy and peeling with all these + all 8x and crap then our equity when called is gonna look heaps better and betting flop and turn will be fine.

Us vs every possible draw + gutter. I'm tired and lazy jus now so did that very quickly, may not be flawlessly accurate.

Board: Qh As 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.071% 69.77% 00.30% 55258 238.00 { Qs9c }
Hand 1: 29.929% 29.63% 00.30% 23466 238.00 { KTs+, Ks9s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, JdTd, JsTs, Js9s, Js7s, Js6s, J5s, Js4s, Js3s, Js2s, Ts7s, Ts6s, Ts5s, Tc4c, Ts4s, Ts3s, Ts2s, 9s7s, 9s6s, 9s5s, 9s4s, 9s3s, 9s2s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 7s3s, 7s2s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 6s3s, 6s2s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 5s2s, 4s3s, 4c2c, 4d2d, 4s2s, 3s2s, J9o+ }

If he's this much of a whale/station then fist pump bets. Idk why I assumed he wasn't a huge station at first. He could easily flat most of this crap not to mention all the worse Qx and 8x etc. I am converted to betting 2 streets.... Checking has its merits and gets better as villain gets more aggro and less passive/stationy. We haven't really been told what sort of whale he is for sure and I feel we should defo know this by now. If we hand't seen him get tard aggro before Id be more thrilled abouit assuming hes going to passively play a range as wide as this vs a bet. i think we can prolly give him most of these though and feel pretty good about betting unless we've seen him raise a bunch of flops or display anti stationfish behaviors.