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 Originally Posted by daviddem
This. Please calculate in this thread the pot odds you are laying for your opponent with your raise, and calculate the probability that he hit his flush on the next card without you boating up.
Ok, he bet .12 into .36 which is an easy 1:3 (4:1 to call). I raised to .26 making the pot .74 total. Ignoring the other players for a minute, he would have to call .14 into the .74 pot at about 5.3:1.
I left him well more than enough pot odds to call with a flush draw, even if MP2 and SB fold. I think if they both call, he has like 9:1 to call .14 into the pot of 1.26.
To calculate the odds of him turning a flush which does not give me a boat, I guess I count all the diamonds out of 13 except for the 3,8,J and the 2 that he would have to hold. So that is 13-5=8. Then divide 8 into the remaining cards in the dealers hand?
8 players in the hand is 16 hole cards, flop is 3 more cards = 19 total. 52-19 = dealer has 33 cards for the turn. 8/33 = .24 or just under 1/4 cards give him a flush on the turn excluding the J♦ with would make my boat.
This is actually my first attempt at doing any kind of math like this, which makes your question exactly what I need, to learn.
Since two people have suggested that I bet larger in this situation... should I make a PSB on the flop? I guess I should be trying to give him less than 33:8 (4.1:1) pot odds so that he makes a mistake to call, but at the same time, not make the bet so large that he can not call. Is that right? My bet should be mathematically incorrect for him to call, but enticing, nonetheless... and then I hope that he does call with a flush draw?
Does the fact that this flop is 4-way have any affect?
Any comments on my shove after the large bet and call?
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