Flop Bottom Set from UTG

Originally Posted by manfredi

Ok, he bet .12 into .36 which is an easy 1:3 (4:1 to call). I raised to .26 making the pot .74 total. Ignoring the other players for a minute, he would have to call .14 into the .74 pot at about 5.3:1. In % this is 15.9% pot odds. Divide his call by how much the pot would be if he called: 0.14/(0.74+0.14)=0.159...

I left him well more than enough pot odds to call with a flush draw, even if MP2 and SB fold. You don't know that yet, you first need to calculate the probability that he hits his flush. I think if they both call, he has like 9:1 to call .14 into the pot of 1.26.

To calculate the odds of him turning a flush which does not give me a boat, I guess I count all the diamonds out of 13 except for the 3,8,J and the 2 that he would have to hold. So that is 13-5=8. Then divide 8 into the remaining cards in the dealers hand? Yes, divide by the number of remaining cards in the "deck", but not only the dealer's, you have to include all the cards that you cannot see because you have no idea if the cards that the other players are holding are diamonds or not.

8 players in the hand is 16 hole cards, flop is 3 more cards = 19 total. 52-19 = dealer has 33 cards for the turn. 8/33 = .24 or just under 1/4 cards give him a flush on the turn excluding the J♦ with would make my boat. No, that's 52 cards minus all the "known" cards (three cards on the board, your two cards, his two diamonds), so 45 total unknown cards and 8 of these are non J diamonds. So 8/45=17.8% chance of hitting his flush on the next card, which is more than the 15.9% pot odds you are laying for him, so he can call profitably even without implied odds.

This is actually my first attempt at doing any kind of math like this, which makes your question exactly what I need, to learn.
If I may recommend a book about all this, read "no limit theory and practice" by David Sklansky.

Since two people have suggested that I bet larger in this situation... should I make a PSB on the flop? I guess I should be trying to give him less than 33:8 (4.1:1) pot odds so that he makes a mistake to call, but at the same time, not make the bet so large that he can not call. Is that right? My bet should be mathematically incorrect for him to call, but enticing, nonetheless... and then I hope that he does call with a flush draw?
Yes but you have to lay pot odds quite a bit more than the 17.8% chance he has to hit his flush to compensate for the times where he hits his flush and he gets some more money out of you (implied odds), or for the times where he does not really have a flush draw and already has you beat, for example with an overset.

Does the fact that this flop is 4-way have any affect?
Yes because you have to account for the fact that some opps might call behind you, making BB's pot odds better for a call, and also these opps may have draws as well that will pay you off and decrease your chances of winning the hand. 3/4 PSR to PSR seems about right here (please calculate how much a 3/4 pot sized raise and a full pot sized raise would be here).

Any comments on my shove after the large bet and call?
Shove is standard.

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