Flop Bottom Set from UTG

I had just sat; this was the ≈6th hand dealt to me. No reads, unless you count that the SB had only shown down AK,AK,KK,AA in a small sample of previous games on other dates.

2NL (8 handed)

BB ($1.79)
Hero (UTG) ($1.98)
UTG+1 ($1.58)
MP1 ($3.77)
MP2 ($4.35)
CO ($2)
Button ($1.29)
SB ($1.42)


Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3, 3
Hero calls $0.02, 2 folds, MP2 bets $0.09, 2 folds, SB calls $0.08, BB calls $0.07, Hero calls $0.07

I think I should have folded this pre, as I seem to remember reading that 33 has a negative expectation from UTG? On the other hand, isn't there a concept of balancing ranges? Perhaps I should've open raised instead of limping to balance against AK,KK,AA? It boggles the noob mind...

When MP2 raised to 4.5BB, I guess I put his range on the best of the broadways and maybe like TT+. When the blinds both called, I thought it was correct to also call.

Flop: ($0.36) 3, 8, J (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.12, Hero raises to $0.26, MP2 raises to $1.26, 1 fold, BB calls $1.14, Hero raises to $1.89 (All-In), MP2 calls $0.63, BB calls $0.44 (All-In)

When the BB bet 1/3 pot, it looked like a typical flush draw to me. Since I had the set, I raised a little, but kept it smallish so as not to fold out everyone.

MP2 then overbet to ≈1.7x pot. That looks like someone with a made hand trying to protect from draws or just trying to kick it up a notch. Maybe his range is JJ,QQ,KK,AA,AJo,AJs? Honestly, after the BB called, I didn't consider ranges, I just insta-shoved it. Calling seemed bad with no money behind, folding seemed bad with a set, so the shove appeared the only option.

Turn: ($5.84) 6 (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($5.84) 9 (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $5.84 | Rake: $0.38

Should I have folded pre? Folded pre on my second chance? Folded flop? Folded to 1.7x re-raise? I think that I played this hand by feel and AFAIK that's a big problem in poker.

I need advice on the hand and also, advice about my thought process, or lack-there-of. I'm still working on the first pieces of the foundation here...

Open fold this pre UTG. As far as "balancing ranges", you shouldn't have an UTG open limping range that needs balancing really. And you don't need to balance at 2NL.

Calling the $0.07 after MP2 raised, and got 2 callers, is fine.

Raise larger on the flop. If he had a flush draw as you suspected, he is not making a mistake by continuing against your raise, as you are giving him excellent pot odds to call (had MP2 not 3bet for you).

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Raise larger on the flop. If he had a flush draw as you suspected, he is not making a mistake by continuing against your raise, as you are giving him excellent pot odds to call (had MP2 not 3bet for you).

This. Please calculate in this thread the pot odds you are laying for your opponent with your raise, and calculate the probability that he hit his flush on the next card without you boating up.

Originally Posted by daviddem

This. Please calculate in this thread the pot odds you are laying for your opponent with your raise, and calculate the probability that he hit his flush on the next card without you boating up.

Ok, he bet .12 into .36 which is an easy 1:3 (4:1 to call). I raised to .26 making the pot .74 total. Ignoring the other players for a minute, he would have to call .14 into the .74 pot at about 5.3:1.

I left him well more than enough pot odds to call with a flush draw, even if MP2 and SB fold. I think if they both call, he has like 9:1 to call .14 into the pot of 1.26.

To calculate the odds of him turning a flush which does not give me a boat, I guess I count all the diamonds out of 13 except for the 3,8,J and the 2 that he would have to hold. So that is 13-5=8. Then divide 8 into the remaining cards in the dealers hand?

8 players in the hand is 16 hole cards, flop is 3 more cards = 19 total. 52-19 = dealer has 33 cards for the turn. 8/33 = .24 or just under 1/4 cards give him a flush on the turn excluding the J♦ with would make my boat.

This is actually my first attempt at doing any kind of math like this, which makes your question exactly what I need, to learn.

Since two people have suggested that I bet larger in this situation... should I make a PSB on the flop? I guess I should be trying to give him less than 33:8 (4.1:1) pot odds so that he makes a mistake to call, but at the same time, not make the bet so large that he can not call. Is that right? My bet should be mathematically incorrect for him to call, but enticing, nonetheless... and then I hope that he does call with a flush draw?

Does the fact that this flop is 4-way have any affect?

Any comments on my shove after the large bet and call?

open-fold pre. Easy game. Don't even think about trying to balance your EP open-limping range. You could raise pre if you want to i guess. But don't. Once he raises and the other callers join in you obviously have to call.

flop and you can either raise or call - if you're going to raise then at least raise a decent amount, as played you're giving bb direct pot odds to call if he does indeed have a flush draw. Once the 3b happens you're obviously getting it in vs 88/JJ+/AJ/KJ

Originally Posted by manfredi

Ok, he bet .12 into .36 which is an easy 1:3 (4:1 to call). I raised to .26 making the pot .74 total. Ignoring the other players for a minute, he would have to call .14 into the .74 pot at about 5.3:1. In % this is 15.9% pot odds. Divide his call by how much the pot would be if he called: 0.14/(0.74+0.14)=0.159...

I left him well more than enough pot odds to call with a flush draw, even if MP2 and SB fold. You don't know that yet, you first need to calculate the probability that he hits his flush. I think if they both call, he has like 9:1 to call .14 into the pot of 1.26.

To calculate the odds of him turning a flush which does not give me a boat, I guess I count all the diamonds out of 13 except for the 3,8,J and the 2 that he would have to hold. So that is 13-5=8. Then divide 8 into the remaining cards in the dealers hand? Yes, divide by the number of remaining cards in the "deck", but not only the dealer's, you have to include all the cards that you cannot see because you have no idea if the cards that the other players are holding are diamonds or not.

8 players in the hand is 16 hole cards, flop is 3 more cards = 19 total. 52-19 = dealer has 33 cards for the turn. 8/33 = .24 or just under 1/4 cards give him a flush on the turn excluding the J♦ with would make my boat. No, that's 52 cards minus all the "known" cards (three cards on the board, your two cards, his two diamonds), so 45 total unknown cards and 8 of these are non J diamonds. So 8/45=17.8% chance of hitting his flush on the next card, which is more than the 15.9% pot odds you are laying for him, so he can call profitably even without implied odds.

This is actually my first attempt at doing any kind of math like this, which makes your question exactly what I need, to learn.
If I may recommend a book about all this, read "no limit theory and practice" by David Sklansky.

Since two people have suggested that I bet larger in this situation... should I make a PSB on the flop? I guess I should be trying to give him less than 33:8 (4.1:1) pot odds so that he makes a mistake to call, but at the same time, not make the bet so large that he can not call. Is that right? My bet should be mathematically incorrect for him to call, but enticing, nonetheless... and then I hope that he does call with a flush draw?
Yes but you have to lay pot odds quite a bit more than the 17.8% chance he has to hit his flush to compensate for the times where he hits his flush and he gets some more money out of you (implied odds), or for the times where he does not really have a flush draw and already has you beat, for example with an overset.

Does the fact that this flop is 4-way have any affect?
Yes because you have to account for the fact that some opps might call behind you, making BB's pot odds better for a call, and also these opps may have draws as well that will pay you off and decrease your chances of winning the hand. 3/4 PSR to PSR seems about right here (please calculate how much a 3/4 pot sized raise and a full pot sized raise would be here).

Any comments on my shove after the large bet and call?
Shove is standard.

.

Why he should open fold 33 UTG pre?

Why its not good for set mining?

Originally Posted by zW00pa1

Why he should open fold 33 UTG pre?

Why its not good for set mining?

[x] Limp/calling is fishy and you have ZERO initiative postflop
[x] Limp/calling and suddenly coming alive turns your set faceup vs anyone that's paying attention
[x] You're prone to a better set
[x] By limping you're inviting other marginal hands in on the cheap - small pairs do not play well multi-way
[x] It's harder to get creative/paid off when we do hit since we're OOP

I could go on...

So we never open limp from UTG with any small pp or any hand ?
Is there any situation or position that we open limp with small pp?
Why small pp dont play well multyway ?

I hate to open limp and do it next to never. I may limp IP behind several others with a small sc or small pp...but never open limp.

Dump small pp in EP, open raise in lp.

Unless you hit a set there will be several hands that will be better.

Just my opinion

Originally Posted by daviddem

Ok, he bet .12 into .36 which is an easy 1:3 (4:1 to call). I raised to .26 making the pot .74 total. Ignoring the other players for a minute, he would have to call .14 into the .74 pot at about 5.3:1. In % this is 15.9% pot odds. Divide his call by how much the pot would be if he called: 0.14/(0.74+0.14)=0.159...

I left him well more than enough pot odds to call with a flush draw, even if MP2 and SB fold. You don't know that yet, you first need to calculate the probability that he hits his flush. I think if they both call, he has like 9:1 to call .14 into the pot of 1.26.

Well, this seems to be a fundamental error on my part. To calculate his pot odds, his call is included as part of the pot? Ok, he has to call .14 and the pot will be .88, so his odds are .14/.88=15.9% or ≈6.3:1, as you said. My small raise apparently accomplished nothing, except to make the pot larger and still leave him positive expectation if he has a flush draw. That sounds like a bad combination.

Originally Posted by daviddem

To calculate the odds of him turning a flush which does not give me a boat, I guess I count all the diamonds out of 13 except for the 3,8,J and the 2 that he would have to hold. So that is 13-5=8. Then divide 8 into the remaining cards in the dealers hand? Yes, divide by the number of remaining cards in the "deck", but not only the dealer's, you have to include all the cards that you cannot see because you have no idea if the cards that the other players are holding are diamonds or not.

I will try that again. There are 13 diamonds - 2 on the flop = 11. The J♦ would give me a full house, so that is subtracted also? And he must hold 2 diamonds to be on a 4-flush. So there are 8 diamonds left that do not give me a boat. 52 cards - 2 in my hand, 3 in the flop, and 2 in his hand = 45 remaining cards. 8 diamonds out of 45 cards is 17.78% I suppose this assumes that he does not hold the J♦, in which case there are 9 diamonds out of 45 cards = 20% or 4:1 break even pot odds for a flush draw?

Originally Posted by daviddem

8 players in the hand is 16 hole cards, flop is 3 more cards = 19 total. 52-19 = dealer has 33 cards for the turn. 8/33 = .24 or just under 1/4 cards give him a flush on the turn excluding the J♦ with would make my boat. No, that's 52 cards minus all the "known" cards (three cards on the board, your two cards, his two diamonds), so 35 total unknown cards and 8 of these are non J diamonds. So 8/35=22.8% chance of hitting his flush on the next card, which is more than the 15.9% pot odds you are laying for him, so he can easily call profitably even without implied odds.

I'm guessing that I confused you with my previous mathematical error, or you mistyped 35 instead of 45 unknown cards? Is it preferable to assume that he has the J♦, for a worst-case-scenario calculation of flush draw pot odds?

Originally Posted by daviddem

This is actually my first attempt at doing any kind of math like this, which makes your question exactly what I need, to learn.
If I may recommend a book about all this, read "no limit theory and practice" by David Sklansky.

Since two people have suggested that I bet larger in this situation... should I make a PSB on the flop? I guess I should be trying to give him less than 33:8 (4.1:1) pot odds so that he makes a mistake to call, but at the same time, not make the bet so large that he can not call. Is that right? My bet should be mathematically incorrect for him to call, but enticing, nonetheless... and then I hope that he does call with a flush draw?
Yes but you have to lay pot odds quite a bit more than the 22.8% chance he has to hit his flush to compensate for the times where he hits his flush and he gets some more money out of you (implied odds), or for the times where he does not really have a flush draw and already has you beat, for example with an overset.

Does the fact that this flop is 4-way have any affect?
Yes because you have to account for the fact that some opps might call behind you, making BB's pot odds better for a call, and also these opps may have draws as well that will pay you off and decrease your chances of winning the hand. 3/4 PSR to PSR seems about right here (please calculate how much a 3/4 pot sized raise and a full pot sized raise would be here).

I have the book and am still working on reading it. I found the chapter on bet sizing.

Hmm... ok, he bet .12 into the pot, which was .36, for a total of .48 -- you said 3/4 PSR and I believe you have posted a formula for that, recently... P=pot+B. You say "To make a 2/3rd pot sized raise, we raise 2/3rd of P extra on top of B. So we raise to B + (2/3) * P." I guess I can substitute 3/4ths for 2/3rds:

Raise to B +((3/4)*(pot+B))
Raise to .12 + ((3/4)*(.36+12))
Raise to .12 + ((.75)*(.48))
Raise to .12 + .36
Raise to .48

He must call .36 into a pot which will be 1.32 (.48 after his raise, plus .48, plus .36). That gives him .36/1.32 odds = 27% or 3.66:1. 27% price is greater than 20% outs, so he is incorrect to call if the other people in the hand both fold.

Full PSR:
Pot is .48 + his .12 bet = raise to .60

He must call .48 into a pot which will be 1.56 (.48 after his raise, plus .60, plus .48) That gives him .48/1.56 odds = 31% or 3.25:1. If I get one caller out of the two opponents between me and him, then he still is getting .48/2.16 = 22% price : 20% outs which seems quite narrow since you mentioned implied odds and oversets.

Have I done this right?

Originally Posted by daviddem

Any comments on my shove after the large bet and call?
Shove is standard.

I plugged their ranges into stove with BB having any two diamonds and MP2 having various ranges like {JJ+,88,AJo,AJs}. I couldn't find any way to bring my equity to lower than 48% unless I put MP2 on only {JJ,88}. So 'shove is standard' because 48% equity is much greater than 33% of a 3 way shove?

Originally Posted by daven

open-fold pre. Easy game. Don't even think about trying to balance your EP open-limping range. You could raise pre if you want to i guess. But don't. Once he raises and the other callers join in you obviously have to call.

flop and you can either raise or call - if you're going to raise then at least raise a decent amount, as played you're giving bb direct pot odds to call if he does indeed have a flush draw. Once the 3b happens you're obviously getting it in vs 88/JJ+/AJ/KJ

Yeah, I think it was bad to open limp with 33. When I mentioned balance, I meant should I have opened 33 for a raise, instead of limping.

I do play 2NL and a standard open raise of 3.5BB from UTG is usually folded all the way around and treated like QQ,KK,AA,AK. People seem to only call with hands that beat that range.

Should I expand my open raise range to maybe include JJ,TT? And then not have an open limping range? Or should I keep the range tight and flip a coin whether I limp or raise?

UTG is pretty unsafe for small pp because you still have everybody left to act after you, which here includes the two big stacks. Had you been acting after them then you might have a good opportunity to setmine, but here it's best just to dump 'em.

Some may call me too loose, and other may say I'm too nitty but UTG I open raise 88+, AJo+, ATs for about 3 to 4 bb and dump the rest.

Originally Posted by manfredi

I do play 2NL and a standard open raise of 3.5BB from UTG is usually folded all the way around and treated like QQ,KK,AA,AK. People seem to only call with hands that beat that range.

bet this isn't true...

Originally Posted by manfredi

Should I expand my open raise range to maybe include JJ,TT? And then not have an open limping range? Or should I keep the range tight and flip a coin whether I limp or raise?

don't open limp JJ ffs

now go read this thread in full
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ay-184995.html

Originally Posted by manfredi

Well, this seems to be a fundamental error on my part. To calculate his pot odds, his call is included as part of the pot? Ok, he has to call .14 and the pot will be .88, so his odds are .14/.88=15.9% or ≈6.3:1, as you said. My small raise apparently accomplished nothing, except to make the pot larger and still leave him positive expectation if he has a flush draw. That sounds like a bad combination.
No you only include his call when you calculate pot odds as a %. When you calculate in the x:y format, then don't. Your initial 5.3:1 was correct. To convert x:y odds to %, do y/(x+y)


I will try that again. There are 13 diamonds - 2 on the flop = 11. The J♦ would give me a full house, so that is subtracted also? And he must hold 2 diamonds to be on a 4-flush. So there are 8 diamonds left that do not give me a boat. 52 cards - 2 in my hand, 3 in the flop, and 2 in his hand = 45 remaining cards. 8 diamonds out of 45 cards is 17.78% I suppose this assumes that he does not hold the J♦, in which case there are 9 diamonds out of 45 cards = 20% or 4:1 break even pot odds for a flush draw?




I'm guessing that I confused you with my previous mathematical error, or you mistyped 35 instead of 45 unknown cards? Is it preferable to assume that he has the J♦, for a worst-case-scenario calculation of flush draw pot odds?

Yes I made a mistake, it's 45 cards. I am going to correct this in my post. If you want to take into account that he could be holding the J, then you would count "a little more than 8 outs", like 8.1 or 8.2. On the other hand, he could also hit his flush on the turn and you hit your last 2 on the river. The way to obtain really precise equities is to plug ranges into Pokerstove.

I have the book and am still working on reading it. I found the chapter on bet sizing.

Hmm... ok, he bet .12 into the pot, which was .36, for a total of .48 -- you said 3/4 PSR and I believe you have posted a formula for that, recently... P=pot+B. You say "To make a 2/3rd pot sized raise, we raise 2/3rd of P extra on top of B. So we raise to B + (2/3) * P." I guess I can substitute 3/4ths for 2/3rds:
"pot" in the formula is the size of the pot just before you play (after he bet), so pot=0.48, not 0.36 and B=0.12...
Raise to B +((3/4)*(pot+B))
Raise to .12 + ((3/4)*(.36+12))
Raise to .12 + ((.75)*(.48))
Raise to .12 + .36
Raise to .48

He must call .36 into a pot which will be 1.32 (.48 after his raise, plus .48, plus .36). That gives him .36/1.32 odds = 27% or 3.66:1. 27% price is greater than 20% outs, so he is incorrect to call if the other people in the hand both fold.

Full PSR:
Pot is .48 + his .12 bet = raise to .60
Same remark as above
He must call .48 into a pot which will be 1.56 (.48 after his raise, plus .60, plus .48) That gives him .48/1.56 odds = 31% or 3.25:1. If I get one caller out of the two opponents between me and him, then he still is getting .48/2.16 = 22% price : 20% outs which seems quite narrow since you mentioned implied odds and oversets.

Have I done this right?


I plugged their ranges into stove with BB having any two diamonds and MP2 having various ranges like {JJ+,88,AJo,AJs}. I couldn't find any way to bring my equity to lower than 48% unless I put MP2 on only {JJ,88}. So 'shove is standard' because 48% equity is much greater than 33% of a 3 way shove?Yes

.

Originally Posted by StarGrinder

small pairs do not play well multi-way

wat