Just stopping in!

Checked out hand 4 (228) c/r board. I think your logic makes sense, but I think your sizing on the flop will strongly influence how correct your assumptions/thought process is.

If you make it 210 from 80, then I agree that his range is weak and he'll be folding lots on the turn etc. But, when you make it 300, you strongly polarize it to hands that will continue further.